Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Zanza]

Why would the EU side need to make any compromises? The UK has no position of strength.

Because the EU cares about Ireland, since it's a member state, and Ireland would prefer not to see the Troubles restarting if and when Brexit tears up one of the cornerstones of the Good Friday Accords.

I am not sure what the EU can really compromise over though. The integrity of the single market is paramount as that is the core institution of the EU. So a hard border for goods is inevitable in case the UK leaves the customs union as per stated position of its government. No border checks for persons would be possible as neither Ireland nor Britain is in Schengen. I also don't see any possibility that Britain could compromise on either goods or persons as that is not feasible in a democratic country.

[Gups]

Trade with the rest of Ireland has only had 20 years to develop though to be fair.

We've had more or less free trade with Ireland since the 1930s and very high levels of experts and imports all the way through the period.

[Josquius]

Trade with the rest of Ireland has only had 20 years to develop though to be fair.

We've had more or less free trade with Ireland since the 1930s and very high levels of experts and imports all the way through the period.

The UK as a whole has.
For Northern Ireland there were severe barriers due to the troubles. Tight border controls and lots of distrust.

[Zanza]

One thing to remember about the Brexit bill: From the perspective of the EU, this is all about prior existing liabilities, not the future. If the UK wants to participate in any EU programs in the future (e.g. Europol), it will have to pay for its participation in these - probably without the rebate it enjoyed before.

[Josquius]

One thing to remember about the Brexit bill: From the perspective of the EU, this is all about prior existing liabilities, not the future. If the UK wants to participate in any EU programs in the future (e.g. Europol), it will have to pay for its participation in these - probably without the rebate it enjoyed before.

Yep.
Norway pays about 2/3 what the UK does iirc.

[Richard Hakluyt]

One thing to remember about the Brexit bill: From the perspective of the EU, this is all about prior existing liabilities, not the future. If the UK wants to participate in any EU programs in the future (e.g. Europol), it will have to pay for its participation in these - probably without the rebate it enjoyed before.

Yep.
Norway pays about 2/3 what the UK does iirc.

About 2/3 per capita. The actual payment is about 1/20 of the British payment.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Going back to Ireland and NI per capita trade between the two is far higher than trade with Britain. It is just that Britain has about 63m people compared to about 6.5m for the republic and NI combined.

Similarly, of course, the UK has vast amounts of trade with the EU because they are on our doorstep and have hundreds of millions of reasonably well-off consumers. Which brings us back to square one.

[The Minsky Moment]

Similarly, of course, the UK has vast amounts of trade with the EU because they are on our doorstep and have hundreds of millions of reasonably well-off consumers. Which brings us back to square one.

But there's the Commonwealth.  Surely the UK can make up for lost European business by expanding trade with Malawi, New Zealand, and Belize.

[Gups]

The Times is reporting that the negotiators on both sides are saying they are close to a breakthrough on the border issue. It would involve devolution of powers to the NI assembly to enable customs convergence with ROI. OTOH, ROI and EU accept that can't put these in place until there is a functioning NI executive and more detail on the overall trade deal

[Zanza]

So the UK would have a two customs zones - one in Northern Ireland and one for Great Britain?

[Zanza]

At least Brexit has the desired effect on immigration:

Net migration to the UK has plummeted by more than 100,000 in the year since the vote for Brexit as EU citizens leave, new statistics show.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the number of people moving to live in Britain long-term had fallen to 230,000 in the year to June, with three quarters of the drop
accounted for by EU citizens.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-immigration-latest-brexit-eu-citizens-leave-vote-right-stay-talks-brussels-home-office-a8084086.html

[CountDeMoney]

At least Brexit has the desired effect on immigration:

That'll teach...whoever it's supposed to teach, I guess.

[The Minsky Moment]

At least Brexit has the desired effect on immigration:

That'll teach...whoever it's supposed to teach, I guess.

It'll keep the Polish plumbers away like intended.  The Poles can keep their squeaky clean toilets and well functioning sinks in Poland where they belong.  Nothing says home sweet Johnny Bull home like a good old fashioned British leaky faucet.

[Gups]

At least Brexit has the desired effect on immigration:

That'll teach...whoever it's supposed to teach, I guess.

It'll keep the Polish plumbers away like intended.  The Poles can keep their squeaky clean toilets and well functioning sinks in Poland where they belong.  Nothing says home sweet Johnny Bull home like a good old fashioned British leaky faucet.

Polish plumbers and builders really aren't that good (from personal experience and anecdotes). They are cheap though.

[Tamas]

I am not really impressed with decades-old British plumbing and carpentry either, to be fair.