Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[HVC]

An institution discrediting itself through decisive and effective action 

Carney seems like a pretty solid guy.

[Tamas]

Jacob Rees-Mogg's emotional balance > Britain's future.

[Zanza]

I didn't understand why May set herself up for the next humiliation when she demanded that freedom of movement would not apply during the transition period. There is no way that the EU, especially its parliament, will ever agree to that. So unless she somehow doesn't want a transition, she can only lose on this. Why not use her typical ambiguity on that one as well?

[ulmont]

At least it becomes clearer now what Britain wants. They have clearly stated now that they want out of the customs union so we should start building custom posts in Calais, Rotterdam and across Ireland I guess.

Ahh, but they also first committed to no physical border in Ireland, cleverly!

[Josquius]

From what I hear they will take free movement but registering every new entrant.
...
I. E. What they could legally do already if they cared

[The Larch]

At least it becomes clearer now what Britain wants. They have clearly stated now that they want out of the customs union so we should start building custom posts in Calais, Rotterdam and across Ireland I guess.

Ahh, but they also first committed to no physical border in Ireland, cleverly!

Committing is easy until you have to deliver.

[Zanza]

https://www.ft.com/content/ade8e020-0b50-11e8-8eb7-42f857ea9f09

EU plans to cut UK's market access if Brexit transition terms broken
Brussels draft says bloc could retaliate without recourse to court if deal breached

The EU wants powers to punish UK non-compliance during the Brexit transition by summarily cutting off the country's access to parts of the single market, according to a treaty draft.

The five-page text, circulated to EU member states by the European Commission and seen by the Financial Times, sets out how the EU plans to make Britain abide by union law until December 2020 while excluding it from decision-making.

Highlighting fears in Brussels over Britain wilfully breaking rules during the transition period or refusing to implement new laws, the draft treaty text calls for additional enforcement powers so that the EU can respond promptly to infringements.

It says the final withdrawal agreement "should provide for a mechanism allowing the union to suspend certain benefits deriving for the UK from participation in the internal market where it considers that referring the matter to [court] would not bring in appropriate time the necessary remedies".

The text, drafted by the commission, is a first glimpse at sections of the withdrawal agreement that will outline Britain's EU exit terms and the conditions for a transition lasting about two years after the UK leaves the bloc in March 2019.

Brexiters have warned that the arrangements would turn Britain into a vassal state, unable to influence laws that it is obliged to implement. British negotiators are seeking safeguards allowing the UK to vet and potentially reject new laws agreed during the transition — a demand the EU side has dismissed as unrealistic.

Peter Ptassek, Germany's Brexit co-ordinator, tweeted on Tuesday: "Now we are talking #transition! Straight forward draft by [the commission] provides the clarity the economy facing Brexit needs. Not so much time left to get a deal on this in March."

Theresa May's government is seeking to reach a transition deal by an EU summit on March 22-23, to increase business certainty about the terms of Brexit 12 months before the UK leaves. But the recent controversy about transition within her own Conservative party's ranks have increased the challenges facing Michel Barnier and David Davis, the chief EU and UK negotiators.

While allowing for the UK to be consulted in certain areas — including over sanctions and fisheries policy — the draft treaty text gives the UK only a limited role in watching the development of law, strictly at the EU's invitation.

In a sign of how closely such access will be policed, the document says that the presence of UK observers should be limited to "specific agenda points" identified in advance.

Noting the UK will remain bound by "sincere co-operation" with the EU, the document emphasises that London must refrain from any "action or initiative which is likely to be prejudicial to the Union's interests".

The text ranges from high-level principles, such as the UK remaining subject to decisions of EU courts, to arcane detail, including Britain's remaining obligations to pay for the teaching of English at European schools.

One area where Brussels plans to give the UK a slightly greater say is fisheries. EU ministers agree each year on the quotas for different stocks that will be handed to each country's fishing industries. While Britain will now be shut out of those talks, it will be consulted by Brussels on any decision affecting its fishing opportunities.

The draft transition text stresses that the UK will be subject to the powers of all EU "institutions, bodies, offices and agencies," in particular the European Court of Justice.

At the same time, Britain's own national institutions will be stripped of EU rights. One consequence would be that the UK parliament would lose its ability to take part in initiatives, known as yellow card procedures, aimed at blocking draft EU laws.

"For the purposes of the Treaties, during the transition period, the parliament of the United Kingdom shall not be considered to be a national parliament," the document says.

Who would have thought that Brexit would mean more not less EU power over Britain - at least during the transition period. The current draft beautifully shows how little trust between the EU and the UK is left and sets the scene for the "easiest trade deal in human history" (Liam Fox). If you cannot trust the other side to uphold a deal, it will be incredibly hard to find any common ground for a trade deal.

[Tamas]

EU getting a bit impatient: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/09/brexit-uk-demands-putting-transition-deal-in-doubt-says-barnier

Basically they are planning to declare that Northern Ireland will stay in the single market, end of story, up to the UK to figure out exactly how, during the transition period.

Also, I am looking forward to laugh on all the xenophobes when farmers will be forced to ship in people from India and Pakistan by the boatload to keep the country fed:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/feb/09/lack-of-migrant-workers-left-food-rotting-in-uk-fields-last-year-data-reveals

[The Minsky Moment]

Jacob Rees-Mogg's emotional balance > Britain's future.

Met that guy once many years ago.

[Maladict]

Met that guy once many years ago.

Many years ago is where he lives, so that sounds plausible.

[Tamas]

Met that guy once many years ago.

Many years ago is where he lives, so that sounds plausible.

[Josquius]

EU getting a bit impatient: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/09/brexit-uk-demands-putting-transition-deal-in-doubt-says-barnier

Basically they are planning to declare that Northern Ireland will stay in the single market, end of story, up to the UK to figure out exactly how, during the transition period.

Also, I am looking forward to laugh on all the xenophobes when farmers will be forced to ship in people from India and Pakistan by the boatload to keep the country fed:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/feb/09/lack-of-migrant-workers-left-food-rotting-in-uk-fields-last-year-data-reveals

It's quite hilarious to see Ireland's objections dictating the EU's course on Northern Ireland. Wonderful contrast to all those fools who seem to think the EU was a dictatorship which could/would force the UK to do things.


Apparently the US has risen in esteem amongst would be migrants whilst the UK has plumetted
http://www.bbc.com/capital/story/20180209-do-european-expats-prefer-the-us-over-the-uk

[Zanza]

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/britain-to-world-please-pretend-we-are-not-leaving-eu-1.3386401?mode=amp

Britain to world: please pretend we are not leaving EU
Government note calls on non-EU nations to treat UK like a bloc member post-Brexit

Britain has a message for the rest of the world after Brexit next year: please pretend we are still in the EU.

A "technical note" prepared by the British government calls on non-EU nations to treat the UK during its post-Brexit transition period after March 2019 as if it was still covered by more than 700 treaties Brussels has struck with third countries on everything from fishing rights to data sharing.

"To coin a phrase, they are going to tell the world that Brexit does not mean Brexit," said one EU official.

Unless a deal is reached to keep the UK fully covered by such international agreements, Britain risks being bound by the obligations of the treaties during its post-Brexit transition period, without enjoying any of the benefits. The prospect is leading to a scramble in Whitehall to try to find a solution.

The paper published on Thursday represents an about-turn in the UK's approach to the agreements, which it initially attempted to replicate with UK-only bilateral deals with the relevant countries.

Under the revised British plan, third countries would agree to "interpret relevant terms in the international agreements, such as 'European Union' or 'EU member state' to include the UK".

"This approach is underpinned by international law and practice," the document said, adding that it "represents the simplest way of ensuring the continued application of these agreements" during the post-Brexit transition period, which is set to run until the end of 2020.

Sam Lowe, a research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, said the move marked a U-turn from previous British policy to renegotiate UK-only versions of the deals.

"It is not great for our credibility as a reliable negotiation partner," he tweeted.

Michel Barnier, the EU's chief Brexit negotiator, warned last month that there was no guarantee that the UK would be able to continue benefiting from the agreements once it left the EU. He said that was something in the gift of the 100-plus countries with whom Brussels had negotiated the agreements. [...]

  BINO.

[celedhring]

Schrödinger's Brexit.

[mongers]

Met that guy once many years ago.

Many years ago is where he lives, so that sounds plausible.

Good one.

Though the irony is there's very little traditional conservative about him, he's an out and out Thatcherite and more right wing still; the old foggy thing is just a distraction like HR's pipe, Boris J's posh twit act, etc.

Besides I don't think he's old money, his father was a newspaper journalist; the likes of Harold MacMillan would see him as a newcomer to the country set.

And yet he's likely to be our next Prime Minister.