Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Maladict]

Britain since WW1 has been byzanium in miniature. Its now the 15th century.

We should be expecting another renaissance on the continent any minute now, spurred on by the knowledge of the ancients transmitted from the dying empire ... oh, never mind.

[Legbiter]

Labour race is falling into place. Corbyn ticket is Rebecca Long-Bailey as leader (who I find rather robotic in media appearances and speeches) and Angela Rayner as deputy leader who I quite like ().

Yeah, uninspiring middle manager is the first impression. We'll see.

[Agelastus]

It is supposed to be a "sketch" I think. Except it is not at all amusing, unlike John Crace's pieces which I rather enjoy.

You're right, I've just been reading a couple of his most recent pieces and he is quite amusing.

[Zoupa]

Can Spain really hold out if 26 nations want to let Scotland in? I highly doubt it.

Auld Alliance coming through

What's next ? La France des 130 départements ?  Meaning Catalonia...   

La France est une et indivisible. These territories are still France, just under foreign occupation.  For now.

[The Minsky Moment]

I guess we have taken a big step toward figuring out whether Johnson is a true no-dealer: yes, he is.

Today he plans to have a bill voted on that would forbid extension of the transitional period contained in the as-of-yet-unsigned Withdrawal Agreement, thereby guaranteeing a severance of all ties with the EU this time next year, as there's no way a comprehensive deal will be signed in such a timeframe.

Seems meaningless.  If the bill passes, surely Parliament can repeal it later and permit an extension?

[The Minsky Moment]

I can't shake the feeling that we're witnessing the final phase of Great Britain's descent from world somewhat credible regional power to minor power historical curiosity and cautionary tale.

FYP

[Sheilbh]

I guess we have taken a big step toward figuring out whether Johnson is a true no-dealer: yes, he is.

Today he plans to have a bill voted on that would forbid extension of the transitional period contained in the as-of-yet-unsigned Withdrawal Agreement, thereby guaranteeing a severance of all ties with the EU this time next year, as there's no way a comprehensive deal will be signed in such a timeframe.

Seems meaningless.  If the bill passes, surely Parliament can repeal it later and permit an extension?

It is. It's a symbolic law and part of an awful trend in British politics where laws are passed that don't do anything, but "enshrine" something in law. So the government can say they've done their job.

Disturbing.

That leaves only a bare bones deal or almost total alignment; nothing in between unless they fudge and move some aspects to other talks that can go past the deadline as being not "officially" part of the negotiation.

Which reading the BBC seems to be something Gove hinted at but I haven't seen the actual interview. And even if that's what the Tories intend there's no reason for the EU to agree to it.

Yes he has said he wants a skinny, bare-bones trade deal.

But last time he was face with no deal he betrayed the DUP. If I were the ERG I'd be very concerned that, if it comes down to it, he'll just go for full regulatory alignment. And I think the lesson Johnson can, rightly, take from the last six months is people want Brexit "done", but are broadly indifferent (headbangers aside) to what Brexit is.

[Sheilbh]

It is nice to see Generation X getting some leadership roles in somebody's country.

Anyway I see no Scots. Isn't part of the problem here is that Labour has been crushed by the SNP in Scotland and they typically relied on Scottish seats back when they used to win? Or is Labour just giving up and figuring that Scotland will either leave or vote nationalist even if they don't?

Labour have one Scottish MP. They've been really crushed. For context, before the 2015 wipeout, Scottish Labour had 40 MPs.

There are calls within Scottish Labour for a new position on independence - basically recognising that the SNP really have a mandate to call a referendum, though Labour would campaign against it.

It's also really difficult to rely on the SNP at a UK level, when they are your biggest opponent in Scotland on such a fundamentaly issue.

[Sheilbh]

I can't shake the feeling that we're witnessing the final phase of Great Britain's descent from world power to minor power.

I think this is a bit overblown. But also what a lot of Brexit voters want.

People look at Rees-Mogg and the "global Britain" rhetoric of Leave campaigners. But Leave voters are very isolationist. They don't want to be a world power or anything like that. I think Iraq is an underrated cause of all of this mess (as with Trump).

[Josquius]

Looking like Keir Starmer shall be running and is the favourite.
This pleases me.
Have to hope for... I don't know. An IRA bomb is a bit much. A wave of tory mps deciding they want to move to the Pacific Isles?
A sudden mass development of souls amongst half the party?

[Tonitrus]

I don't know enough about her politics...though from the one time I saw Emily Thornberry standing in for PMQ, I was really impressed by her ability at the podium.  She would definitely keep Boris on his toes.

[mongers]

I don't know enough about her politics...though from the one time I saw Emily Thornberry standing in for PMQ, I was really impressed by her ability at the podium.  She would definitely keep Boris on his toes.

I thinks she's too much like a member of the North London twitterate, plus she has form on looking down on the very voters Labour needs to win back, white van man and those who fly English flags outside their houses, she got caught out disparaging them on twitter a couple of years back.

[Tonitrus]

I can see that...she also strikes me as having the image of the woman who could be coming after her white van man husband with a large frying pan aimed at his head. 

[The Minsky Moment]

I think Iraq is an underrated cause of all of this mess (as with Trump).

Bizarre on both counts.
Neither France nor Germany supported the US position in Iraq nor sent troops in the Iraq war.  Blair's commitment of troops was part of a policy to have an extra-EU foreign policy with the transatlantic "special relationship" as a key pillar.  For opponents of Blair's position, it seems the obvious lesson is that Britain should have hewed closer to EU muddling/non-action position rather than the independent foreign policy option.  Trump teaches the same lesson - the UK cannot count of the US as a reliable partner.  Both episodes show up the challenge of trying to act alone as a middling at best power.  Trump in particular has attempted a divide and conquer approach to Europe which mostly has failed - intended intimidation targets like the Danes blow him off knowing the EU has their back. On trade, the existence of the EU bloc has stiffened the ability to respond to US pressure - the tariff blow ups might have played differently if e.g. France had to act alone.

[Josquius]

That's brexit though. Complaining about certain things  whilst voting for more of those things.