Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[garbon]

I remember the angst when inside smoking was banned, the world was to end then as well. It didn't. It's a nasty habit practiced by a minority, negatively impacting a large number of people around them.

100%

And Sheilbh, sounds like you hang with some nasty gays.

[Syt]

I remember the angst when inside smoking was banned, the world was to end then as well. It didn't. It's a nasty habit practiced by a minority, negatively impacting a large number of people around them.

Same in Austria (and Austria has a fairly high percentage of smokers still). Though it didn't help that before that we had a few years of half measures where places needed to have separate smoking/non-smoking areas which in practice was just a huge mess (i.e. smoke still going to non-smoking areas despite walls/doors, or smoking sections in the "popular" areas near the bar and entrance etc.).

[Gups]

I remember the angst when inside smoking was banned, the world was to end then as well. It didn't. It's a nasty habit practiced by a minority, negatively impacting a large number of people around them.

Nobody said the world was going to end. They did say that a lot of pubs would close as a result and they have.

https://iea.org.uk/blog/is-the-smoking-ban-to-blame-for-the-high-rate-of-pub-closures

I was a smoker at the time but supported the ban. I don't smoke or vape now but would be very opposed to a ban on outside smoking, although wouldn't have a problem with no smoking areas within pub gardens.

[garbon]

I remember the angst when inside smoking was banned, the world was to end then as well. It didn't. It's a nasty habit practiced by a minority, negatively impacting a large number of people around them.

Nobody said the world was going to end. They did say that a lot of pubs would close as a result and they have.

https://iea.org.uk/blog/is-the-smoking-ban-to-blame-for-the-high-rate-of-pub-closures

I was a smoker at the time but supported the ban. I don't smoke or vape now but would be very opposed to a ban on outside smoking, although wouldn't have a problem with no smoking areas within pub gardens.

A free market think tank blames the bans?

Another take from a somewhat more recent perspective.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-40444460

Pub smoking ban: 10 charts that show the impact

2. Have pubs taken a hit?
The number of pubs in the UK has been falling. Between 2007 and 2015, the UK lost nearly 7,000 pubs.

Some publicans and other critics say the smoking ban played a large part in this. Simon Clark, of the smokers' rights lobby group Forest, says the impact has been "devastating".

But there are other factors too. There has been a massive decline in the amount of beer people drink, external.

The British Beer and Pub Association cites the rise in the tax applied to drinks - and beer in particular. The beer duty escalator meant that between 2008 and 2013 the duty increased by 42% and this has come at a time when supermarkets have tried to entice shoppers in with discounts on booze.

At the same time as the smoking ban came in, the economic crash was about to start. It had a massive impact on incomes in the UK. Average real-terms pay is still below where it was 10 years ago.

With all these factors happening at the same time, BBPA spokesman Neil Williams says it is "pretty impossible" to unpick exactly what the individual impact of the ban has been.

And of course, many pubs have thrived since the smoking ban, changing to focus more on high-quality food and trying to attract families - including those with young children - who would previously have avoided smoky atmospheres.

"Pubs have had to adapt. We've seen those that can invest in food and they've made a very good job of it.

"But some pubs - the traditional street-corner boozer - simply haven't had the space to do that. They are the ones that have suffered."

And there's a wider picture. People in the UK seem to be drinking less.

The Office for National Statistics says that between 2005 and 2016, the number of people saying they had had anything to drink, external in the previous week fell from 64% to 57%. The numbers drinking on five days or more a week nearly halved over that time.

[Richard Hakluyt]

When I was a youngster beer bought in a pub was roughly the same price as beer bought from an off licence. Since then booze sales from supermarkets have expanded rapidly, the price differential has increased and the number of pubs has fallen.

Looking around I found this article https://www.ias.org.uk/news/supermarket-alcohol-188-more-affordable-than-thirty-years-ago/ which backs up my anecdotal point.

Also, if you look at figure 1 in this https://ukhsa.blog.gov.uk/2015/06/17/alcohol-some-encouraging-trends/ article, booze consumption started rising in the UK in the 1960s even while the number of pubs started its long fall. This coincides with alcohol sales being permited from supermarkets (1962).

Pre-loading became a thing and, with the internet, the older boozer could get pissed at home while going down internet rabbit-holes.

I think this has been bad for society; it was better when people met with others when they wanted a drink, and they even drank less. I suggest some social engineering, such as doubling the tax on off sales booze. It will help the government balance the books, lower antisocial home drinking (and probably total alcohol consumption) and help out pubs....a good set of wins 

[Josquius]

Yeah, colour me skeptical on the smoking ban=pub closures one.

Trying out copilot, so take with a pinch of salt though it does line up with the big numbers that you'll find in BBC articles and similar to https://www.statista.com/statistics/310723/total-number-of-pubs-in-the-united-kingdom/ (which hides its source)

2000: 60,800 pubs
2001: 60,100 pubs
2002: 59,400 pubs
2003: 58,800 pubs
2004: 58,200 pubs
2005: 57,600 pubs
2006: 56,900 pubs
2007: 56,300 pubs
2008: 55,700 pubs
2009: 55,100 pubs
2010: 54,500 pubs
2011: 53,900 pubs
2012: 53,300 pubs
2013: 52,700 pubs
2014: 52,100 pubs
2015: 51,500 pubs
2016: 50,900 pubs
2017: 50,300 pubs
2018: 49,700 pubs
2019: 49,100 pubs
2020: 48,500 pubs

On this at least not really seeing a change in closure rates. Possibly on the statistica one an initial sharp drop off, perhaps specialised smoking pubs dying, but then that lines up with the financial crisis too.

I'd believe its a factor. A little extra push to not go to the pub for smokers.... but then not having to deal with smoke would be a bit of a pull for others.
But much bigger factors are the liberalisation of alcohol sales in shops, the sharply dividing price difference between shops and pubs, increase in rent prices, increase in predatory capitalists (Vaux ), tightened up drink-driving laws (I recall reading a while ago data from Japan that showed how much this absolutely shattered things there), and the general decline in societal cohesion (cars play a role here too, as gotta blame them) etc...

Though as I've mentioned before I do think the decline of pubs in the UK is a travesty and we need to fight it, keeping smoking out of it isn't really related.

[Syt]

The last two years have been tougher on the gastronomy in Austria than the smoking ban or Corona (during which the state gave very generously to restaurants, cafés and bars.

There's a number of factors coming together:
- people just not going out as much any more
- inflation for gastro input goods
- steep increase in rents in many areas
- struggling to find personnel (or rather: personnel willing to work for pre-Covid wages)
- many restaurants/bars/cafés jacking up prices to compensate ... though studies have shown that those increases are often significantly higher than the other increases would suggest

Overall, food in drink in many places (esp. in Vienna) has gone up 25-35% in the last two years. That goes from McDonald's and kebab stands to the haute cuisine (some added more, some less to their prices, e.g. for the fast food sector research shows that while the goods, rents, salaries in the sector increased in price around 20%, the average price increase was 35%). And while inflation (which was higher in Austria than in most EU countries in the past two years) slowed down, it was mostly gastronomy and hotels that were driving up the inflation values towards the end.

Which in turn leads to people going out less ...

Anecdotal evidence: the breakfast I sometimes took at my corner café has gone from EUR 10 to 13.50, the coffee to go with it from 2.80 to 3.80. A kebab that used to be 2.50 to 3.50 EUR is now at 5-6 EUR. The place where we would sometimes go for burritos changed prices from between 8.90 and 10.90 to 11.90 and 13.90. This was all in the past two years.

So I feel smoking is the least of their worries at the moment.

[garbon]

So I feel smoking is the least of their worries at the moment.

To be fair to pub owners, I think their stance would be this is yet another factor that can bring them down when they are already weak. We also need to be mindful though that the priorities of pub owners are not wholly congruent with the priorities of society at large.

[PJL]

I was a smoker at the time but supported the ban. I don't smoke or vape now but would be very opposed to a ban on outside smoking, although wouldn't have a problem with no smoking areas within pub gardens.

I very much suspect that no smoking / smoking areas in beer gardens will end up being what will happen. The alarmist stories of initial proposals which are then subsequently watered down to something not so bad fits into the MO of previous governments (Tory & Labour).

[garbon]

I was a smoker at the time but supported the ban. I don't smoke or vape now but would be very opposed to a ban on outside smoking, although wouldn't have a problem with no smoking areas within pub gardens.

I very much suspect that no smoking / smoking areas in beer gardens will end up being what will happen. The alarmist stories of initial proposals which are then subsequently watered down to something not so bad fits into the MO of previous governments (Tory & Labour).

They might as well not bother then...

[Norgy]

We have outside smoking bans in most garden restaurants.

They seem to thrive, because, mostly few smoke anymore.
I don't mind the bans so much as I mind that those who still smoke, who are mostly lower-class people living on benefits, are forced to part with around 30 Euros for a 50 gram pack of rolling tobacco.

I think an 0,5 litre of beer passed the 10 Euro mark a few years ago in Norway if you buy it in a bar or a pub. In a supermarket it's 1/3 of the price even for imported beer.

So people sit at home and drink. And smoke.

[Grey Fox]

Before the smoking bans, did people drive to the pubs?

[crazy canuck]

We've had complete smoking bands in place here for a long time.  Pubs continue to exist.

[Sheilbh]

Scandal brewing for Labour that one of their new MPs, Jas Athwal, appears to have basically been a slumlord. He's the new MP for Ilford South and was, for the ten previous years, leader of the local council.

Turns out he owns several flats that had infestations, black mould and threatened people with eviction - and apparently refused to let to people on benefits because it "might create a conflict of interests" given that he was leader of the council (which pays housing benefit).

Needs whip removing and kicked out the party ASAP. I don't think you can have housing as a core part of your program as a government and also have an MP behaving like that.

[crazy canuck]

What vetting does the parties in the UK do for their candidates?