Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Supreme Court hearing on, for the very bored/curious.

[Josquius]

Lots of that and this tone: "This presser thing, facisinating to watch the binary in reactions. All the Remain brits giving it the 'yes foreign leader, stick it to our PM' stuff. Extraordinary stuff. I'm on the other side of that binary btw."

The average punter will probably look at that and see it as a deliberate attempt to humiliate the UK's Prime Minister and not be amazingly overjoyed at it.

For what it's worth I think there's some truth to this. Between this sort of thing and the Lib Dem Party conference I am still very much not convinced Remain would win a second referendum.

Ah, so its the arrogant remainer story they like to throw around.

For what it's worth I think there's some truth to this. Between this sort of thing and the Lib Dem Party conference I am still very much not convinced Remain would win a second referendum.

I mean the British politicians went down there to the EU parliament and basically told the EU they were shit by turning around and facing away during the EU Anthem. It is kind of weird to be super sensitive if that is how the British are conducting themselves.

Yeah, the brexiters think they're running rings around Europe as they're the only ones playing by arse hole rules.
Weird for them to be such snowflakes when somebody does it a little bit back to them.

[Tamas]

Yes, the contempt, cynicism, and outright hostility (surrender bill, demanding the EU comes up with solution after solution as they are continuously rejected by the UK, etc), the Leave side in general, and members of this cabinet in particular, have been treating the EU, they only got a taste of their own medicine.

Plus, I think it is a mistake to think the EU would actively want to work on retaining the EU and thus this exposing of Johnson to be the spineless coward he is was counter-productive. Sure, they probably want to keep the UK market in a sort of Norway setup ideally, but why on Earth would they want to keep the UK as a voting member after all this crap? They will never openly say it, obviously (well, apart from Macron perhaps) but I am pretty sure they will be disappointed if the LibDems win a majority and cancel Brexit.

[Josquius]

To an extent yeah.
Though the main priorities for Europe remain not letting the Brits start a war in Ireland and the rights of European citizens in the UK.

[Sheilbh]

Supreme Court hearing on, for the very bored/curious.

So according to the Guardian the Supreme Court's livestream is normally accessed 20,000 times a month. It was accessed 4.4 million times today

[Barrister]

Supreme Court hearing on, for the very bored/curious.

So according to the Guardian the Supreme Court's livestream is normally accessed 20,000 times a month. It was accessed 4.4 million times today

It still makes me sad that the House of Lords is not the supreme appellate court of the UK any longer.

[Sheilbh]

Supreme Court hearing on, for the very bored/curious.

So according to the Guardian the Supreme Court's livestream is normally accessed 20,000 times a month. It was accessed 4.4 million times today

It still makes me sad that the House of Lords is not the supreme appellate court of the UK any longer.

There is an argument that change did actually change their behaviour despite their jurisdiction staying exactly the same. Which is interesting for legal nerds

Also for the nerds: would the House of Lords (the judges) sit when prorogued?

[Maladict]

Boris Johnson's Brexit negotiators have so far only presented the EU with a draft of the withdrawal agreement with the backstop scrubbed out, UK government sources have confirmed.

In a move that has caused tensions with EU leaders, Johnson's team are refusing to put forward a written proposal to Brussels at this stage for fear it will be rejected out of hand or publicly rubbished.

Instead, they want to wait until almost the last minute before the October summit before presenting a plan to the EU, with just two weeks before the UK is due to leave the bloc.

Led by donkeys, indeed.

[Sheilbh]

Plus, I think it is a mistake to think the EU would actively want to work on retaining the EU and thus this exposing of Johnson to be the spineless coward he is was counter-productive. Sure, they probably want to keep the UK market in a sort of Norway setup ideally, but why on Earth would they want to keep the UK as a voting member after all this crap? They will never openly say it, obviously (well, apart from Macron perhaps) but I am pretty sure they will be disappointed if the LibDems win a majority and cancel Brexit.

Agreed. But it's sort of the opposite of Parliament. EU member states for various good reasons (from their point of view) don't want to make changes to the WA that would get it through the current Parliament and don't want to push the UK into a no deal/revoke binary.

Similarly in Parliament for various good reasons (from their point of view) MPs don't want to accept May's deal, don't want no deal and don't want to revoke.

So here we are with rolling extensions, probably.

Edit: Although honestly I thought appointing a Commission would be a crunch point. Maybe the budget negotiations will be?

[Tamas]

Plus, I think it is a mistake to think the EU would actively want to work on retaining the EU and thus this exposing of Johnson to be the spineless coward he is was counter-productive. Sure, they probably want to keep the UK market in a sort of Norway setup ideally, but why on Earth would they want to keep the UK as a voting member after all this crap? They will never openly say it, obviously (well, apart from Macron perhaps) but I am pretty sure they will be disappointed if the LibDems win a majority and cancel Brexit.

Agreed. But it's sort of the opposite of Parliament. EU member states for various good reasons (from their point of view) don't want to make changes to the WA that would get it through the current Parliament and don't want to push the UK into a no deal/revoke binary.

Similarly in Parliament for various good reasons (from their point of view) MPs don't want to accept May's deal, don't want no deal and don't want to revoke.

So here we are with rolling extensions, probably.

Edit: Although honestly I thought appointing a Commission would be a crunch point. Maybe the budget negotiations will be?

I don't think it has been explained properly in the  UK, what an existential threat it would be for the EU to grant the UK what it wants, which is a free opt out of EU commitments while retaining all benefits.

It would create a precedent that all member states with no direct ideological investment into the long term survival of the EU would be demanding pretty much immediately, not to mention what difference it would be to the treatment Italy and Greece got.

Johnson and his ilk keep coming up with ridiculous things like German cars and Italian wine, as if a 10-15% loss due to tariffs (which the Brits would pay regardless) could measure up to the very real danger of the disintegration of the single market.

The single market not only is far bigger than the British one, but also houses these producers' supply chains and cheap Eastern factories. It's not even a contest.

[Sheilbh]

The Leavers broadly want Canada plus, or Canada minus. Loads of them obsess about that step chart Barnier presented early on and how those options aren't available.

The issue isn't that Leavers want to have their cake and eat it (they don't), it's that what they want isn't compatible with no Irish border. This is why I think it's fairly possible they might sacrifice the unionists for their dream Brexit. It's also why Johnson has stepped back from May's goal of "frictionless" trade over the Irish border.

You may think they're wrong, but I really don't think they want to keep the EU benefits if it's a choice between that and freedom to do what they want in the trade and regulatory world.

[Admiral Yi]

Explain to me how a hard Irish border is a sacrifice of the Unionists.  Are the economies that intertwined now that they would be badly hurt?

[Sheilbh]

Boris Johnson's Brexit negotiators have so far only presented the EU with a draft of the withdrawal agreement with the backstop scrubbed out, UK government sources have confirmed.

In a move that has caused tensions with EU leaders, Johnson's team are refusing to put forward a written proposal to Brussels at this stage for fear it will be rejected out of hand or publicly rubbished.

Instead, they want to wait until almost the last minute before the October summit before presenting a plan to the EU, with just two weeks before the UK is due to leave the bloc.

Led by donkeys, indeed.

Interesting thing about this is the ERG spent the first few weeks of Johnson's leadership saying the backstop isn't the issue it's the entire WA. Why move for someone who doesn't have the numbers? (Unless deal before October 19 in which case he can plausibly say: my deal or no deal - would that be enough for enough Labour MPs to move?)

[Sheilbh]

Explain to me how a hard Irish border is a sacrifice of the Unionists.  Are the economies that intertwined now that they would be badly hurt?

It's where the border is that's the issue for unionists. I think Johnson and the Brexiteers would be willing to effectively have a border in the Irish Sea if it got them Brexit for Great Britain.

I think unionist complaints about the backstop are fair - they have a point. I think May and the EU both deserve credit for the compromise changes they agreed (May decided the union mattered most and the EU conceded a UK-wide customs union). But it doesn't get around some of the unionists issues. But the Irish border was always going to be the biggest issue and, as I say, I think the EU's sequencing was a mistake on this.

Fundamentally there's no way to do Brexit that doesn't go against the wishes of and fuck one community in Northern Irleand, unless, maybe, you go for super-soft EEA option. If the Tories paid any attention to the "Unionist" bit of their party name that would matter to them 

Edit: In a general, how's British politics doing

Public favourability towards Boris Johnson:

Favourable: 38% (+2)
Unfavourable: 54% (+1)

via @YouGov
, 16 - 17 Sep
Chgs. w/ 27 Aug

Public favourability towards Jeremy Corbyn:

Favourable: 21% (+2)
Unfavourable: 70% (+2)

via @YouGov
, 16 - 17 Sep

Public favourability towards Jo Swinson:

Favourable: 26% (+9)
Unfavourable: 38% (+3)

via @YouGov
, 16 - 17 Sep
Chgs. w/ 27 Aug

[The Minsky Moment]

And there is the problem.  There is no functional opposition that is a credible electoral threat, thus permitting the Torys to go as deep into their own lunatic fringe at they wish without paying the political consequence.