Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Lots of stories of Conservative ridings that had huge majorities flipping to Labour.

I think the biggest was possibly Liz Truss's seat (lots going on there) with a 26% swing. Labour were winning seats beyond the edge of the BBC's swingometer which went to 20% swing

Also both Labour and Lib Dems held seats they won in by-elections that I think everyone assumed would go back to the Tories. The Lib Dems did very well - best result since 1923 I think with over 70 seats. It's possible the biggest swings might be the two very rural seats the Greens won directly from the Tories.

Looks like voter turnout was down since last time.

Yeah, down 7% to 60%. Second lowest turnout since 1885, the previous lowest was 2001 - and that's possibly part of the story. As in 2001 it was, perhaps, because it was a bit of a foregone conclusion. So as is often the case turnout seems higher in areas where things were tight or perceived as competitive.

I think the Tory campaign moved to "please just don't destroy us" in the last week and I think that probably hit turnout. But the other interesting story in this election was Labour in strong Labour areas losing lots of votes - and having particularly lower turnout. So that reflects something of the lack of enthusiasm for Starmer and the disillusionment of the left - but I also think it's particularly Gaza. I think four independents won very solid Labour seats (and unseated one frontbencher and came within a few hundred votes of a few other very prominent scalps).

I think with Gaza in mind particularly, Stephen Bush's line is striking, that the Labour vote looks a lot like it did in 2005 (after Iraq) - just the Tories in a far worse state and voters far more flighty.

What is an interesting angle that is a problem for Labour (and possibly not great for our politics) - areas with a large Hindu population saw about a 20% swing against Labour and areas with a large Muslim population also saw 20% swing against Labour. Given that British Asians are the largest minorities I think that's a problem (especially for a party of the left that considers itself, but perhaps doesn't behave as, the natural "home" for minorities). I think as Starmer's re-built Labour's support among Red Wall voters - though it's still provisional - they need to put real work into to re-build their support with British Asians. That may not be possible with Starmer given the damage of that very early LBC clip on Gaza.

Meanwhile, removal vans in Downing Street.

[Sheilbh]

Labour has taken my constituency from the Torries, by getting about 2% more than them, however the Tories had a bit more than 20% lead last time around. It seems however thst 2/3rd of the lost Tory vote went to Reform.

It's a mistake - and a mistake the Tories may be about to make - to just add up the Tory vote and Reform though. If Reform is anything like UKIP or the Brexit Party, then they'll take from Labour and Tories. And also I think do fairly well with the "curse on both your houses" non-voters.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Wes Streeting and Jess Phillips both got in by only a few hundred votes. The pro-Gaza chap here in Preston, I mentioned him in an earlier post, came second with 9k votes to the winner's (Labour) 14k votes.

Labour has 35% of the votes cast; with a 60% turnout that is 21% of the electors. I don't think that triumphalism is a mode that Starmer favours and I think that is right in current circumstances. There are very few safe seats now and I think that Labour needs to establish a reputation for probity and competence if they want to do well in the next election.

[Sheilbh]

I think that's absolutely right.

I think it's also why the analysis of the Tories - no doubt including in their leadership election - will be about left/right. Whether they leaned too far to the right and that opened the space for the Lib Dems, did they disappoint the right which led to the four Reform MPs etc. I don't think that's right. I think this was, in James Morris' phrase, a valence election. It was anti-Tory and rather than worrying whether someone's on the right, left or centre on the party I think they'd do a lot better focusing on whether a candidate is seen as trustworthy, serious, competent, decent. Because that's where the Tories lost not on actual right-left politics.

In terms of probity possibly worth keeping an eye on hospitality (particularly with Starmer). But - and I think it's a point Labour get - they need to deliver (and that's why their manifesto has relatively attainable policy commitments).

On that front one thing that has worried me for a while is there energy policy. They've not watered that down very much (not even to include a caveat around security of supply, as the Tories did on decarbonisation of the grid). I've read many pieces pointing out practical issues such as the amount of electricity infrastructure that needs to be built. Others pointing out that basically everyone in the sector thinks Labour's goals are impossible to meet. And underpinning it all is my nagging concern that this is a really key area, that's going to be very difficult at best and it'll be Ed Miliband to deliver It's the only big area of policy where I think they have made a promise that I think they will really, really struggle to meet.

[Richard Hakluyt]

To take cars, for example, ICE cars are supposed to be phased out by 2035. We currently have a 7-year-old ICE car which we will want to replace with an electric car in about 5 years time. But, like millions of others we live in a terraced house so have no way to charge an electric car. Nothing seems to be being done to resolve this problem; basically we need public charging points lining the terraced streets if the target is to be met.

The UK has reduced its emissions by 50% since the peak, but I do feel that it has all been the easy stuff and almost inevitable due to deindustrialisation. we have seen lots of "legally binding targets" and very little movement on the infrastructure required....and the UK is shit at rapid construction of new infrastructure 

[Sheilbh]

Or decarbonising the grid by 2030 (Tory target was 2035). As I say literally no one in the sector thinks it's possible, even if we didn't also need to massively increase supply for things like EV. And maybe I'm being unfair because of his time as leader but Miliband worries me.

Edit: And the only explanation I've seen for Labour for 2030 is that you need a very ambitious target to focus Whitehall - which seems a little damning in its own way.

Separately return of Scottish Labour is hugely significant. SNP have collapsed everywhere but Labour winning back all of Glasgow and, by the looks of it, basically the entire Central Belt is massive. Especially from where they were in 2015.

[Admiral Yi]

I feel bad for Sunak.

[Sheilbh]

He has looked broken for the last fortnight or so.

On the other  hand I do slightly think that punishment elections and the swift, unsentimental transfer of power (the removal vans already being booked) etc are a useful, important bit of democratic hygiene.

Sunak's speech already clearing the very low bar set by Johnson and Truss.

Edit: Also very good that he's suggested he's willing to stay on as caretaker for his party to have a long leadership election (if they want one). They need a post-mortem period.

[Sheilbh]

Lots of stories of Conservative ridings that had huge majorities flipping to Labour.

It was Liz Truss. Truly cannot stop breaking records: shortest serving PM, first former PM in over a century to lose her seat and the largest ever swing in a constituency from Tories to Labour

[Admiral Yi]

I don't feel sorry for Liz Truss.  Or Rhees-Moggs.

[The Brain]

Tear-falling pity dwells not in this eye.

[Sheilbh]

Sunak's resignation speech, which I think was good (and vastly more dignified than Johnson or Truss - again, a low bar). But, again grim we need to remember it, loser's consent is really, really important:
https://x.com/itvnews/status/1809164201841033279?s=46&t=o9GOIj6BKKcLcHiyQTlAoA

Starmer seemed so much more relaxed in his victory speech too compared to during the election or last five years. I can't help but suspect him and his team might have an announcement to launch today - like Brown doing Bank of England independence the day after the 97 election. As much as anything just to remind people that governments can do things.

[Tamas]

I have a feeling Owen Jones is typing away furiously right now:

My colleague Pippa Crerar picked up on this bit of Starmer's speech, where he asked whether people believed that life was getting better for their children, before using that phrase "unburdened by doctrine".

Starmer promises to try to restore hope to the country.

"If I asked you now whether you believe that Britain will be better for your children, I know too many of you would say no. And so my government will fight every day until you believe again.

"From now, you have a...

— Pippa Crerar (@PippaCrerar) July 5, 2024
Ben Riley-Smith, the Telegraph's political editor, suggests it is "perhaps the most significant phrase" of the speech. He posted:

Perhaps the most significant phrase hidden in that Starmer speech – this will be a "government unburdened by doctrine". His leadership has rejected the simple ideological templates of the left. Starmer, aides say, is "outcomes foccused". A declaration he'll continue that approach.

Perhaps the most significant phrase hidden in that Starmer speech - this will be a "government unburdened by doctrine"

His leadership has rejected the simple ideological templates of the Left. Starmer, aides say, is 'outcomes foccused'

A declaration he'll continue that approach

— Ben Riley-Smith (@benrileysmith) July 5, 2024
Another phrase that stuck out for me was "End the era of noisy performance", which suggests, at least for a little while, we might have a bit less of ministers going out to bat during the morning media rounds stirring up culture war issues or repeatedly defending lines that are clearly indefensible. We shall soon see on that score.

[HVC]

I feel bad for Sunak.

He's got a rich wife, he'll be fine

[Tamas]

Yeah no sympathy for being a quietly incompetent prick in a team of loud wrecking balls.

He sided with the hard Brexiteers he served under Johnson, then his party membership chose a visibly insane white woman over his Hindu ass, but still he put up with all that crap just to sit in the chair and do nothing.

Fuck him.