Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Richard Hakluyt]

Another factor are the European parliament elections on 23rd May. A large consignment of right-wing nutters are expected to win seats. The last thing the EU wants is a fractious UK contributing a large contingent of UKIP (who are now overtly racist btw) MEPs.

[Iormlund]

As the Guardian summarises it, Tusk's ultimatium means May's deal or no deal.

This isn't true.  Or at least, it's misleading.  There are at least 2 other possibilities.

• May's deal.
• No deal Brexit.
• No deal, withdraw Article 50, UK remains in the EU.
• No deal now, withdraw Article 50, negotiate a different deal, resubmit Article 50.

The EU is only bound to negotiate a withdrawal if A50 is used in good faith. So that last one is out.

[Iormlund]

Why is the EU playing hardball like that?

Because they think if they just give a blank checque nothing will change and they are right.

Doesn't an extension just extend the status quo, which would then allow political events in Britain to finally reject any version of Brexit?  The May deal seems like a less attractive result.

Nothing we have seen so far seems to indicate that another three months would change anything. May would just run down the clock again looking for meaningful votes #4, 5, 6 ...

The UK doesn't need time. It needs to make a decision. Now works better than in three months.

[Valmy]

As the Guardian summarises it, Tusk's ultimatium means May's deal or no deal.

Which has been the reality since November, so it is good an adult finally has said it.

EDIT: but it also makes Saturday's massive pro-2nd referendum March in London utterly useless.

Well wait isn't there a third option here? May's deal, no deal, or remain?

[Valmy]

Not that I'm a real Brussels expert, but I didn't expect them to play hardball like that.

I am not surprised at all. Once the banner of nationalism gets waved in Europe everything gets a little more vicious. Is it any surprise the rest of the Europeans would start to resent the contempt the UK clearly feels for them? I know you talk about rational interests but the UK opened up the Pandora's Box of centuries past.

[Josquius]

Awful offer from Europe. We are  basically fucked it seems. We accept May's deal then its either hard brexit or hard brexit.
Better than no deal, but still, a disaster.

[ulmont]

The EU is only bound to negotiate a withdrawal if A50 is used in good faith. So that last one is out.

A longer delay would not necessarily show bad faith, just that the UK doesn't know what the hell it's doing.

[celedhring]

It would be amusing if the EU made it clear to the scots that they are welcome after an eventual hard brexit. And any other splinter countries.

Would spain let that become a policy?

IIRC some woman/youth football tourney just got moved from Spain to Switzerland because they wouldn't allow Kosovo to play their anthem. I highly doubt they would let an independent Scotland save itself from ruin by (re-)joining the EU.

Spain's official position is to not veto Scotland into the EU, as long as the independence was legal within the UK's constitutional framework. Kosovo gets given the cold shoulder because it was an UDI - Spain's position there is to recognize them once Serbia does.

Mainly Spain is against unilateral independences, not independences per se.

[Tamas]

Corbyn has walked out of the all-party meeting called by May at No.10 because Chuka Umunna from the Independent Group was there as well and he was "not a proper party leader".

There's another great leader. Prioritising his own bruised ego over a national crisis.

[mongers]

Corbyn has walked out of the all-party meeting called by May at No.10 because Chuka Umunna from the Independent Group was there as well and he was "not a proper party leader".

There's another great leader. Prioritising his own bruised ego over a national crisis.

If true, what a colossal wanker.

[Tamas]

Corbyn has walked out of the all-party meeting called by May at No.10 because Chuka Umunna from the Independent Group was there as well and he was "not a proper party leader".

There's another great leader. Prioritising his own bruised ego over a national crisis.

If true, what a colossal wanker.

It is, other party leaders, Vince Cable in particular, have confirmed.

[Josquius]

There might be hope. Apparently there'll be an amendment to the deal that it is contingent on a referendum. Finally pulling the trigger.

[Tamas]

There might be hope. Apparently there'll be an amendment to the deal that it is contingent on a referendum. Finally pulling the trigger.

Is the EU game with that?

[Tamas]

So maybe I've missed something but the big May speech was just a justification of why she insist on a delay only to 30th of June (it's because pesky MPs playing politics BTW).

No mention of the fact that June 30th is now conditional on the Withdrawal Agreement accepted by Parliament before the 29th.

This bloody speech was decided on and written before Tusk's reply and she didn't bother to update it.

[garbon]

She also basically said nothing that she hasn't said before.