Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Today in British politics:

Most voters think risk of violence against MPs is 'price worth paying' over Brexit
Research finds majority of both leave and remain voters feel violence acceptable to get outcome they support
Amy Walker
Thu 24 Oct 2019 18.00 BST

A majority of voters in England, Wales and Scotland believe that the possibility of some level of violence against MPs is a "price worth paying" in order to get their way on Brexit, an academic survey has found.

The poll from Cardiff University and the University of Edinburgh asked respondents what they would be prepared to see happen in order to leave or remain within the European Union.

Most leave voters who took part in the Future of England study thought violence towards MPs was a "price worth paying" for Brexit to be delivered – 71% in England, 60% in Scotland and 70% in Wales.

The majority of remain voters felt that potential violence was worth it if it meant we would stay in the EU – 58% in England, 53% in Scotland and 56% in Wales.

The survey did not imply that the responder would conduct the violence themselves or specify that the violence would be severe.

Richard Wyn Jones, a professor of Welsh politics at Cardiff University who co-directed the research, said he had been "flabbergasted" by the results, given the murder of the Labour MP Jo Cox before the referendum in 2016 and recent threats made towards other MPs.

"If we're going into a general election in which polarisation is the name of the game, it's very, very hard to see how you can bind these wounds," said Wyn Jones.

Most people who responded to the survey also thought that violence towards MPs and violent protests in which people are "badly injured" were likely to occur if and when Brexit happens.

"I think this division is now existential," Wyn Jones said. "It's about who we think we are and who we think we're not. It's very hard to see how the state of the union in it's current form survives Brexit."

He added: "If we're going into a general election in which further polarisation is a deliberate aim of the campaigning of at least some of the political parties, you do wonder in all seriousness where all of this ends."

Of the 4,103 politically representative respondents, a significant number – 47% in Wales, 52% in England and 61% in Scotland – thought that the UK's departure from the EU would likely lead to the breakup of the UK.

Many were also willing to see the union change substantially if it meant they would get their own way on Brexit. Among leave voters, 74% in England, the same percentage in Wales and 59% in Scotland believed the breakup of the UK would be worth it to take back control through delivering Brexit.

Similar proportions of remainers believed undermining faith in the union would be a price worth paying in order to remain in the EU.

Ailsa Henderson, a professor of political science at the University of Edinburgh and fellow co-director of the research, said the findings showed that Brexit negotiations were "putting the union under considerable strain regardless of whether we stay or go".

She added: "Both sides are prepared to fundamentally rewrite the rules of politics as we know it to get what they want. Staying in the EU will likely decrease faith in the union. Brexit could well change its borders."

Despite leave voters' conviction that Brexit should be delivered at all costs, over half of people throughout all three countries thought that the nation would become substantially poorer as a result of Brexit.

However, a huge number of those who voted leave in the EU referendum believed that economic losses would be worth it – 76% in England and Scotland and 81% in Wales.

Similarly, voters overwhelmingly felt that the potential destruction of the country's farming and fishing industries would be a price worth paying for getting the result they wanted in the Brexit negotiations.

WTF

[The Brain]

Relax. The UK won't be a failed state, because per capita income bullcrap.

[Josquius]

I wonder how the questions were phrased.
I mean, if it would kill brexit then I'd happily see farage and Co swinging from lamp posts.
But it obviously wouldn't so its a clear theoretical.

[Sheilbh]

Questions are here:
https://www.cardiff.ac.uk/news/view/1709008-future-of-england-survey-reveals-public-attitudes-towards-brexit-and-the-union

Kind of fascinated by the masochists. There's a solid 5% who want the UK to get substantially poorer and themselves to get substantially poorer regardless of what happens

[Josquius]

Interesting the brexiter response was not "its worth it to leave the EU" but "it's worth it to take back control"

Looking at the way the questions are phrased... I think I get where the support for violence is coming from. The question isn't about MPs actually being killed but in violence directed towards them, and the reply isn't "good" but "worth the risk"..
We have definitely seen the brexit side threatening terror quite often as a reason we should not hinder brexit.

[The Larch]

Questions are here:
https://www.cardiff.ac.uk/news/view/1709008-future-of-england-survey-reveals-public-attitudes-towards-brexit-and-the-union

Kind of fascinated by the masochists. There's a solid 5% who want the UK to get substantially poorer and themselves to get substantially poorer regardless of what happens

Certainly troll voting.

[Valmy]

It is nice that only a smaller majority of Scots want to physically assault MPs

"I tell you there is not a man here who wouldn't gladly kill a MP to save this country from the EU"

"Well there's one"

"Oh right...MacDougal back there"

[Sheilbh]

It goes both way! Leavers and Remainers have both lost their fucking minds

Some examples of that in the emails female MPs keep getting in both sides.

[mongers]

Latest 'governent' tactic, if the commons refuses a GE in Monday's vote, then the Johnson administration will go on 'strike', bringing forward no significant legislation certainly not the WAB and then continue to stoke the fires of 'people vs parliament' 

[Zoupa]

These numbers are incredible. Very, very worrisome...

[Richard Hakluyt]

The questions asked in the detailed data appear to be different in tone to the questions as posed in the articles. So, for the detailed data on England :

https://www.cardiff.ac.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/1708631/Copy-of-England-16-Oct-AH.pdf

"Violence directed towards Members of
Parliament
I want this to happen regardless of Brexit 2
I see it as a risk but it's worth it to remain in the EU 58
Staying in the EU is not worth the risk of this happening 40"

So 2% of remainers are either lunatics or being facetious. The 58% who see it as a risk are not proposing to take action themselves but perceive it as a risk if we are succesful in remaining in the EU. Any political action involves risks; I will be very happy if we emerge from this process without any violence against MPs, but I would be one of the 58% who are being mis-characterised in the headline articles..........otherwise we would have to cave in every time Tommy Robinson and his crew make a demand  ?

Edited because I read the results from the wrong column initially 

[Richard Hakluyt]

I would like to see the actual survey form that respondents filled out; but can't locate it.

[Oexmelin]

I would like to see the actual survey form that respondents filled out; but can't locate it.

The spreadsheet you posted gives us a good sense of what it looked like. And I agree with you that it may not be quite people wishing ill on MPs, but rather, recognizing / fearing that some people may take it to violent extremes, and not wishing to be deterred by the threat.

[garbon]

It goes both way! Leavers and Remainers have both lost their fucking minds

Some examples of that in the emails female MPs keep getting in both sides.

Well some of it is certainly vile and has no place being said. However, I see Lisa Nandy tweeting out every person who dens her messages calling her names (and I'm talking ones where they have made no threats).

If Nandy is going to support legislation that is going to ruin people's lives, there are people who will feel powerless to do anything but send rude messages.

[Syt]

I'm somewhat curious how Lily sorts Brexit. I hope it has to do with boobs.