Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[mongers]

Vladimir Putin will be the toast of the Kremlin tonight.

[Sheilbh]

Blyth Valley (Labour majority of about 8,000) was meant to be first to declare. It might be going to recount and is apparently very close.

Might rejoin Labour to help the soft left fight for control

Edit: Oh fuck - Mark Francois

[Richard Hakluyt]

looks like the exit poll is about right if we have a recount or very careful count in Blyth Valley.

[Agelastus]

Blyth Valley (Labour majority of about 8,000) was meant to be first to declare. It might be going to recount and is apparently very close.

Yes, I was just looking at that - Labour since it formed.

However, it's very long-standing Labour MP has retired and the Tories are running the same candidate as last time. And he did very well looking at the percentage figures for increase last time. Plus the Conservatives have been increasing their vote share since the 2010 election in the seat.

It could be an outlier.

[Agelastus]

Another quote from the UK polling report thread -

For me, this is the election where the group the OPs never really found finally spoke. The group that voted Remain but lost. And accepted they lost.

I do wonder if there's some truth to this statement if the 48% figure in the exit poll is remotely correct.

[Sheilbh]

A bundled(?) recount in Blyth Valley

[Sheilbh]

Another quote from the UK polling report thread -

For me, this is the election where the group the OPs never really found finally spoke. The group that voted Remain but lost. And accepted they lost.

I do wonder if there's some truth to this statement if the 48% figure in the exit poll is remotely correct.

I think that is partly why Lib Dem support collapsed once they came out for revoke.

[Josquius]

Labour have massively failed to defend their policy on Brexit. Way too many idiots lapping up the rerun narrative on the follow up referendum thing.

Blyth was long infamous for having one of the handful of pro leave labour MPs. Shows even that doesn't help.
North West Durham is also looking iffy. Which is amazing considering what the tories brought consett to in the past. Its hard to think of a town thatcher so thoroughly crushed.

[Sheilbh]

Labour majority from 12,000 to 3,000 in Sunderland South

[Sheilbh]

Blyth Valley goes Tory

[Agelastus]

Blyth Valley falls.

The Tory candidate has less than 2000 more votes than last time though. As I said - an outlier due to the previous MP's long tenure and personal following.

The Tory candidate has probably spent the last four years working the constituency - the previous incumbent had meant to retire before the 2017 election was called (three years early) after all.


Edit - and as for Sunderland and Newcastle I didn't see the Tories picking up many votes compared to last time either.

[Josquius]

I wonder whether the tory lies over reopening the Blyth and Tyne railway was the decider there - Johnson popped up to say he would offer money for this... Despite it already being agreed.

Though overall far  that people see this as a presidential election is probably the major one
.

[Agelastus]

I wonder whether the tory lies over reopening the Blyth and Tyne railway was the decider there - Johnson popped up to say he would offer money for this... Despite it already being agreed.

Though overall far  that people see this as a presidential election is probably the major one
.

Announcing something was going to happen/be given multiple times was Gordon Brown's favourite trick as Chancellor; while there's much to criticise about the Tory campaign Labour is hardly historically innocent concerning that particular tactic.

[Sheilbh]

Sir John Curtice confirming all results so far in accordance with the exit poll

[jimmy olsen]

As an outsider, the results seem predicated on the Tory's having a consistent Brexit policy, while Labor tried to have it both ways. Given that it's the most important policy that will be affected by the election, the outcome is not that surprising, though it is disheartening.