Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

I wouldn't say we are behind America on race at all. Rather we are on a completely different path. The parallels between the two are loose at best.

I think our discourse on race is incredibly influenced by the US - as is probably everywhere in the world, but certainly English speaking countries. I think it's really hard to over-state the influence of American activism and academic research. It seems to me that is more developed in the US and what happens there we normally follow. We may be on different paths but the way we understand those paths, the language we use to describe them, the issues that are highlighted are overwhelming sourced from the US.

It is a huge polarising issue in the US and the US polarises on everything to an extent that the UK doesn't - we're a smaller country, there is far more of a broad middle of opinion here than in the US. So I think the US tends to have the most progressive and reactionary response to issues at the same time in a way that is far more muted here. But in general I think the centre of opinion (to the extent that exists in the US) if further alont on race than we are by some distance. It's like gay rights the broad middle in the UK was further along than in the US - but it was also more consensus-driven, more gradual (e.g. civil unions). While the activists in the US were pushing for marriage equality with an equally strong reaction - it was more of a fight but contained both more progressive and more reactionary elements than here which I think pushes the US further and generally faster on many issues than the UK.

One thing that I have seen annoying far right people (albeit for disingenuous reasons in their case) and I can kind of see their point is how much the UK puts such a focus on black people when speaking about minorities and ignores Asians, especially Pakistanis, unless it's something negative. This is an area where our London centrism really shines.

They are absolutely right - I don't think it's London-centric as much as it is, again, a reflection of that American influence. There isn't enough yet about the British Indian, Pakistani or Bangladeshi experience and perspective - which is really essential because they are by far the largest non-white communities in the UK (I think latest estimates are almost 10%).

But again this is what I mean by thinking we're behind the US - I think in the US there is more developed writing and thinking about Asian-Americans, Hispanic Americans etc as well as African-Americans. We are behind the curve on that but I think it will come and it will be really important especially because there are, again, going to be big differences within and between communities so even the "British Asian" doesn't really tell us much either.

[Sheilbh]

And yet more sexual assault and harassment claims. I don't know how much of this is because there are now more channels for reporting and the continuing impact of me too - and that it has sadly always been like this but not reported. Or if there's something particularly grim about this parliament/recent MPs.

The proposing a threesome and being rebuffed seems fine to me and not really a story. A guy going around using date rape drugs on others is not:

Exclusive: Top Tory MP faces drink spiking claims as victim 'woke up to find nipples being licked'
It is claimed the man used the substance on a fellow Conservative MP, who awoke to find his nipples being licked. It is also said a Labour MP was abused after the man administered the drug to him
By Nigel NelsonPolitical Editor
    21:21, 21 May 2022

A senior Tory MP is caught up in allegations swirling around Westminster that he plied four victims with date-rape drugs.

It is claimed the man used the substance on a fellow Conservative MP, who awoke to find his nipples being licked.

It is also said a Labour MP was abused after the man administered the drug to him – while the flatmate of another Tory MP claimed to friends he had a similar experience.

A fourth man also claimed he had rebuffed his advances, and had suspicions his drink was spiked.

A source said: "The name of this alleged attacker is being spoken about openly among Conservative MPs.

"If he is innocent, he should refer himself to police and our internal complaints procedure so allegations can be investigated to clear his name."

Another MP said: "No wonder he has been looking so dreadful recently with this hanging over him."

Allegations an MP had used a date-rape drug first arose in the sexual harassment scandal in 2017.

Pals of the Labour MP say the incident was blown out of proportion and no complaint was made.

Two Tory MPs have also been accused of proposing a threesome to a minister's girlfriend, which she refused.

The latest claims were being talked about last week in Commons bars and coffee shops after an unnamed Tory MP was arrested and bailed last week.

The Met Police is probing allegations of rape, indecent assault, sexual assault, abuse of a position of trust and misconduct in public office between 2002 and 2009.

The man has been told to stay away from the Commons but Labour wants the Tory whip removed, which would identify him.

One of his ex-staffers said: "I don't think he would or could have done what is being claimed."

Other MPs reacted with dismay that the unnamed man could be caught up in a sex scandal.

Some 56 MPs have been investigated for inappropriate behaviour since 2018.

A Government spokesman said: "We take all allegations seriously."

[Jacob]

That's messed up.

[Sheilbh]

Fairly grim looking show by Channel 4 on abuse MPs receive:
https://twitter.com/c4dispatches/status/1528377641618681856?s=21&t=VRqRq7lFTHrdpDFPiB476A

Comments under this about as crap as you'd expect - lots of whataboutery from Corbyn supporters (the female Labour MPs interviewed were mainly on the anti-Corbyn side) and explanations of why Tory MPs are literal murderers

[Grey Fox]

I google it but it was of no use.

How does one ply victims with something? 

[Josquius]

Fairly grim looking show by Channel 4 on abuse MPs receive:
https://twitter.com/c4dispatches/status/1528377641618681856?s=21&t=VRqRq7lFTHrdpDFPiB476A

Comments under this about as crap as you'd expect - lots of whataboutery from Corbyn supporters (the female Labour MPs interviewed were mainly on the anti-Corbyn side) and explanations of why Tory MPs are literal murderers

Have to say it's a weird collections of quotes there, from you don't know what youre talking about, a very legitimate criticism of most tories, through to die you bitch.

[Sheilbh]

I google it but it was of no use.

How does one ply victims with something? 

It means to give or offer someone something - normally it means in excess. Your nan is likely to ply you with questions and cake.

In less wholesome contexts you might get plied with drink or drugs by someone who's dodgy/trying to get you drunk.

Have to say it's a weird collections of quotes there, from you don't know what youre talking about, a very legitimate criticism of most tories, through to die you bitch.

To be honest I think this is part of the problem. You know the Tory MPs in that clip getting abuse went from: "just shut up bitch", "you're a murderer", "you're Tory scum", "you don't know what you're talking about", "pipe down bitch". The MPs talking about not a week going by without things being notified to the police, a woman MP getting comments on her figure, death threats and the example of an MP having two police on her front door, two on her back door and two in her living room while searching for a man (who was 200m away) are also all Tories.

Of those, I think "you don't know what you're talking about" is acceptable. The others aren't acceptable - even to Tory MPs.

I've always had a real issue with the "Tories are literally murderers" line, because it's the "what are you giving yourself permission to do" thing. If you're genuinely saying and you genuinely believe that they're murderers then there's almost no measure that isn't justifiable to stop them, which I think is dangerous.

[Sheilbh]

Even ahead of the Gray report - which apparently includes pictures - pictures have started to come out:

Paul Brand
@PaulBrandITV
EXCL: @ITVNews has obtained pictures of Boris Johnson drinking at a No10 party during lockdown in November 2020.

The photos cast fresh doubt on the PM's repeated claims he was unaware of rule-breaking in No10 during the pandemic.

See all images here:
https://www.itv.com/news/2022-05-23/exclusive-pm-pictured-drinking-at-downing-street-party-during-lockdown

At the time of the photos only 2 people were allowed to meet indoors - it was the second full lockdown.

Boris Johnson told Parliament on 1st Dec 2021, "all guidance was followed completely in No 10."

Questions now are:
1) did he mislead MPs?
2) Why didn't police fine him?
We don't know for certain whether or not police and Sue Gray had these pictures of what one source has dubbed 'fizzgate'.

In theory we find out re Sue Gray this week. We have asked Met to clarify, but they have given little comment on the detail of their investigation thus far.
In response, Labour's @AngelaRayner said:

"Boris Johnson said repeatedly that he knew nothing about law-breaking – there's no doubt now, he lied. Boris Johnson made the rules, and then broke them.

"The Prime Minister has demeaned his office. The British people deserve better."
And @LibDems: "It's becoming clearer than ever that Boris Johnson lied to the British people and to Parliament. Conservative MPs must do their duty and sack this law-breaking Prime Minister. Every day he remains in office will do more damage to public trust and to our democracy."

Separately Cummings has named another party:

Some people told the police (but not Sue Gray, because they did not want the PM to read their evidence) that they had evidence regarding the organisation of illegal events from the flat. E.g apart from the 'cake ambush' there was a separate birthday party, uncovered by the media so far I think, that evening (which almost nobody knew about at the time, including me). There is a paper trail including WhatsApps from the flat. Sounds very bad for Boris/Carrie right? Surely that must be investigated? No! The police simply ignored it. Simple! PM cleared!

He's also said that regardless of what's in the Gray report photos will leak in the next 24-48 hours (it took less than 6) because junior staffers are really pissed off that they've been fined for multiple parties that Johnson went to but only received one fine for.

As I say any idea this ended with the Met finishing up is not right and it's going to keep going until Tory MPs get rid of him, which is why I still think they probably will.

Separately I bet the Acting Commissioner is looking forward to testifying to the London Assembly policing committee on Thursday morning when he'll have to explain why the Met didn't issue a fine for (at least) this event

Edit: And the Lib Dems have submitted a letter to the Independent Office for Police Conduct (which investigates police forces) complaining about the Met's handling of this and calling for an investigation into the investigation

We are rapidly approaching the situation where there was an inquiry into why the Edinburgh tram was over-budget and late, but the inquiry itself was over-budget is late and there's now an inquiry into the inquiry.

[garbon]

What a shambles

[Richard Hakluyt]

So, using Johnson standards, it turns out that our various languish meets over the years were extremely hard-working events 

[The Larch]

I don't think anyone can be really surprised, right?

[Richard Hakluyt]

I don't think anyone is surprised.

But the tories are still on 34% or so.

[Josquius]

I don't think anyone is surprised.

But the tories are still on 34% or so.

Yeah but woke something something communist bankrupt the country and the council with the bins and blues forever and yeah what.

[Sheilbh]

I don't think anyone can be really surprised, right?

It's not a surprise.

But Johnson loyalists were doing vitctory laps about how he'd only got one fine and the Met had closed their investigation so everything would move on. I didn't think that was true then and I still don't. There's lots more on this story and will keep coming.

My view is still that it ends Johnson - it's just a question of when Tory MPs realise it. Because the stories are going to keep coming, as are the pictures etc. It won't end until he's gone - not least because people are not surprised but still furious about this. People have made up their mind about this - the next twist such as it is, is that this story is starting to get tangled up with cost of living in people's responses.

The public made up their mind on this in mid-January and haven't changed. Johnson's interests are no longer the same as the Tory party's and it's just a question of whether Tory backbenchers realise and act in time, or if the next two years are going to be like 2008-10 for Labour under Brown. None of this is going to be a surprise. It's just going to keep hammering at the public's anger and their decision which they've already made.

But the tories are still on 34% or so.

That's the highest they've been on recently - they're basically low thirties (which is the level they were at in 97-2005) and Labour's basically around 40%.

In the height of New Labour I remember the assumption being that the Tory floor was about 30%. For Labour, Foot got about 28% and in 2019 Corbyn got about 32% so I think their floor is probably around 30% too. It'll be interesting to see, as more photos come out and the Gray report is published etc, if the Tory numbers go below the floor because I think that will cause absolute panic among backbenchers.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I am disappointed that tory support is not even lower. This is the most disgraceful government we have had in my lifetime, by far.

For the future I am hoping for electoral reform. I would like this to be the last government with a huge majority that is essentially a faction within a party that only got 43% of the total votes cast.