Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Tamas]

Tusk says no acceptance of current deal, no extension

[crazy canuck]

Why is the EU playing hardball like that?

[crazy canuck]

Can this thread be subtitled "Watching your country go down the pan" ?

I thought that is was what Brexit meant

[Tamas]

Why is the EU playing hardball like that?

Because they think if they just give a blank checque nothing will change and they are right.

[Tamas]

As the Guardian summarises it, Tusk's ultimatium means May's deal or no deal.

Which has been the reality since November, so it is good an adult finally has said it.

EDIT: but it also makes Saturday's massive pro-2nd referendum March in London utterly useless.

[Barrister]

Not that I'm a real Brussels expert, but I didn't expect them to play hardball like that.

[crazy canuck]

Why is the EU playing hardball like that?

Because they think if they just give a blank checque nothing will change and they are right.

Doesn't an extension just extend the status quo, which would then allow political events in Britain to finally reject any version of Brexit?  The May deal seems like a less attractive result.

[Tamas]

Not that I'm a real Brussels expert, but I didn't expect them to play hardball like that.

Well they certainly has the power advantage for it, and for them I think this is becoming a horrible nuisance. There's imminent elections where a profound negative shift for Europe can happen if the populists gain too many seats. The structural problems that led to the financial as well as the brief migrant crisis are all still there and need to be resolved. Dragging this bagagge with them which is ultimately a bad but not a decisive thing just can't make much sense. Severing the cord now would mean they have a hit and then can forget about it for good.

[Tamas]

Why is the EU playing hardball like that?

Because they think if they just give a blank checque nothing will change and they are right.

Doesn't an extension just extend the status quo, which would then allow political events in Britain to finally reject any version of Brexit?  The May deal seems like a less attractive result.

IMHO the ONLY problem with the May deal is that it could allow the EU to be malicious and lock the UK in a Soft Brexit situation ad infinitum. Other than that, its a good interim deal for everyone. Pushing it through make sense at this stage.

[Richard Hakluyt]

The May "deal" is simply the withdrawal agreement of course. There will be many years of negotiations to work out the future relationship; in fact I doubt they will ever end.

[crazy canuck]

The May "deal" is simply the withdrawal agreement of course. There will be many years of negotiations to work out the future relationship; in fact I doubt they will ever end.

Yeah, that is why I am surprised the EU would play hardball to get that deal when Brexit could be killed entirely.

[ulmont]

As the Guardian summarises it, Tusk's ultimatium means May's deal or no deal.

This isn't true.  Or at least, it's misleading.  There are at least 2 other possibilities.

• May's deal.
• No deal Brexit.
• No deal, withdraw Article 50, UK remains in the EU.
• No deal now, withdraw Article 50, negotiate a different deal, resubmit Article 50.

[Duque de Bragança]

Amazing really that Macron is seen as some great European leader and at the same time he seems to be losing popularity very fast at home. Whats his ratings nowadays?

Pretty low, they have been lower so half-empty, half-full glass situation.

[Richard Hakluyt]

The May "deal" is simply the withdrawal agreement of course. There will be many years of negotiations to work out the future relationship; in fact I doubt they will ever end.

Yeah, that is why I am surprised the EU would play hardball to get that deal when Brexit could be killed entirely.

I think that May may have asked them for this; she appears to be completely determined to deliver brexit but is aware that no-deal is insane; this may force the Commons to pass the deal on the 3rd attempt.

[Tamas]

As the Guardian summarises it, Tusk's ultimatium means May's deal or no deal.

This isn't true.  Or at least, it's misleading.  There are at least 2 other possibilities.

• May's deal.
• No deal Brexit.
• No deal, withdraw Article 50, UK remains in the EU.
• No deal now, withdraw Article 50, negotiate a different deal, resubmit Article 50.

Sure but here's the thing:

May's deal: ERG and Farage's 70 protesters throw a hissy fit then there'll be some grumbling and they remain forever on the fringes

No deal Brexit: Massive short term chaos politically and economically, fresh elections, who knows what else

Withdraw Article 50, remain in the EU: massive political chaos, Tory party implodes, democracy in the UK might receive a fatal wound if not managed well

Resubmit A50: that would have the effects as above, plus the EU would never let anyone make that big a fool of them. It will simply not happen.

So, realistically, the only alternative is May's deal.