Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Tamas]

  the first and last pictures are not a good look for Sunak are they?

[Zanza]

He does not seem to be good at politics. Maybe he should do something else.

[Sheilbh]

I can only imagine Santa Barbara looks more alluring with each passing minute

Can't help but wonder if there is a point in this long campaign when actually the public start feeling sorry for him/"at least he's having a go" etc.

[Admiral Yi]

As for Ireland. Defence isn't really significant part of the EU. Again ideal world maybe this will change and I've no opposition to Ireland being involved.
As things stand Ireland is in a lucky situation of being able to hide behind Britain. I totally get why they take this easy option.

I totally get why any non front line state free rides.

[Sheilbh]

This front-page for the Independent doing the rounds - and rightly because the framing is very, very weird:


I'd get it from the right-wing press where the contrast's particularly extreme as Starmer's ratings are about the same as Johnson's on becoming PM (which was low). But obviously for them Johnson was an all-conquering hero, while the public still aren't convinced with Starmer. But the Indy isn't a right-wing rag.

And the comparison that's often made is with 1997. Ultimately I think Blair was a generational talent so that's challenging to replicate, but the comparison with 97 isn't all bad - so far there's less tightening in the polls:


I just don't really get how you go from 20-25% lead to "struggling to capitalise"

Although I do think there's something to Duncan Robinson's point that if politics were in a better way, Rishi Sunak would be a solid if uninspiring junior minister and Keir Starmer would have a distinguished time serving as Attorney General.

[Tamas]

I think a lot of people want from politicians what Johnson, Trump, Orbán provides. Many don't like their politics but their main animosity is that they don't have such a charismatic entertainer on their side. This is revealed by the flak all boring calm people like Starmer get.

[Hamilcar]

The UK needs a period of introspection to deal with the fact that they haven't been a wealthy world power for a long time. Maybe they can emerge in a generation as a sort of chastened Belgium?

[Sheilbh]

Although it is worth saying that it depends what you mean by a lot of people in terms of Johnson (or Farage for that matter). Johnson came into power with negative approval ratings:


There is something to the criticism of Starmer - his approval ratings are lower than Cameron or Blair's as the last leaders of the opposition likely to beat a siting government. I can understand why the Tories and the right-wing press would focus on that.

But it seems weird to frame the front-page around if you're not doing that given the context of everything else: how much more unpopular Sunak is, the Labour lead etc. I suppose it's a way of injecting a little jeopardy into the election.

[Zanza]

The last category will be decisive.

[Tonitrus]

Although it is worth saying that it depends what you mean by a lot of people in terms of Johnson (or Farage for that matter). Johnson came into power with negative approval ratings:

I guess it has been normal for awhile...that success in politics is not about being liked, but about being disliked less than your opponents.

[Sheilbh]

I guess it has been normal for awhile...that success in politics is not about being liked, but about being disliked less than your opponents.

Yeah - although Britain is a bit more like France than America in that politicians have been unpopular or had negative approval ratings here for a very, very long time. We're not quite as extreme as France but a sitting PM having a positive approval rating is very rare.

Johnson at the start of covid (particularly when he was in hospital with it), but that was the first time the PM had a positive approval rating since Gordon Brown at the height of the financial crisis. Before then I'd guess it was probably Blair after 7/7 and his response to 9/11.

The last category will be decisive.

Yes but interesting how close both of those are to Starmer and Sunak's ratings. For a long time Sunak was more popular than the Conservatives and Starmer was less popular than Labour.

I think that might have shaped the campaigns they planned because Sunak's is very presidential - it's all about him - while Starmer's seems to involve the rest of the shadow cabinet more. But at this point I don't think it matters - although I've said for a while that I think there's a real possibility (which I think we're sort of seeing) of a meltdown in Sunak's popularity like Theresa May in 2017 but worse.

[Sheilbh]

So Tory party chairman - and I think Jos' MP or neighbouring MP - who was rejected by some seats eventually managed to find one. He even managed to get selected (by imposing a shortlist of one ). Being questioned on it by the media did not go well:
https://news.sky.com/story/tory-chairman-richard-holden-dodges-questions-about-being-parachuted-into-safe-seat-13150336

Absolutely ridiculous - and the context for this is two days of Sunak not doing any interviews or media time. The Tories are basically going radio silent.

[Josquius]

MP of next town over from my parents - formerly part of the same seat though after the last rearranging instead found itself tacked onto a huge rural area.
Everything he did was about posing and performance. The local railway reopening push for instance. From the get go it was purely designed for bashing labour.
It always amazed me he has managed to climb so high in the tories in 5 years, starting as a nobody thrown at a seat they were unlikely to win.

It is odd here he is getting such shit for this when it's fairly normal behaviour by parties. Labour is particularly doing it this election.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I think it may be because, for many voters, Tory Party Chairman = Crook.

[Sheilbh]

Slightly wondering if this is how the UK gets electoral reform. Massive landslide, all parties call for it and Labour feel embarrassed with their obviously ridiculous 480 MPs?