Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Josquius]

They aren't going to win though are they. In their position their numbers don't have to add up and they can promise the moon.
The best possible outcome for the greens is a few MPs and even that is overly optimistic IMO.
A Green government in a world gone mad would be a disaster. A few Green MPs in parliament... That would be good.

No. The Labour candidate has a pretty dodgy record and she doesn't come across well personally. Given she's looking at getting 70% anyway... I feel safe in not holding my nose and giving a token vote vaguely in a direction I like.

[Sheilbh]

Right - but surely that's how people on the right are thinking? Just with instead of Labour are definitely going to win so I want a few Green MPs to help; Labour are definitely going to win, the Tories have let us done for 14 years so let's get a few Reform MPs.

Separately - I think for all the stuff written about imperial nostalgia (which I'm very sceptical of), there's a bigger, deeper strain of isolationism (also in the US and perhaps in the Fortress Europe version of Europe). I think with a populist and a sophisticated strain (and I think the imperial nostalgia is broadly in the sophisticated side):


Arming Ukraine has overwhelming support but the position of the Gulf War (with a UN mandate) and Kosovo (stopping a genocide) here is unfortunate. Again I can't help but think of Macron's point about post-modernism and the lack of belief in anything including progress.

[HVC]

A big chunk of the Kosovo and gulf war are don't know, which probably means don't  know about the actual war rather then don't know how they feel. More of an educational failing (if anything), but there so many wars and only so much time to teach about them.

[Tonitrus]

I am sure the respondents that think the UK should have stayed out of WW2 are a hoot.

[Josquius]

Right - but surely that's how people on the right are thinking? Just with instead of Labour are definitely going to win so I want a few Green MPs to help; Labour are definitely going to win, the Tories have let us done for 14 years so let's get a few Reform MPs.

The dissonance was the same inputs leading to completely different outputs of farage or Galloway.

They also actually seem to want reform to win. They give no sign of supporting the tories whilst voting elsewhere.

Also I don't blame the rich for supporting reforms agenda. But when working class and lower people are cheering for it... Just like brexit it's a clear sign of idiocy.

Arming Ukraine has overwhelming support but the position of the Gulf War (with a UN mandate) and Kosovo (stopping a genocide) here is unfortunate. Again I can't help but think of Macron's point about post-modernism and the lack of belief in anything including progress.

I'd just blame ignorance rather than any actual belief there. How many people know why the gulf War and kosovo war happened?

[Josquius]

Looking at the list of local candidates there's quite a range available this time. Traditionally I only ever had the big 3 + the nazis of the week.

The list incudes...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_of_Women



Bloody hell. These people sound awful.


Also loving the Green candidate list in County Durham. Starts looking very mainstream and normal but by the end... Yes. Can't really see that name standing elsewhere. Really proves the bit about the Greens just piling up baggage from their entire history.
https://durham.greenparty.org.uk/ge2024-candidates/

[Sheilbh]

Looking at my constituency I've got Labour, Lib Dems, Tories, Reforms and Greens running.

Then Workers Party, Communists (CPB), the Alliance for Green Socialism and an independent. Splitters everywhere

[Valmy]

The Alliance for Green Socialism? Fuck off! We're the Socialist Green Alliance!

[Gups]

Looking at my constituency I've got Labour, Lib Dems, Tories, Reforms and Greens running.

Then Workers Party, Communists (CPB), the Alliance for Green Socialism and an independent. Splitters everywhere

Hmm, I've only got the first 5 plus an independent. The only information available on independent is that he is in a thrash rock band and that his favourite biscuit is the kitkat.

[PJL]

I'm in one of the few constituencies where Reform aren't standing. Otherwise it's pretty much your usual - Conservative, Liberal Democrats, Labour and Green, plus one independent candidate.

[Sheilbh]

On a "punishment" election, some striking polling from the Telegraph. A quarter of the Conservative Party's 2019 voters think they deserve to lose every seat they hold:


And on age breakdown


On needing a strong opposition the public don't really care about how low the Tories go. Even if you say how they'd feel about them falling to 50 seats, people are broadly okay with that. When the public turns, they really turn

I think people are maybe underrating the possibility of Labour winning big. But also, maybe a socialist one party state is just the will of the people.

Edit: Also Guardian's Dining Across the Divide found an amazing voter. UKIP-Lib Dem swing

[Richard Hakluyt]

A yougov poll has put Reform one point ahead of the tories https://www.thetimes.com/article/cdc8d582-17fc-4757-8f4b-ddcee80fdfdb?shareToken=03ce0c205cae031e1f067d82e22828f4

Note that Reform+Tory =37% , the same as Labour 

Only one poll of course, so the usual disclaimers.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - and also YouGov who tend to poll well for Reform (plus their methodology change).

There's been a split between online polls (they tend to do better) and telephone polls on how well Reform poll. Generally they underperform both. My theory is that even with all the controlling people responding to online polls are still likely to be more engaged so more aware of them - and that gap would diminish with Farage coming back because he cuts through beyond social media (though is apparently quite a presence on TikTok).

But I think looking at the YouGov chart over time indicates the problem for the Tories - because there's a Reform and Lib Dem rise:
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49735-reform-now-1pt-ahead-of-the-tories-although-this-is-still-within-the-margin-of-error

Depending on how that's geographically spread, the Lib Dems could do a lot more damage. It seems possible to me that in seats the Tories won in 2017 and 2019, the Tories fall to third behind Labour and Reform; but that Lib Dem rise might cost them a lot of seats if the Lib Dems roar back in the West Country or the South-East.

Edit: And I think the Lib Dems doing better has happened in a few polls were they're up almost 5% since the start of the campaign. But I think there is something to Stephen Bush's point that generally YouGov have form for overstating Reform and understating the Tories (his theory isn't engagement but that "Reform" is how conservative men say "don't know" ).

[Josquius]

It is a shame that so many right wingers look at the conservatives being such a disaster and rather than going "like that but sane" and voting lib dem instead say "harder, do us harder" ands say reform.

[Sheilbh]

Different bits of support particularly with the 2019 coalition of voters who elected the Tories.