Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

Started by Josquius, February 20, 2016, 07:46:34 AM

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How would you vote on Britain remaining in the EU?

British- Remain
12 (12%)
British - Leave
7 (7%)
Other European - Remain
21 (21%)
Other European - Leave
6 (6%)
ROTW - Remain
34 (34%)
ROTW - Leave
20 (20%)

Total Members Voted: 98

Sheilbh

Quote from: crazy canuck on July 28, 2022, 12:45:30 PMThat is problem is ubiquitous.  The political class like making the climate friendly declarations - but very little is being done to actually make it so.
Not the issues in the UK's failure to build infrastructure but the slightly more urgent question right now is that my understanding is there literally isn't enough copper in the earth for us to electrify as much as we'd need to for the energy transition. Given that the new left leaders in Latin American countries (and particularly Chile) are really anti-extraction as a basis of growth - don't quite know what the answer is to that :ph34r:
Let's bomb Russia!

crazy canuck

I have not heard that.  The availability of copper is a fluid calculation based on the mine life of the sites where it is currently being mined and the potential of finding new mine sites.  Mine life and the viability of new sites is, to a large extent, driven by price. 

As one anecdote which helps make the point, in the 90s I did work for a copper mine located in BC which had a brief mine life (something less than 10 years) based on the sampling they had done at the site.  The ore was available beyond that 10 year estimate but in lower concentrations and so not profitable to mine.  Then the commodity price increased and the mining operation expanded both in terms of mining in areas previously thought to be unprofitable and also on new exploration projects for the area.  With that new exploration they also found a new vein of fairly rich copper deposits.  The mine is still in operation and I think the last estimate was a mine life of another 20+ years.

In any event, there is a lot of work being done on alternative methods to deliver electricity - including developing Tesla's idea of wireless transfer.

Sheilbh

Quote from: crazy canuck on July 28, 2022, 01:56:29 PMIn any event, there is a lot of work being done on alternative methods to deliver electricity - including developing Tesla's idea of wireless transfer.
Yes it's a really important area where we need innovation and should just be plowing money into projects.

But I wonder, given the material needs for electricity (transmission and storage), chips etc, if the 21st century's going to be as driven by access to mineral resources in the same way that energy had such a huge role shaping the 20th.
Let's bomb Russia!

Josquius

More than just copper other raw materials are the problems I hear. Eg

https://atfpro.co.uk/not-enough-raw-materials-to-match-ev-growth/


Quoteto meet UK electric car targets for 2050, we would need to produce just under two times the current total annual world cobalt production, nearly the entire world production of neodymium, three quarters of the world's lithium production and at least half of the world's copper production.

100% true supply and demand and if the price goes up and technology advances viability of reserves increases but this does have a limit.
Interestingly I have noticed right wing online electric car fanboys are a rising thing. The sort who think the world can stay as it is but one for one swapping ice for eV. Which... Well. It beats climate change deniers.
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crazy canuck

Quote from: Josquius on July 28, 2022, 02:16:05 PMMore than just copper other raw materials are the problems I hear. Eg

https://atfpro.co.uk/not-enough-raw-materials-to-match-ev-growth/


Quoteto meet UK electric car targets for 2050, we would need to produce just under two times the current total annual world cobalt production, nearly the entire world production of neodymium, three quarters of the world's lithium production and at least half of the world's copper production.

100% true supply and demand and if the price goes up and technology advances viability of reserves increases but this does have a limit.
Interestingly I have noticed right wing online electric car fanboys are a rising thing. The sort who think the world can stay as it is but one for one swapping ice for eV. Which... Well. It beats climate change deniers.

What limit is there?

The Minsky Moment

Quote from: Sheilbh on July 28, 2022, 01:03:02 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 28, 2022, 12:49:12 PMI don't know what you mean by "the 50% input from corporate profits..."
The same point as wages currently constituting 10% of inflation - the same analysis found that over 50% of the input is from profit-taking (and non-labour costs are obviously high). But those proportions are basically the reverse of the seventies.

But what is the basis for that analysis?

Take: https://www.epi.org/blog/corporate-profits-have-contributed-disproportionately-to-inflation-how-should-policymakers-respond/

The analysis is based on Table 1.15 of the BEA National Income Accounts, which deconstructs elements of the GDP implicit price deflator.   What they did is take the total change in the price per unit for real gross value added from the 2nd quarter of 2020 to the 4th quarter of 2021.  It then breaks down that total change by various sub-components.

The problem is that this kind of analysis is EXTREMELY sensitive to the chosen end points, which in this case appear to have been selected to drive the result.

For example, let's take compare the last reported quarter - Q1 of 2022 - to the prior year quarter Q1 of 2021, arguably a more "natural" selection of beginning and end points.  The results are very different: labor costs now account for over 50% of the change in the implicit price deflator, corporate profits only 16%.

My conclusions:
+ There is lots of variation and noise in this kind of quarterly data rendering it not useful in this kind of analysis, especially without testing sensitivity to endpoint selection
+ This kind of data is generally problematic to use on its own to draw causal conclusions
+ I don't really know exactly why inflation is increasing now and I don't think anyone else does either.  Maybe 5-10 years from now we'll have better insight.
+ In an inflationary environment, failing to allow wages to rise will cause real decreases in the standard of living for working people; on the other hand allow wages to rise to accommodate the price level increase can validate and sustain inflationary expectations going forward.
+ Personally I find it offensive to force the less wealthy strata to bear the principal brunt of inflationary adjustment pain.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

Josquius

Quote from: crazy canuck on July 28, 2022, 02:29:14 PM
Quote from: Josquius on July 28, 2022, 02:16:05 PMMore than just copper other raw materials are the problems I hear. Eg

https://atfpro.co.uk/not-enough-raw-materials-to-match-ev-growth/


Quoteto meet UK electric car targets for 2050, we would need to produce just under two times the current total annual world cobalt production, nearly the entire world production of neodymium, three quarters of the world's lithium production and at least half of the world's copper production.

100% true supply and demand and if the price goes up and technology advances viability of reserves increases but this does have a limit.
Interestingly I have noticed right wing online electric car fanboys are a rising thing. The sort who think the world can stay as it is but one for one swapping ice for eV. Which... Well. It beats climate change deniers.

What limit is there?

There is an absolute limit. These materials are finite on earth/in the solar system.
Then there are limits where the cost is so great that anyrhing else looks better.
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Sheilbh

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on July 28, 2022, 02:33:57 PMMy conclusions:
+ There is lots of variation and noise in this kind of quarterly data rendering it not useful in this kind of analysis, especially without testing sensitivity to endpoint selection
+ This kind of data is generally problematic to use on its own to draw causal conclusions
+ I don't really know exactly why inflation is increasing now and I don't think anyone else does either.  Maybe 5-10 years from now we'll have better insight.
+ In an inflationary environment, failing to allow wages to rise will cause real decreases in the standard of living for working people; on the other hand allow wages to rise to accommodate the price level increase can validate and sustain inflationary expectations going forward.
+ Personally I find it offensive to force the less wealthy strata to bear the principal brunt of inflationary adjustment pain.
I agree with all of this and it's the problem for all policy ultimately. There are many causes of differing importance that is impossible to assess in the moment - but that's the job of policy makers. There is also regional variation - I'm not sure about the US but in the UK and EU real wages have been more or less flat or falling for an extended period which makes increases the impact of inflation now. Given that context here, wages have not (and so far generally aren't) driving inflation.

The only other points I'd add are that the political context of the economy is fundamentally different than in the mid-20th century in the democratic world. The lack of union density and power is, I think, a key factor in why it seems unlikely that there is a risk of a wage-price spiral and wages sustaining inflationary expectations - because I do not think the political structure exists for that to happen. I think power and structures matter and I don't see them to sustain wage increases. If it were to shift (and I think that would be a good thing) then you might look at different policies.

It is also clear that non-labour input costs are higher and again I think that's distributed differently regionally. In the US I think it is more of general supply issues and inflation, I think in mainland Europe it's more energy plus some supply issues, I think in the UK we're in between and it's probably 50/50 (because we're less exposed on Russian energy, but also - partly because we're not in the EU - more exposed on supply shortages, plus there's probably been a delayed Brexit inflationary shock). Again I think that points to slightly different problems and possible policies - in my view its less likely in the UK and Europe that wage rises would embed because I think it's more shocks here and less embedded inflation in supply chains.

QuoteThe problem is that this kind of analysis is EXTREMELY sensitive to the chosen end points, which in this case appear to have been selected to drive the result.

For example, let's take compare the last reported quarter - Q1 of 2022 - to the prior year quarter Q1 of 2021, arguably a more "natural" selection of beginning and end points.  The results are very different: labor costs now account for over 50% of the change in the implicit price deflator, corporate profits only 16%.
Or from when it was written in April? It looks like a point when you'd be likely to have good data for Q4 but only a first release for Q1 (although in the US the early release might be good - in the UK economic data can get revised by quite a bit).
Let's bomb Russia!

crazy canuck

Quote from: Josquius on July 28, 2022, 02:38:57 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on July 28, 2022, 02:29:14 PM
Quote from: Josquius on July 28, 2022, 02:16:05 PMMore than just copper other raw materials are the problems I hear. Eg

https://atfpro.co.uk/not-enough-raw-materials-to-match-ev-growth/


Quoteto meet UK electric car targets for 2050, we would need to produce just under two times the current total annual world cobalt production, nearly the entire world production of neodymium, three quarters of the world's lithium production and at least half of the world's copper production.

100% true supply and demand and if the price goes up and technology advances viability of reserves increases but this does have a limit.
Interestingly I have noticed right wing online electric car fanboys are a rising thing. The sort who think the world can stay as it is but one for one swapping ice for eV. Which... Well. It beats climate change deniers.

What limit is there?

There is an absolute limit. These materials are finite on earth/in the solar system.
Then there are limits where the cost is so great that anyrhing else looks better.

Sure, but the question is whether the finite amount is more than what is required.

Sheilbh

Quote from: crazy canuck on July 28, 2022, 03:26:08 PMSure, but the question is whether the finite amount is more than what is required.
Although there's also a question of whether it can be mined in a way that is economical and - particularly given the political shift in Latin America against extraction - can it be extracted in a way that doesn't destroy the local environment and benefits local communities.

The record on this isn't great which is exactly why Latin American countries (on the left) are now wanting to try and get away from mining/extraction based economies. Again the example of the DRC and its minerals is another example that we're not there - and I'm not sure how we get there.
Let's bomb Russia!

Josquius

#21460
Quote from: crazy canuck on July 28, 2022, 03:26:08 PM
Quote from: Josquius on July 28, 2022, 02:38:57 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on July 28, 2022, 02:29:14 PM
Quote from: Josquius on July 28, 2022, 02:16:05 PMMore than just copper other raw materials are the problems I hear. Eg

https://atfpro.co.uk/not-enough-raw-materials-to-match-ev-growth/


Quoteto meet UK electric car targets for 2050, we would need to produce just under two times the current total annual world cobalt production, nearly the entire world production of neodymium, three quarters of the world's lithium production and at least half of the world's copper production.

100% true supply and demand and if the price goes up and technology advances viability of reserves increases but this does have a limit.
Interestingly I have noticed right wing online electric car fanboys are a rising thing. The sort who think the world can stay as it is but one for one swapping ice for eV. Which... Well. It beats climate change deniers.

What limit is there?

There is an absolute limit. These materials are finite on earth/in the solar system.
Then there are limits where the cost is so great that anyrhing else looks better.

Sure, but the question is whether the finite amount is more than what is required.

The link I posted suggests no.
So much dependant on better mining and less resource intensive technology. Or just accepting everything is much more expensive so more can be mined.
Though given the required numbers the I've read the gap seems too huge to be bridged.
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Sheilbh

#21461
Interesting - Ben Wallace endorses Truss :hmm:

On the one hand perhaps not a surprise given the concerns around Sunak over national security and foreign policy issues, as well as the reports that Wallace and Sunak repeatedly clashed over defence spending. Similarly Wallace is quite close to Johnson. On the other it's a serious endorsement for Truss from the "non-lunatic" wing of the party which is slightly striking.

I'd add that I saw Truss committed to the Northern Powerhouse Rail ("in full") which was largely shelved/not funded by Sunak at the Treasury which was swinging me to thinking she might be the better option, as well as the issues with Sunak. But this adds a little more to that. I think Truss might try to do something, while I get the sense (based on his time in Treasury which is a little unfair) that Sunak will mainly try to stop things.

From a Tory perspective I think chances are either loses the next election but I feel like with Sunak they get a solid 250 seats or so - bad but not catastrophic. With Truss I think the range is from them winning the next election to a historic wipe out :ph34r:

Edit: And it seems a little brutal - he apparently attacked Sunak for resigning in a crisis, has a go at his overly slick "Hollywood" campaign ("Liz is a winner not because she's a slick salesperson but because she's authentic"). He also says that Johnson had to overrule Sunak on defence spending which Sunak is now claiming credit for (Johnson "intervened, overruled and insisted that defence got a multi-year settlement").
Let's bomb Russia!

Richard Hakluyt

I'm not at all impressed with Sunak...he would be the guaranteed fail I think.

But Truss...there is still that concern that she is a complete lightweight nutter  :lol:

Perhaps I am being old-fashioned but I also don't like non-doms and holders of green cards etc being government ministers. It displays a lack of comitment to the country. Whatever achievments or failures ministers are responsible for they should live with rather than swanning off to a preferred alternative country...glares at Clegg.

Josquius

#21463
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on July 29, 2022, 12:02:35 AMI'm not at all impressed with Sunak...he would be the guaranteed fail I think.

But Truss...there is still that concern that she is a complete lightweight nutter  :lol:

Perhaps I am being old-fashioned but I also don't like non-doms and holders of green cards etc being government ministers. It displays a lack of comitment to the country. Whatever achievments or failures ministers are responsible for they should live with rather than swanning off to a preferred alternative country...glares at Clegg.


Brits abroad should have their own MPs.
With blackjack and hookers.
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Admiral Yi