Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

I think the "woke" point is interesting because, for all the complaints about tone-policing, it generally seems like the issues people have are about tone:

A number of themes did emerge, however. One was that the party had been taken over by unrepresentative activists who were much further to the left than most people, including Labour voters: "They're pandering to a minority of members, the Momentum movement, which is too left-wing for me, I'm more middle of the road. I've been watching what's going on and thinking 'there's no way I'm voting for this shower';" "Thatcher and the pit closures was 40 years ago, it's ancient history now. I've got to look at what's best for me and my family. Is it socialism bordering on communism, or the centre right, a focus on business, looking forward?" "A lot of them are quite educated people but it's fashionable to be well-off and educated and be a socialist. They haven't lived the kind of life we've all lived in a steel town;" "Corbyn and Momentum have hijacked the Labour Party. If any moderate Labour MP speaks out, they get rentamob. McDonnell is the ringleader;" "It's not a mainstream political party anymore, it's a cult around Corbyn."

Partly because of this, some also felt the party had come to embody an excessively politically correct or "woke" culture, which would be intolerant of what they considered sensible, mainstream views: "Sarah Champion in Rotherham was booted out for saying the vast majority of child abuse groups were from ethnic minorities. She was speaking the truth, but because it was 'racially insensitive' it was, 'oh, you can't say that'. Why? It's 100% true;" "They're classing themselves as liberals but won't let anyone else have a different viewpoint;" "You're a bigot if you don't agree there are 125 different genders;" "They can be woke, but they can also be vitriolic. I've heard them say things to Conservatives where I thought, 'well, that wasn't very nice';" "The other day Jeremy Corbyn even did his pronouns! He said, 'my name's Jeremy Corbyn and my pronouns are 'him' and 'his.' You can Google it!"

And I suppose to me the focus on the seats where Labour lost makes sense because they're trying to find out why Labour lost and the answer is in those seats.

I think this is key:

This led many to feel that Labour had taken them and their votes for granted while understanding and representing them less and less: "They expect you to vote the way your father did, which we can see isn't always the case now. They think, 'oh, they'll vote for us anyway';" "They relied on a heavy-spending manifesto, arrogantly assuming their voters are so uneducated that they won't ask who's paying for it. The working man knows things aren't free;" "They take you for granted in places like this that they think are the heartland. But if you raise something they don't like,it's like Kiosk Keith –the shutters come down."

Because it reminds me of Scotland which should be a flashing red-light for Labour.

[Josquius]

Its weird as it kind of connects but also goes completely contrary to what I see as the problem.
My big criticism of Corbyn, aside from general competence, would be that he was too stuck in the past. Too concerned with the idea of a country based on industrial towns and factory workers. Too focussed on the steel town guy rather than the more typical call centre worker. Not recognising that as crap as the deindustrialisation of the UK was, that the world today is different and we have to look forward.

Wokeness.... I see the influence of the internet with some American rhetoric invading there. "Socialism bordering on communism"
Its one of the weirdest things of the past decade in the UK that socialism has become a dirty word.

Also something I find really curious is the trend these days for "You just call everyone you don't like a racist/nazi/whatever!". You see this complaint far more than you actually do see people being called these things. This mental image has been built up that this is the way people are viewed without anyone actually calling them that; it goes both ways of course, increasingly I do see bots/idiots pushing the once fictional view themselves. A disturbing radicalisation from some anti brexit corners for instance.

Note the 125 genders bit there... some real evidence of far right memes in the views of the respondents. The majority of sex offenders are minorities too...


As to Scotland...fuck knows what the thing to do is there.
The SNP have done too good a job of creating a big tent that encourages both the BNP-types and progressives to vote for them.
The morally correct thing for Labour to do is to support a referendum even if they oppose independence. But this just doesn't sell. The full fat "Rule Britannia" of the Tories or "Screw the English" of the SNP will always win out.

[Sheilbh]

Wokeness.... I see the influence of the internet with some American rhetoric invading there. "Socialism bordering on communism"
Its one of the weirdest things of the past decade in the UK that socialism has become a dirty word.

Hasn't it been this way for about 30 years or more though? New Labour never used "socialism" to describe their policies except in a "if by socialism you mean equality of opportunity" kind of way. I don't think Kinnock used it much after the mid-80s.

That may actually be part of the reason that voters felt it was backwards looking? I also feel like the use of socialism is possibly a bit of an invasion of American rhetoric - I feel like the use of "socialism" to describe people's politics in the UK has increased since 2016 and the exposure to Bernie and AOC and the DSA - and it refers to that type of politics rather than, say, "British" socialism early post-war Labour.

Also something I find really curious is the trend these days for "You just call everyone you don't like a racist/nazi/whatever!". You see this complaint far more than you actually do see people being called these things. This mental image has been built up that this is the way people are viewed without anyone actually calling them that; it goes both ways of course, increasingly I do see bots/idiots pushing the once fictional view themselves. A disturbing radicalisation from some anti brexit corners for instance.

Agreed. I wonder if on that it's more around the "never kissed a Tory"/"Tory scum" sort of stuff?

Note the 125 genders bit there... some real evidence of far right memes in the views of the respondents. The majority of sex offenders are minorities too...

Agreed - although the Sarah Champion thing was about the child grooming rings of minicab drivers in her constituency. It's one of those things that's difficult and nuanced and she probably shouldn't have written a piece in the Sun about it because we know how the Sun will treat it.

As to Scotland...fuck knows what the thing to do is there.
The SNP have done too good a job of creating a big tent that encourages both the BNP-types and progressives to vote for them.
The morally correct thing for Labour to do is to support a referendum even if they oppose independence. But this just doesn't sell. The full fat "Rule Britannia" of the Tories or "Screw the English" of the SNP will always win out.

The comparison I was thinking with Scotland was people feeling taken for granted, not listened to, ignored by the Labour Party because where else are they going to go? I get a sense from those focus group comments that there's a similar sense. That's what I think should cause panic for Labour because I think if people feel ignored and they move on to vote for someone else (and they get used to that) it's really difficult to win them back - hell it goes for relationships as well as voting

[Admiral Yi]

Not really on Brexit, sorry.

Shelf, do you have a link, or know personally, whether Jackie had the legal right to boot those guys from the Handforth Council meeting?  I haven't been able to google anything that specifically answers that question.

[Sheilbh]

Not really on Brexit, sorry.

Shelf, do you have a link, or know personally, whether Jackie had the legal right to boot those guys from the Handforth Council meeting?  I haven't been able to google anything that specifically answers that question.

I think there's quite a strong argument that she did, indeed, have the authority:
https://davidallengreen.com/2021/02/did-jackie-weaver-have-the-authority-the-law-and-policy-of-that-handforth-parish-council-meeting/

[Sheilbh]

I've mentioned before that there's a few bots that basically tweet vote profiles from the various elections studies. They are always worth following for just how wonderful and unpredictable we all are as voters. For example, from the 2019 election:

I'm a 30 year old university educated woman in East Lothian

Think of myself as Scottish not British

In 2017 voted Con & voted Con in 2019

Support Yes + Remain

On the back of this the (very good) SNP defence spokesman in Westminster shared an anecdote from when he was canvassing of meeting a woman who was voting for the SNP because she was a unionist. He said they just banked the vote and quickly moved on rather than trying to pry into the logic behind that

Edit: Another anecdote from canvassing - a man who voted for Leave and was planning to vote Lib Dem because he wanted to get Brexit done

It's amazing - folk are varied. I don't know if this sort of reflects everyone's natural instinct to chaos or if voters just have an innate understanding of intensifying the contradictions.

Edit: Also not seen this before and found it kind of interesting. It is time for the boundary changes to constituencies.  The Boundary Commissions haven't given their initial proposals yet but there is a map that shows where the constituencies are likely to need redrawing:


This should be done every 10 years (after the census), but the 2011 review never managed to get approved by the Commons. They tried different variations in 2011, 2013 and 2018 but Labour and some Tory MPs always opposed them. It's likely this review will be approved - in part there'll be a national re-balancing (England is slightly under-represented, Scotland marginally and Wales significantly over-represented).

There are quite strict rules on how contituencies should be drawn, but it's likely it will broadly favour the Tories (estimates are it'll probably increase their expected seats by about 10). There will be some new seats in inner urban areas in London, Liverpool, Leeds and Manchester because those areas have boomed and will go for Labour.

But most of the areas with too many voters that need to be re-drawn are in Tory-ier areas. But there will also probably be a lot of swing seats created as there are still outer urban areas that are shrinking so it's likely those constituencies will wither be split with nearby inner urban areas to create those new Labour areas or merged with suburban and rural areas. It's less clear who'll benefit there. For example on that map it's clear that there'll need to be more seats in Liverpool - but all of the seats on the Wirral now have too few voters so they'll probably be merged in some way.

And proposals won't be released until 2023 ahead of the next election but the work starts now

[Agelastus]

Remind me - is this another attempt at a 500 seat boundary review, or a standard "we want around 630-650 seats" review?

[Sheilbh]

Remind me - is this another attempt at a 500 seat boundary review, or a standard "we want around 630-650 seats" review?

650.

The Cameroon reduction to 600 is still the legal basis for the last review, but this (new) review will be on the basis of 650 seats.

[Zanza]

Looking at that map: why was the Isle of Man never annexed into the United Kingdom?

I can see why the Duchy of Normandy (Channel Islands) was not annexed, but Man? An oversight in the various Acts of Union?

[The Larch]

Looking at that map: why was the Isle of Man never annexed into the United Kingdom?

I can see why the Duchy of Normandy (Channel Islands) was not annexed, but Man? An oversight in the various Acts of Union?

My money is on "weird medieval arrangement that nobody bothered to update for the modern world".

[celedhring]

Looking at that map: why was the Isle of Man never annexed into the United Kingdom?

I can see why the Duchy of Normandy (Channel Islands) was not annexed, but Man? An oversight in the various Acts of Union?

My money is on "weird medieval arrangement that nobody bothered to update for the modern world".

My favorite Spanish one is Isla de los Faisanes, which goes back and forth between Spain and France every 6 months.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pheasant_Island

[Sheilbh]

Looking at that map: why was the Isle of Man never annexed into the United Kingdom?

I can see why the Duchy of Normandy (Channel Islands) was not annexed, but Man? An oversight in the various Acts of Union?

I have Manx family (which is rare) so I should know the answer to this - but it's never been part of the UK or the EU for that matter.

I think it's because it was always self-governing from before the English and Scots (both) claimed it. So Tynwald (the Manx parliament and a legacy of the Norse - the flag of the Tynwald is a longship ) claims to be the longest continuous parliamentary body in the world (it claims to have started in the 10th century). I think the Icelandic Althing is the oldest but, according to the Manx, there were gaps so they've been going for longer

So the King of Scotland or England (depending on who had the island at that time) would appoint a Lord of Mann to basically oversee and have a veto over the Tynwald, but that was the extent of interference by the mainland. When the Anglo-Scots union happened the Lord of Mann wasn't actually a title held by the crown which may be why they weren't included.

Looking at Wiki it appears that there was a Royal Commission which looked into this in the 1790s (so the decade before the Act of Union with Ireland):

...in respect to government and laws, the Manks appear, in all ages to have been a distinct people, and in some degree an independent, or not annexed to any other kingdom... The people, however, beyond all written record, have clearly within claimed and enjoyed the right and privilege of being governed and regulated by laws of their own making, or consented to by themselves, or by their constitutional representative...

To maintain this independence of the Legislature, is held to be the first duty of every Manxman... they dread therefore and must ever dread, the interference in their internal concerns, or even a precedent being made for such interference from any other legislature on earth; even the British...

So it seems like, uncharacteristically, the British investigated and decided to respect local feeling

However I can confirm from my own family that the Manx are very distinct people and they do not like any interference with Manx affairs. The Isle of Man had corporal punishment, for example, until the 70s or 80s (it was abolished following a European Court of Human Rights case about a shoplifting teenage tourist from Scotland) - which my nan always regreted. They do not like any interference by outsiders. And there's a huge amount of superstition everywhere - fairy bridge, fairy trees, can't name certain animals (rats are longtails or vermin - if you said "rat" my aunty would touch wood or cross her fingers, there's similar things about rabbits, hares, cats), you'll often see evil eye like pendants on door frames to keep away bad fairies etc. It's a very odd place

Edit: I should say basically all of my family is from the Celtic fringes of these isles but mainly Ireland and the Isle of Man. If I put on the cap of knowing Irish history and read that excerpt from the Royal Commission in the 1790s it is mindblowing

[The Larch]

And, besides its quaint superstitions, it also unsurprisingly makes a living as a very modern world tax haven. 

The Isle of Man is a low-tax economy with no capital gains tax, wealth tax, stamp duty, or inheritance tax; and a top rate of income tax of 20%. A tax cap is in force: the maximum amount of tax payable by an individual is £125,000; or £250,000 for couples if they choose to have their incomes jointly assessed. Personal income is assessed and taxed on a total worldwide income basis rather than on a remittance basis. This means that all income earned throughout the world is assessable for Manx tax, rather than only income earned in or brought into the Island.

The standard rate of corporation tax for residents and non-residents is 0%; retail business profits above £500,000 and banking business income are taxed at 10%, and rental (or other) income from land and buildings situated on the Isle of Man is taxed at 20%.

In a report the European Council lists the Isle of Man together with the other two Crown Dependencies (Guernsey and Jersey) as well as Bermuda, the Cayman Islands and Vanuatu, as committed to addressing the Council's concerns of "Existence of tax regimes that facilitate offshore structures which attract profits without real economic activity" by 2018.

Insurance, banking (includes retail banking, offshore banking and other banking services), other finance and business services, and corporate service providers together contribute the most to the GNI and most of the jobs, with 10,057 people employed in 2016

Among the largest employers of the Island's private sector are eGaming (online gambling) companies like The Stars Group, Microgaming, Newfield, and Playtech.

[Tamas]

See Sheilbh that's my earlier point re. Britain - you can see how a small island is very odd, stands to reason a large island will be a bit odd

[Sheilbh]

Absolutely.

Though I'd slightly carve out e-gaming. The Isle of Man when my family were there basically had two industries: tourism and subsistance farming/fishing (my family were crofters). A big part of the tourism sector was that they had quite lax gambling rules so there were a lot of quite big casinos for Irish and British visitors. Famously they got Sean Connery as James Bond to open one of the big ones. So there's always been a gaming sector there and, unlike Nevada (I think) or the mainland UK, there aren't many restrictions. It's an industry they kind of have developed over decades (a bit like a cold Macau) rather than something very new like gaming in Malta.

And there's lots of local resentment of the financial sector because it doesn't really employ locals except as cleaning staff and IT technicians. They get the bankers and the lawyers from London or wherever.

Having said that the Isle of Man is beginning to move under international pressure (so they're starting to require information on beneficial ownership which will be published etc). You might get the odd Manx or Jersey company involved in a corporate structure but in my experience only really with UK companies or for UK properties (because they're the cheap local tax havens - and more often I think individual tax havens - if you're super-rich internationally without too many assets in the UK you're likely to choose a sunnier tax haven). For international corporate structuring tax avoidance I'd be looking far more closely at Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Delaware and Nevada, the BVI, Belize etc.