Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

Started by Josquius, February 20, 2016, 07:46:34 AM

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How would you vote on Britain remaining in the EU?

British- Remain
12 (12%)
British - Leave
7 (7%)
Other European - Remain
21 (21%)
Other European - Leave
6 (6%)
ROTW - Remain
34 (34%)
ROTW - Leave
20 (20%)

Total Members Voted: 98

Sheilbh

Quote from: Tamas on October 12, 2020, 09:09:45 AM
Reading the Guardian coverage I am under the distinct feeling most regions and cities have managed to convince the government to water their tier down so they don't have to close them pubs.
I think it depends. The impression I get - mainly from the Manchester Evening News and the Liverpool Echo - is that Tory areas with an outbreak are convincing the government not to shut down hospitality. Places that vote Labour have less success.

The issue is really about money. Either the government doesn't shut down hospitality in areas in which case the sector can survive (to an extent) or they put an area in lockdown in which case they need to give more support to businesses and workers. I don't think the government have quite grasped this yet but it's being felt in, say, Liverpool and Manchester.
Let's bomb Russia!

Sheilbh

#13711
Quote from: garbon on October 12, 2020, 06:24:13 AM
Isn't this lovely?


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/12/ballet-dancer-could-reskill-with-job-in-cyber-security-suggests-uk-government-ad
Sometimes the internet is great :lol:


Edit: And apparently that poster's less sinister than it seemed. It wasn't actually issued by the government recently, but was one of a number of posters used in 2019 which was aimed at promoting careers in cyber to kids and adults:
Let's bomb Russia!

Valmy

Quote from: Tamas on October 12, 2020, 06:41:36 AM
What's "cyber" anyway?

Ok. I knew it was some kind of British thing because it kind of looked like they were saying she was going to become a sex worker.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

Sheilbh

Also the government (at last) has said they'll have a widget on .gov.uk so you can enter your postcode and discover what the rules are in your area. But it's not ready yet and will take a little while to develop.

The Telegraph has already basically made it:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/12/three-tier-lockdown-map-tier-area-following-boris-johnsons-announcement/
:bleeding:
Let's bomb Russia!

The Minsky Moment

Donald's current job could be in cyber

(only Vlad knows it yet)
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

Sheilbh

Latest SAGE advice says that curfews have minimal effect.

By some distance what looks like the most effective measure would be forcing everyone to socialise outside - which I'm keen for. Bring on the fire-pits, markets, everyone wrapping up and we can still have friends this winter (and have a public health reason to buy more knitwear :wub:) :o :w00t:

Inevitably the government will do the opposite and focus on lockdowns trapping people in badly ventilated spaces instead <_<
Let's bomb Russia!

garbon

Quote from: Sheilbh on October 13, 2020, 07:06:18 AM
Latest SAGE advice says that curfews have minimal effect.

By some distance what looks like the most effective measure would be forcing everyone to socialise outside - which I'm keen for. Bring on the fire-pits, markets, everyone wrapping up and we can still have friends this winter (and have a public health reason to buy more knitwear :wub:) :o :w00t:

Inevitably the government will do the opposite and focus on lockdowns trapping people in badly ventilated spaces instead <_<

Ah, England. That place with accommodating autumn and winter weather. :P
"I've never been quite sure what the point of a eunuch is, if truth be told. It seems to me they're only men with the useful bits cut off."
I drank because I wanted to drown my sorrows, but now the damned things have learned to swim.

Tamas

We are just screwed. The whole original point of lockdown was/should had been as I understood was to save the NHS and prepare a system which could keep the outbreak under reasonable control. I am not saying most of the world have done better in this regard, but it seems to be we are just going through the motions of trying to not do a second lockdown while we know it is coming.

And we will be emerging from it next Spring to experience the practical aspects of no deal Brexit for the first time. I don't think Boris is going to serve out his 5 year term.

Sheilbh

Quote from: garbon on October 13, 2020, 07:38:56 AM

Ah, England. That place with accommodating autumn and winter weather. :P
Hence the fire pits, knitwear and warming mulled drinks. I also think given how grim everything is now we should put up Christmas decorations at the end of the month - as well as ready availability of warm mince pies and hot alcoholic drinks. Layers! :w00t:

QuoteAnd we will be emerging from it next Spring to experience the practical aspects of no deal Brexit for the first time. I don't think Boris is going to serve out his 5 year term.
I could see him stepping down. But the Tories are the most ruthless (and adaptable) party in the western world which is why they're so successful - if he is harming their prospects of winning re-election they will get rid of him very quickly.
Let's bomb Russia!

Sheilbh

On Brexit interesting report on RTE that both sides seem to be moving closer to some sort of deal. They're reporting positive noises from London (which is standard) but also that Barnier's team are moving into more detailed and focused conversations.

On state aid it looks like the UK is willing to move to something beyond standard FTA terms and possibly developing some joint principles in the agreement. Apparently draft papers have been exchanged and both sides think there's been movement. The key issues are likely to be whether the EU believes the UK regulator (I imagine the Competitions and Markets Authority) is independent etc and allowing the EU to retaliate without using the dispute resolution mechanism which will be slow. Again this is developing but isn't a million miles from what the position is under the WTO from my understanding, just more bespoke.

There's still issues around the "ratchet clauses", so this is basically about updating the LPF in different areas. This is more than non-regression because the EU (and UK) framework will develop, but it's not full dynamic alignment (the UK automatically follows the EU). Apparently what's being worked on is that there will be a mechanism for the parties to agree new LPF levels, but this will be mutually agreed not a unilateral process. But both of these issues feel basically solveable if the parties want to do it.

The thing that slightly concerns me is that no-one is moving at all on fisheries. This is the one area where I think the EU position is just absurd and full-blown cherry-picking. Barnier has described as wanting to behave as if nothing has changed - and apparently Barnier has been criticised by fisheries ministers for not using his leverage in other areas to ensure a good deal on fisheries. Barnier has asked to "explore the flexibility in his mandate" on fisheries, but this has been rejected by member states - he was apparently left pretty frustrated after meeting with the fisheries ministers. The reason I find this bit alarming is that both sides basically think that fisheries are so small that the other side won't possibly reject a deal over it which is exactly the sort of issue that could scupper a deal (and in the defence of fisheries ministers the real issue is that many fishing communities focus on one type of catch so an adjustment to the fishing of one species may be tiny even in the context of the deal on fisheries but will have huge impact on specific communities) :ph34r:

Also interesting detail in the on-going implementation of the Northern Ireland protocol where the civil service are in the very challenging position of having to implement bits relating to agriculture against the policy of their minister in the Stormont government who is very opposed to and has publicly denounced the protocol.
Let's bomb Russia!

Sheilbh

Also the spreadsheet of who received money from the governments arts funding thing has come out and I'm seeing people kicking off about Secret Cinema receiving it because it is basically gentrifiers/bankers paying £60 to dress up as Indiana Jones and watch Temple of Doom. Which is an absolutely fair critique of going to Secret Cinema, but that's not the point really, right?

I swear this has happened every time information's released about who is/isn't taking advantage of government schemes for recovery or furlough or whatever.

I don't get it and find it kind of annoying. The purpose of these isn't to support good or worthy organisations, it's to help all organisations and businesses (who can get the money) to survive. Like yes I get that the cultural output of Secret Cinema is not amazing or particularly affordable and it isn't important to the UK film scene - but that's not the point. This isn't a subsidy to help develop the cultural worth of the UK it's to help organisations get by. I don't know if I'm missing a point but I find this response just weird (and possibly not a million miles from judging/shaming people for being in a park etc in the early days of lockdown). I have no issue with them bailing out basically anyone who can't operate because of government restrictions - isn't that the point?
Let's bomb Russia!

garbon

Quote from: Sheilbh on October 13, 2020, 07:58:22 AM
Quote from: garbon on October 13, 2020, 07:38:56 AM

Ah, England. That place with accommodating autumn and winter weather. :P
Hence the fire pits, knitwear and warming mulled drinks. I also think given how grim everything is now we should put up Christmas decorations at the end of the month - as well as ready availability of warm mince pies and hot alcoholic drinks. Layers! :w00t:

Don't think any of that will keep us from being wet. ;)  Also, that all sounds suspiciously like Winter Wonderland. :x

We went last weekend to get our decorations out of storage in advance of expected lockdowns/downturns.
"I've never been quite sure what the point of a eunuch is, if truth be told. It seems to me they're only men with the useful bits cut off."
I drank because I wanted to drown my sorrows, but now the damned things have learned to swim.

Zanza

@Sheilbh:
On fisheries, no deal is better than a bad deal for Macron. So that will not be resolved easily. I have only read bits and pieces about it, but while I understand the British claim to sovereign use of their commercial zone, there are some aspects that make this more difficult: Fish stocks move, so without common policy, both sides might overfish. Britain apparently sold fishing quotas to private EU companies in the past and these companies see their rights infringed. And British fishers land a lot of their catch in EU harbours, which without fishing rights for the EU would likely also stop or become more expensive.

Whenever I read about details of the talks, the British seem to have outlandish ideas about many topics. E.g. diagonal cumulation for car rules of origin, still participating in the liberalized airline or road haulage market, keeping the roaming cost limitations etc. Bizarre stuff when you deliberately left the single market.

Sheilbh

Quote from: Tamas on October 13, 2020, 07:44:11 AM
We are just screwed. The whole original point of lockdown was/should had been as I understood was to save the NHS and prepare a system which could keep the outbreak under reasonable control. I am not saying most of the world have done better in this regard, but it seems to be we are just going through the motions of trying to not do a second lockdown while we know it is coming.

And we will be emerging from it next Spring to experience the practical aspects of no deal Brexit for the first time. I don't think Boris is going to serve out his 5 year term.
Incidentally on this I remember reading a thing a couple of weeks ago which included one snippet of gossip (I think from the Mail) that Johnson, Hancock and Gove (and presumably Cummings) had been pushing for a "circuit breaker" short, hard lockdown for about 4-6 weeks then.

But the cabinet weren't convinced and wanted a softer set of measures instead (this is from the list of policy option produced by SAGE). Which I thought was interesting at the time because I think it showed that I think the Treasury has increasing sway and I imagine they are very lockdown-sceptical. But also that it was an indication of the difficulty within the party Johnson has - voters (including Tory voters) want more lockdown not less, Tory members and activists are broadly anti-lockdown, which is in the recent polling that only 15% of people thought the new measures go too far.

Given the mess they've made of things (and maybe they'd have made a similar mess with a circuit breaker lockdown) I feel like the cabinet got this wrong and we may be in a really bad position when students return from university, people are in the shops for Christmas and everyone has cold/flu going on. I feel maybe a circuit breaker through October/November would have been a better option and allowed a reasonably normal Christmas. Now I think we'll probably get all of the worst things.

QuoteDon't think any of that will keep us from being wet. ;)
:console: No. Nothing will. It'll be fine come November/December when we tend to have more dry winter days but for autumn, we're just fucked I'm afraid :(

QuoteAlso, that all sounds suspiciously like Winter Wonderland. :x
Asbolutely not. I love Christmas far more than is acceptable for a single 30-something man, but I hate Winter Wonderland <_<
Let's bomb Russia!

garbon

Quote from: Sheilbh on October 13, 2020, 11:39:02 AM
:console: No. Nothing will. It'll be fine come November/December when we tend to have more dry winter days but for autumn, we're just fucked I'm afraid :(

Yeah, so much hermit styling. -_-

Quote from: Sheilbh on October 13, 2020, 11:39:02 AM
Asbolutely not. I love Christmas far more than is acceptable for a single 30-something man, but I hate Winter Wonderland <_<

:cheers:

I'd been seeing someone and I stopped seeing him after he took me on a date there.
"I've never been quite sure what the point of a eunuch is, if truth be told. It seems to me they're only men with the useful bits cut off."
I drank because I wanted to drown my sorrows, but now the damned things have learned to swim.