Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Jacob]

No need for apologies, I just don't get how generalising to make a valid point about views I disagree with disqualify me as a liberal.

On a second reading the point you made was not unreasonable so I'll still apologize.

Also, for the record when I said liberal in that post I meant it in the way OvB was intending - the caricatured left - not the way you yourself identify politically. Obviously you can speak for the positions you hold.

[The Minsky Moment]

Most of Israels critics would be happy if Israel pulled back into its borders, reversed those laws that stripped minorities of rights and generally stopped sitting on the Palestinians.

Many Israelis - including many staunch Zionists - would be happy if the same thing happens. 

So how does it make sense to refer to that position as anti-Zionist? 

[Syt]

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-politics-bannon/ex-trump-strategist-bannon-targets-britain-in-anti-eu-campaign-idUSKBN1KH260

Ex-Trump strategist Bannon targets Britain in anti-EU campaign

LONDON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump's former political strategist Steve Bannon has been in contact with three potential rivals to British Prime Minister Theresa May and will make another trip to Europe in August, he told Reuters in an interview.

Bannon, a former chairman of the right-wing Breitbart.com website and an architect of Trump's 2016 election win, has launched a project to coordinate and bolster the anti-EU vote across the European Union.

He held a series of meetings in London this month after launching a Brussels-based political organization he says is intended to undermine, and ultimately paralyse, the EU.

In an interview on Thursday, Bannon said he would travel to Europe again soon and would use his organization to campaign aggressively to install a large, anti-European Union faction in the European Parliament in elections next May.

He said he was already raising funds from unspecified European sources and that his foundation would help nationalist movements around Europe to build up their polling, messaging and political "analytics" capabilities.

Bannon said Britain's departure from the European Union was "fundamentally going to change" European politics and forecast it would fuel a substantial anti-EU result in the European Parliament elections.

Prime Minister May's plans to leave the EU, which include Britain keeping a close trading relationship with the bloc on goods, have left her politically vulnerable.

A poll this week showed the plans are overwhelmingly opposed by the British public and more than a third of voters would support a new right-wing party committed to quitting the bloc. The survey also found voters would prefer Boris Johnson, who quit as foreign minister this month, to negotiate with the EU and lead the Conservative Party into the next election.

Bannon said he had been in direct contact with Johnson and two other potential challengers to May: Michael Gove, who is still a member of May's cabinet, and Jacob Rees-Mogg, a leader of an anti-EU Conservative Party faction.

The three are among the most prominent members of a section of the party which campaigned forcefully to leave the EU.

"Boris Johnson is one of the most important persons on the world stage today," Bannon said. He described Johnson as "his own guy" and said he had "texted a lot" with him and spoken by phone with him during this month's London trip.

Bannon said he had been in contact some time ago with Gove and had also been in touch with Rees-Mogg. The three represented a "deep talent bench" of potential anti-EU leaders for the Conservative Party, Bannon said.

Johnson and Rees-Mogg did not immediately respond to emails requesting comment on their contacts with Bannon. A spokesman for Gove said the British politician had once briefly encountered Bannon and that two meetings to discuss U.S. politics had been explored but never took place.

"Michael has never had a meeting with Mr Bannon or discussed these issues with him," Gove's spokesman said in an emailed response to a Reuters question on whether the two men had discussed anti-EU politics.

Bannon said he was already engaging pollsters and "working on messaging" for next May's European Parliament campaign.

Eurosceptic parties could expand their strength by over 60 percent at the elections next May, according to a survey by Reuters this week of national opinion polls.

[Josquius]

Most of Israels critics would be happy if Israel pulled back into its borders, reversed those laws that stripped minorities of rights and generally stopped sitting on the Palestinians.

Many Israelis - including many staunch Zionists - would be happy if the same thing happens. 

So how does it make sense to refer to that position as anti-Zionist? 

What zionist means in one context is not the same as what zionist means in another.

Though I thought in Israel the term was today pretty solidly linked with the expansionist right?

[Duque de Bragança]

What zionist means in one context is not the same as what zionist means in another.


Though I thought in Israel the term was today pretty solidly linked with the expansionist right?

Not really. The last centre-left anti-Bibi alliance was called Zionist Union. So yes, context is important.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zionist_Union

[Josquius]

Back on topic.
Actual conversation with a brexiter:
"Food shortage is a good thing. Diabetes is a big problem. We should be cutting back"

[Tamas]

Back on topic.
Actual conversation with a brexiter:
"Food shortage is a good thing. Diabetes is a big problem. We should be cutting back"

The bar for what constitutes success for them keeps getting lower 

[mongers]

Back on topic.
Actual conversation with a brexiter:
"Food shortage is a good thing. Diabetes is a big problem. We should be cutting back"

The bar for what constitutes success for them keeps getting lower 

Survival of the thickest?

[Zanza]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/31/eus-brexit-declaration-could-be-just-four-or-five-pages-long

The EU's declaration on the trade and security relationship with the UK after Brexit will be just five to 30 pages long, reflecting a lack of time to have an internal debate and scepticism that Theresa May will remain in Downing Street to deliver it, officials in Brussels have disclosed.

While the UK is seeking a "precise and substantive" document, to match the recently published 100-page white paper, officials in Brussels say the EU's political declaration on the "future framework" has diminishing importance for them.

Brussels is aware that the prime minister needs the document, due in the autumn, to be a "sweetener" to the main withdrawal agreement, which will commit the UK to pay a £39bn divorce bill and spell out whatever difficult deal is sealed on the issue of the Irish border.

[...]

Given doubts in Brussels that May will get a deal through parliament, or remain in Downing Street for long if she manages it with the help of Labour votes, there will not be the high level of detail that the British government has been seeking, sources said.

[...]

The official added: "The reality is that, imagine after March next year the UK gets rid of May, the hard Brexiters take over and Boris says: 'Too bad. I am not interested in all this. I want a basic free trade agreement, I want all my freedom.' We have to adjust.

"In the unlikely event of Jeremy Corbyn having a heart attack and Chuka Umunna taking over, he says the objective is to be in the European Economic Area. Why would we refuse?"

Damn. I wonder how much humiliation May can take from the EU and her own right wingers.


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/31/jeremy-hunt-urges-france-germany-force-sensible-brexit-deal

In an interview before his trip to France, Hunt warned the EU's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, that his approach to the talks would inflict a "breakdown in relations and trust" between Britain and the continent, which would be a "profound geostrategic mistake".

There was already a massive breakdown in trust between Britain and the continent. A majority of Brits voted to get out of the continental project. And yes, that was a profound geostrategic mistake. Not sure how the EU could be blamed for this though. Britain wanted it, the EU didn't.

[Valmy]

What is Britain going to do? Ally with Russia?

I fail to see what huge geostrategic shake-up not kissing British ass could have. It seems to me Hunt is asking France and Germany to sacrifice their interests in exchange for warm fuzzy feelings from the Brexiters and little else.

[Tamas]

I liked how the new Foreign Secretary said the EU thinks the UK will blink and that's a misunderstanding of the British character.

That's like you are driving in your hatchback playing chicken with a lorry and proudly declaring you'll not budge. Well good for you, mate.

[Zanza]

France and Germany are acting according to their geo-strategic interests. It's just that their interest is keeping the integrity of the single market and make leaving the EU unattractive. There is no real reason why they would blink. The economic damage of a no deal Brexit is containable. Political fallout of a no deal will be domestically in Britain. As it is completely unclear what way Britain will take in the next years, there is nothing to be gained by making concessions now either. Maybe Britain will renege on any deal anyway (Gove faction), maybe it will be ruled by nationalists or populists or socialists or it might actually have a sane government that will still be interested in a deal after Brexit Day. 

[The Minsky Moment]

I agree mostly with Zanza but France and Germany do collectively export over $100 billion per year to the UK; it's also in their geostrategic interest that the UK be healthy and stable, and not ruled by either Right Wing Nutcase (Johnson) or Left Wing Nutcase (Corbyn).  The UK needs a decent deal more than Rest of EU (bar Ireland) but there is still good reason for the EU to make some reasonable compromise.  The question is whether the Tory Party's toxic politics will permit a deal with only reasonable compromises.

[Richard Hakluyt]

The risks are far greater than economic disruption.

Crashing out of the EU without a deal could be the first step in a ten-step process of becoming a rogue state.

Looking at what many brexit foot-soldiers say, they want the sort of "sovereignty" enjoyed by North Korea; ie Britain does whatever the fuck it wants and the rest of the world looks on aghast.

Just because the situation is bad doesn't mean it can't get a lot worse.

[garbon]

Maybe but I don't think Britain can actually do whatever it wants and the Brexit vote notwithstanding I don't think there is evidence that the British public are infinitely patient with their leadership. Nor that said leadership is at all competent enough to manage such.