Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Zanza]

Let's hope that's it for now and the EU and Britain can just quietly work on some Details of the TCA going forward. I doubt anything big for the EU-UK relationship will change as there seems to be little appetite for that. Maybe Horizon is now possible. 

[PJL]

Far-right anti capitalistic conspiracy theories aren't a new thing.  The Word Economic Forum are the 21st century equivalent of the Rothschilds to them.

[Sheilbh]

Let's hope that's it for now and the EU and Britain can just quietly work on some Details of the TCA going forward. I doubt anything big for the EU-UK relationship will change as there seems to be little appetite for that. Maybe Horizon is now possible. 

Horizon's already in the TCA - and it sounds like that a deal on the NIP will unlock that. Which makes sense politically - from a strictly legal perspetive there's no linkage, but politically obviously they're connected.

The thing I suspect might be the area of both sides moving together will be around security - because both sides wanted it, but for fear of the other using it as leverage ruled it out as part of the divorce and then TCA talks.

[Sheilbh]

His politics aren't mine - but I think Steve Baker is interesting in a few ways (particularly his work on Islamophobia and supporting the 2022 Group for Black Conservatives). I think this is another - I'm glad he's well but I think it's generally good for politicians to talk about their mental health in this way and the toll our democratic politics can take:
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1630302891029217280

As I say, I suspect on the GB side there are very few issues politically in agreeing this - looks like over 400 votes in the Commons just based on the party leader responses (and assuming Sunak doesn't face a 50%+ rebellion).

[Richard Hakluyt]

Nice clip of Betty Boothroyd talking about brexit a few years back :

https://twitter.com/i/status/1630226405593174019

[Richard Hakluyt]

Very pleased about the deal which I see as an inflection point in UK-EU relations. With the UK returning to rationality we can start to repair the relationship. Hopefully Horizon will now be agreed, the current situation is bad for both British and European science (esp Britain of course as the smaller partner).

[Josquius]

Just gotta sit here and wait for the quitlings to die off.

[Tamas]

So this is now resolved minus the poor baby, but the article fails to mention the charges on which they were arrested, although the likely dead kid will serve a good one now that eloping is no longer a thing police should concern itself with:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/feb/28/missing-couple-constance-marten-and-mark-gordon-arrested-search-for-baby-continues

[Gups]

Very pleased about the deal which I see as an inflection point in UK-EU relations. With the UK returning to rationality we can start to repair the relationship. Hopefully Horizon will now be agreed, the current situation is bad for both British and European science (esp Britain of course as the smaller partner).

Me too. It shows how far we've fallen that we can celebrate basic level competence and the willingness of our leadership to negotiate in good faith with our neighbours, but at least we've stopped falling. If the DUP don't like it they can fuck off as far as I'm concerned.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Yes, fingers crossed that Truss was the low point.

[Tamas]

I like this summary: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/feb/27/brexit-done-northern-ireland-protocol-sunak

Getting Brexit done. Again. We've been here before. Theresa May thought she had a solution to Northern Ireland with the Chequers agreement. That lasted only a few days. Boris Johnson had the lie of the "oven-ready" protocol. That was enough to win him a general election – mainly because the Tories were so desperate they were prepared to sign up to any old fantasy – but fell apart soon afterwards when people bothered to look at the detail.

Now we have Rishi Sunak's Windsor framework. To fix the Boris nonsense. The likeliest contender yet. Not least because everyone is so fed up with Brexit – no one wants reminding of what a disaster it has been – that even the hardest of hardliners can't be bothered to oppose it.

Jacob Rees-Mogg and David Frost broke the habit of a lifetime by not publicly rubbishing the deal. The Democratic Unionist party said it would need time to read the detail. Boris Johnson could feel his support ebbing away from him. Only Nadine Dorries was prepared to openly voice her outright opposition. So sweet. She will do anything for her Bozza Bear.

Shortly after 2.30pm on Monday, the government announced that a deal had been done. Which was odd, as we all knew that a deal had actually been done a couple of weeks ago, only for everything to be put on hold as No 10 worked out the best way to choreograph events in a way that would stop the shit-baggers from trashing the deal immediately.

If it could survive unscathed till Tuesday morning, it would be a result. By then the headlines would be in, the deal alive and everyone wanting to move on. Anything but Brexit. If the DUP and the European Research Group of Tory Brexiters chose to trash it thereafter, then they would be on their own. Wreckers out to spoil everyone's fun. Or if not fun, then absence of pain. As close to fun as Brexit gets.

An hour later, Sunak and the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, appeared at a press conference in the Windsor Guildhall. Rish! tried to look surprised. It was a real coincidence that they were in a wood-panelled room, decked out with portraits of various kings and queens. Symbolism with which to batter the DUP.

Rish! got things under way, struggling to make himself visible behind the lectern. A box might have helped. His deal was hereafter to be known as the Windsor framework. The framework was to be a new way forward. Well, not that new, as much of what he had to say had been leaked weeks before. There would be a green lane for goods coming from the UK mainland to Northern Ireland. And a red lane for goods destined for the Republic.

"The same foods will be on sale on supermarket shelves in Northern Ireland as in the rest of the UK," Rish! declared triumphantly. Er. That would be nothing, then. Most supermarket shelves in the UK happen to be empty at the moment. Our very own Brexit dividend. Much more of this and even the DUP might think about rejoining the single market. At least that way, no one in Northern Ireland would go hungry. Just a thought.

What was new was the Stormont brake. This would allow Northern Ireland to veto any EU laws it didn't like. Except it would probably never happen. Here was the brilliance! First of all, the DUP would have to reconstitute the Stormont assembly for the Stormont brake to be viable. Then the DUP would have to find another five assembly members from other parties who were as mad as they were.


That might be tricky. And even if this were to happen, it would still need the prime minister to sign off the brake. Guess what! Rish! had promised Ursula he would never do it. Guess what, again! When he was gone in a year or so, Keir Starmer would never apply the brake, either. So it was all an illusion. Schrödinger's Brexit, yet again. Fantasy heaped on fantasy. It was also about the only sensible piece of politicking the government had done in the last eight years.

Next up was Von der Leyen. She didn't want to piss on Sunak's parade by going on about EU law still applying in some areas – she was far too excited about meeting the king. That wound would open soon enough. So she restricted her remarks to a few pleasantries. She loved Windsor. It was so historic. And, by the way, the only reason she had been willing to make any deal with the UK was because she was no longer having to deal with that untrustworthy scumbag. Boris could do one, as far she was concerned. Rish! nodded involuntarily.

After just a few questions, Sunak and VDL parted company. Job done. The commission's president could get on with her awayday break and Rish! could see how his deal landed during his statement to the house. He needn't have worried. Tory MPs from all sides of the party cheered and waved their order papers as he entered the chamber. Consensus had broken out. It had all been the fault of the Convict that the Windsor framework had needed to be negotiated. They couldn't believe they had allowed themselves to be duped by such an obvious fraudster. It was time for year zero. This was a new start. The past was another country.

Even the DUP weren't going to trash the framework. Not yet, anyway. Rather, Jeffrey Donaldson said he would think things over. He recognised he had been backed into a corner. All the alternative options were spectacularly worse. Maybe it was time to finally say yes. As for Boris, he was nowhere to be seen. There was to be no comeback. His NI protocol bill was dead in the water. His days were over. Just another Brexit deadbeat.

[mongers]

I like this summary: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/feb/27/brexit-done-northern-ireland-protocol-sunak

Getting Brexit done. Again. We've been here before. Theresa May thought she had a solution to Northern Ireland with the Chequers agreement. That lasted only a few days. Boris Johnson had the lie of the "oven-ready" protocol. That was enough to win him a general election – mainly because the Tories were so desperate they were prepared to sign up to any old fantasy – but fell apart soon afterwards when people bothered to look at the detail.

Now we have Rishi Sunak's Windsor framework. To fix the Boris nonsense. The likeliest contender yet. Not least because everyone is so fed up with Brexit – no one wants reminding of what a disaster it has been – that even the hardest of hardliners can't be bothered to oppose it.
.....

I'm surprised Liz Truss also didn't think she had gotten Brexit done?

Though maybe in her mind she does believe she did that and solved many of the world's problems too.

[Sheilbh]

Tell me you're a Westminster based writer without saying it

The Stormont brake is based on the petition of concern mechanism in the Good Friday Agreement. I think it's a really clever and sensible solution that, in my view, should address unionist concern around cross-community consent and democratic legitimacy of laws. It's a very good idea that it's only available if Stormont is sitting which creates the incentive for the unionists to get the institutions running again.

But when Stormont is sitting the petition of concern is used over 100 times a term. It's slightly weird seeing it pop up here (though I think it's very clever and works as a solution) because there had been talk in Northern Ireland of the need to finesse it down as it was becoming part of day-to-day politics in Northern Ireland rather than a way for one community or other to wave a red flag. They have gone within Stormont's politics from a distress signal for a community to a very common tool used by a minority within Stormont to block things (and both sides do it very regularly). There were proposals - not least from Alliance who welcome this deal - to limit the use of petitions of concern to issues directly relating to the GFA/community relations.

It may be that everyone in Westminster and Brussels has the same understanding as Crace but 30 is a low number in an assembly of 90 members. It is basically the DUP+some of the UUP, or Sinn Fein+some SDLP MLAs. That's how it works - it's big enough can't simply be a partisan mechanism small enough that either community can trigger it if there is genuine opposition across the political parties in that community (as in the case of the NIP).

It also isn't for Sunak or any PM to sign-off. The objecting MLAs must provide an explanation of why it is effectively legally valid - if they do then the UK government "will notify" the EU. There is a bit of wiggle room around the UK government accepting that the legal conditions are met and that there's a satisfactory explanation - but it's not discretionary.

The positive bit is that the EU doesn't often regulate in the sort of areas that tend to get petitions of concern - like Irish language classes or abortion. And the other side is that it is used a lot but it is used (at least in the GFA form) on a provision/amendment basis - so of those over 100 uses over a term very often the vast majority of them will relate to one or two pieces of legislation as both sides use it as a veto right over specific provisions/amendments.

The more I've read the more impressive it seems though. I think it's a very good deal and the Stormont brake in particular is really positive. On the customs, red lanes/green lanes stuff we are at the solution Enda Kenny's Europe advisor was discussing in July 2016 and what Theresa May's team proposed. But the consent piece is, from what I've seen, totally new. Given how petitions of concern have been used in Northern Irish politics, I don't think it "solves" Northern Ireland from a post-Brexit UK or EU perspective - but it gets both parties involved in managing Northern Ireland to ensure they're not always just one accident away from crisis (I wonder if VDL remembers the vaccine accident as an example).

I still think the DUP will abstain but I think the politics within unionism will go to re-opening the institutions or not rather than rallying around opposition to the Protocol. I think that it's not a no is probably going to be enough. This seems to have everything to form a new de facto basis for politics to operate in Northern Ireland.

[Grey Fox]

I know someone who works for them. Its interesting how cobbled together the actual organisation is. Quite amazing they're able to get all these big global players showing up.

I think its clear anyone who believes some group is micro-managing the world has not worked for any organisation of mid-size or above (certainly not at a level of having at least the slightest overview of it, otherwise they'd realise how impossible that is.

You would think so but I have coworkers who think the WEF, aka the Cabal controls everything, and we work for a giant American company.

[Sheilbh]

Nice clip of Betty Boothroyd talking about brexit a few years back :

https://twitter.com/i/status/1630226405593174019

Robert Saunders has been posting bits from her memoir about her time in the (then not elected) European Parliament. It's interesting because she was very pro-European but really didn't like it, while John Prescott who'd campaigned for out in 1976 came to really embrace it.

Apparently she commented that Prescott found European politics like trade union politics and enjoyed that culture of coalition-building and horse trading/deal making, while she missed the theatre and spontaneity of being an MP in Westminster (for example, interruptions caused panic among the translators trying to keep order and jokes also didn't work because of the translation issue). Which makes sense given her later career as Speaker (and, clearly, as Baroness Boothroyd ).