Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Crazy_Ivan80]

There's no way that I know of that the EU can compel the Brits to pay anything after the Brits leave, and I certainly don't see why any British government would agree to payments on the order of magnitude suggested in the article.  There might be some kind of exit fee that gets negotiated, but I'd think it would be more or less a nominal amount (keeping in mind that "nominal" when we're talking about government budgets still might be a very large amount of money to any average individual).

making big demands at the start of negotiations is a common tactic....

[Richard Hakluyt]

Hopefully there will be an overlap in what each party actually finds acceptable. It is important to remember that this is not a zero-sum game. FACT!




Sorry  , I think it is catching.

[Valmy]

Well this will certainly be a bit that flips more remainers to glad they are leaving Europe /make the Brexiters feel a greater sense of we told you so.

So if the EU gives Britain a really good deal then everybody will want to stay because the EU is so great?

[Duque de Bragança]

Hopefully there will be an overlap in what each party actually finds acceptable. It is important to remember that this is not a zero-sum game. FACT!




Sorry  , I think it is catching.

So sad!

[garbon]

Well this will certainly be a bit that flips more remainers to glad they are leaving Europe /make the Brexiters feel a greater sense of we told you so.

So if the EU gives Britain a really good deal then everybody will want to stay because the EU is so great?

I think I've said this already before. If the only way to.keep member states is by fear of retribution, perhaps that's not a union worth preserving.

Might make sense to spend energies encouraging remaining EU nations and citizens to be excited to be in EU.

[Solmyr]

This is somewhat difficult when the national media don't report anything positive that the EU does because the governments claim it's their actions.

[Valmy]

What better way to do that then to unite against the perfidious Albion and their backstabbing ways?

Hate has always brought the Europeans together better than love anyway 

[garbon]

This is somewhat difficult when the national media don't report anything positive that the EU does because the governments claim it's their actions.

So what's the answer? Just keep positive thoughts that no one else wants to leave if Britain is treated poorly enough?

[garbon]

What better way to do that then to unite against the perfidious Albion and their backstabbing ways?

Hate has always brought the Europeans together better than love anyway 

I'm not sure why that would bring them together. Sure the EU politicians but the citizenry who are the ones who vote in referendums on whether or not to leave?

[garbon]

And hard brexit!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/10/brexit-transitional-deal-will-lock-uk-into-eu-court-guy-verhofstadt

Brexit transitional deal will lock UK into EU court, says Verhofstadt

Britain will remain under the jurisdiction of the European court of justice for years to come if it seeks a transition deal to cushion its withdrawal from the EU, the chief negotiator for the European parliament has said.

In the clearest sign to date that Britain is on a collision course with Brussels over the court, Guy Verhofstadt said European negotiators were primed to push back against Theresa May's promises to remove the UK from the writ of European judges as soon as Britain leaves the EU in 2019.

Verhofstadt, who is representing the parliament in the article 50 negotiations, said he expected a transition agreement to be put together following the settling of Britain's debts and before withdrawal in 2019.

But asked whether the UK would remain under the European court of justice after 2019, the former Belgian prime minister said: "The starting point from the European side will be yes.

[Zanza]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-news-eu-workers-nationals-labour-shortage-contribute-uk-cipd-europe-quit-2017-a7576991.html

Sectors of the UK economy which are heavily reliant on EU nationals are starting to experience skills and labour shortages, with research suggesting that the squeeze could be down to fewer EU workers seeking jobs in Britain in the wake of last year's Brexit vote.

[...]

"This is creating significant recruitment challenges in sectors that have historically relied on non-UK labour to fill roles," Gerwyn Davies, labour market adviser for the CIPD, said. He said that people who fill those role tend to be "particularly vulnerable to the prospect of future changes to EU immigration policy".

He said that "with skills and labour shortages set to continue", there's a risk that many positions will be left unfilled which in turn could "act as a brake on output growth in the UK in the years ahead".

The growth in the number of non-UK nationals from the EU working in the UK almost halved from an average of more than 60,000 per quarter in the nine months leading up to the June referendum to just 30,000 in the three months to September 2016, said CIPD, citing ONS data.

Success! 

I wonder if this is a sustained reduction in immigration or just a statistical exception.

[Zanza]

And hard brexit!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/10/brexit-transitional-deal-will-lock-uk-into-eu-court-guy-verhofstadt

Brexit transitional deal will lock UK into EU court, says Verhofstadt

Britain will remain under the jurisdiction of the European court of justice for years to come if it seeks a transition deal to cushion its withdrawal from the EU, the chief negotiator for the European parliament has said.

In the clearest sign to date that Britain is on a collision course with Brussels over the court, Guy Verhofstadt said European negotiators were primed to push back against Theresa May's promises to remove the UK from the writ of European judges as soon as Britain leaves the EU in 2019.

Verhofstadt, who is representing the parliament in the article 50 negotiations, said he expected a transition agreement to be put together following the settling of Britain's debts and before withdrawal in 2019.

But asked whether the UK would remain under the European court of justice after 2019, the former Belgian prime minister said: "The starting point from the European side will be yes.

Is this even applicable? Does Britain seek a transistional deal? It was considered occasionally by people including Secretary Davis, but I never heard anything like it from Theresa May herself. I doubt the hard brexit proponents that seem to be in the driver's seat at the moment would stand for it. They seem to just want out, no matter the potential negative effects.

[The Larch]

UK fishermen may not win waters back after Brexit, EU memo reveals

Document obtained by the Guardian states existing quotas will remain despite promises made by leave campaigners


The hopes of British fishermen that the UK can win its "waters back" after Brexit are expected to be dashed by the European parliament, despite the campaign promises of Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage, a leaked EU document reveals.

MEPs have drafted seven provisions to be included in Britain's "exit agreement", including the stipulation that there will be "no increase to the UK's share of fishing opportunities for jointly fished stocks [maintaining the existing quota distribution in UK and EU waters]".

The document, obtained by the Guardian, adds that in order for the UK and EU to keep to commitments on sustainable fishing – contained within the United Nations stocks agreement – "it is difficult to see any alternative to the continued application of the common fisheries policy".

It is estimated that there only about 11,000 people directly employed in fishing in the UK, however the UK's trawlermen were among the most vocal critics of the EU during the referendum, fuelled by frustration over controls on fishing quotas, which have been blamed on Brussels and the common fisheries policy (CFP).

While calling for control over Britain's waters, Farage, the then Ukip leader, and the Labour MP Kate Hoey led a small flotilla of fishermen up the Thames days before the EU referendum in June, where they clashed with rival boats led by the singer and political activist Bob Geldof.

Speaking at the time, Farage said: "Today's flotilla is not a celebration or a party but a full-throttled protest. We want our waters back."

During the referendum campaign, Johnson, who is now the foreign secretary, described the CFP as "crazy" and claimed the EU had inflicted a "tragedy" on the industry, halving the number of people working within it.

But the leaked report from the European parliament's committee on fisheries insists that the "granting of access to the EU domestic market to the UK" post-Brexit should be conditional on Britain continuing to respect the rights and obligations in the CFP.

In a move that will frustrate many in the UK industry, the MEPs also insist that EU vessel-owners should continue to be allowed to manage boats under the UK flag. It has been reported that the Dutch-owned trawler, the Cornelis Vrolijk, accounts for 23% of the English fishing quota.

The document says that as well as "reciprocal access for the EU and UK fleets to the fishing grounds in the UK and the EU waters" any exit deal must include measures "ensuring the maintenance of the same legal conditions for UK-registered vehicles, without requiring stronger economic links that could virtually make it impossible for EU vessel-owners managing UK flagged vessels to continue operating in the UK".

The document concludes: "The nature of future EU-UK relations in fisheries needs to be seen in relation to the UK's ambition in keeping close ties with its European partners and the common market ... Every agreement that guarantees UK access to the EU domestic market has to guarantee an access to the UK fishing grounds for the EU fleet."

The European parliament will make public its red lines a few weeks after Theresa May triggers article 50 negotiations. Each committee has been asked by its leaders for input. The intention is for the documents to aid the EU's chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, and the European council in shaping their negotiating position.

The government's white paper failed to offer any commitments to UK trawlers over the future, despite the sector having a high profile in the referendum campaign. The paper merely noted that "in 2015 EU vessels caught 683,000 tonnes (£484m revenue) in UK waters and UK vessels caught 111,000 tonnes (£114m revenue) in member states' waters".

It added: "Given the heavy reliance on UK waters of the EU fishing industry and the importance of EU waters to the UK, it is in both our interests to reach a mutually beneficial deal that works for the UK and the EU's fishing communities."

Barrie Deas, chief executive of the National Federation of Fishermen's Organisations, said he understood why the EU would start negotiations with a "hard line" but that he believed there would be radical changes for the industry.

He said: "I understand where they are coming from. It's quite a hard line to go into a negotiation and we are waiting to see what the UK's position is. But the reality is that there is a huge imbalance in terms of other member states fishing in UK water.

"Around 85% of the current catch of the Danish fleet is in UK waters and 80% of the current catch of the fleet from Normandy. If we look at quota shares in Channel cod, the French have 84% and Britain has 9%.

"There will be change once we leave the European Union. I think the model is the bilateral agreement that Norway has with the EU. But things are going to change," Deas said.

Liberal Democrat environment spokesperson Baroness Parminter said: "Yet another of the leave campaign's promises has been shown to be nothing but hot air.

"The Common Fisheries has been far from perfect. But the reality is fish stocks do not respect borders, so the only way to prevent overfishing is to work closely with our European neighbours.

"This shows yet again why the people must be given the final say on the Brexit deal, so everyone including fishing communities can decide if it's right for them."

The Ukip fisheries spokesman, Mike Hookem, attacked the MEPs behind the leaked report as "desperate".

He said: "UK waters and fish stocks must return to UK control post-Brexit.

"This is nothing more than the EU wanting to have their cake and eat it. Time and again we are told the UK will not get any 'special deals' post-Brexit. Well, in that case, it should work both ways, and UK waters must return to UK control regardless of what the EU want."

[Zanza]

I am always surprised at the outsized influence the primary sector has on politics.

[The Larch]

I am always surprised at the outsized influence the primary sector has on politics.

Their constituencies are small and relatively small groups of people can make a difference. Also, when they get pissed, they can show it in really eye catching ways.