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Whither Trump?

Started by Jacob, December 07, 2015, 07:31:19 PM

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Come the 2016 Presidential Elections in the US, where will Trump be?

Presidential Candidate for the Republican Party
18 (40.9%)
Presidential Candidate in an Independent/ Third Party run?
9 (20.5%)
Not a presidential candidate at all.
16 (36.4%)
Some other scenario...
1 (2.3%)

Total Members Voted: 44

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11B4V

#120
December 11, 2015, 10:37:55 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 11, 2015, 05:13:03 PM
500 bucks that Trump is not President elect this time next year.  Any takers?

Put up or shut up Siege.
"there's a long tradition of insulting people we disagree with here, and I'll be damned if I listen to your entreaties otherwise."-OVB

"Obviously not a Berkut-commanded armored column.  They're not all brewing."- CdM

"We've reached one of our phase lines after the firefight and it smells bad—meaning it's a little bit suspicious... Could be an amb—".

garbon

#122
December 12, 2015, 04:11:40 AM
Quote from: DGuller on December 11, 2015, 10:35:54 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 11, 2015, 05:45:21 PM
Well, yeah, only the idle rich or the completely mad would take that bet.  The point is to suss out Siege who is all talk.
:yes: Bets talk, bullshit walks.  It's amazing how even nominal bet amounts can stop bullshitters dead in their tracks.

On the other hand, someone simply not want to join the languish gambling syndicate.
"I've never been quite sure what the point of a eunuch is, if truth be told. It seems to me they're only men with the useful bits cut off."

I drank because I wanted to drown my sorrows, but now the damned things have learned to swim.

DGuller

#123
December 12, 2015, 04:26:28 AM
Quote from: garbon on December 12, 2015, 04:11:40 AM
Quote from: DGuller on December 11, 2015, 10:35:54 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 11, 2015, 05:45:21 PM
Well, yeah, only the idle rich or the completely mad would take that bet.  The point is to suss out Siege who is all talk.
:yes: Bets talk, bullshit walks.  It's amazing how even nominal bet amounts can stop bullshitters dead in their tracks.

On the other hand, someone simply not want to join the languish gambling syndicate.
I already mentioned bullshit.

garbon

#124
December 12, 2015, 04:42:39 AM
That's not bullshit though. Not everyone enjoys gambling.
"I've never been quite sure what the point of a eunuch is, if truth be told. It seems to me they're only men with the useful bits cut off."

I drank because I wanted to drown my sorrows, but now the damned things have learned to swim.

Eddie Teach

#125
December 12, 2015, 05:13:39 AM
Not to mention, having to give someone online your address.
To sleep, perchance to dream. But in that sleep of death, what dreams may come?

Tonitrus

#126
December 12, 2015, 06:12:38 AM
I agree, the whole "Wanna bet?" is juvenile.  Of all places, I'd think us Languishites would simply be satisified with the smug haughtiness of being right.  :P

jimmy olsen

#127
December 12, 2015, 06:20:14 AM
Quote from: Syt on December 09, 2015, 08:19:49 AM
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/12/trump-may-have-more-support-than-we-think/419370/?utm_source=SFFB

QuoteThe Polls May Be Underestimating Trump's Support

Donald Trump's persistent lead in the GOP presidential-preference polls has been a great source of confusion for the chattering classes. But Trump is actually just the latest manifestation of a more global trend: Data suggests the appeal of anti-immigrant policies to working-class voters is much deeper than most American elites want to believe. And because Trump draws the bulk of his support from less-educated, working- and middle-class voters, he may be positioned to do even better still—for now. Polling data from Europe shows that parties with similar voter profiles to Trump's consistently do better in both online polls and at the ballot box than in live-interview polling. And currently Trump is far ahead online.

Why does this happen? It starts with working-class voters across developed countries being under severe economic pressure because of competition with foreigners at home (immigration) and abroad (EU/trade). They respond to people and parties who tell them this state of affairs isn't inevitable, and they are often impervious to cries of racism. Their lives are just plain harder than they used to be and working-class voters don't see elites doing much—or wanting to do much—to make them better. Donald Trump is simply the American version of Nigel Farage, Geert Wilders, and many other European leaders of working-class, anti-immigrant parties who profit from stoking the flames of resentment because there is so much kindling available to light.

So what explains the chasm between these particular candidates' online versus live polling data? It turns out that a nontrivial share of these same working-class, anti-immigrant voters won't tell a live person who they support but will share their true feelings when their support is secret—like on Election Day. This is no surprise: Support for immigration and globalization are perhaps the only political sentiments that unite elites from both business and the academy, from right and left. Openly supporting an anti-immigration candidate can risk social opprobrium, ridicule, or worse. In other words, for every group of vocal Trump supporters, there are probably a lot more who just don't advertise it.


We better hope this is wrong, because if Trump sustains recent gains he's going to romp to the nomination. For a long time Trump was averaging in the high 20s in the live telephone phones and mid 30s in the online polls, but he's now starting to hit the mid 30s in some live polls and the low 40s in online polls. If he's really around 40% nationally he will sweep the early states and become unstoppable.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-gop-primary#!mindate=2015-06-01&estimate=custom
It is far better for the truth to tear my flesh to pieces, then for my soul to wander through darkness in eternal damnation.

Jet: So what kind of woman is she? What's Julia like?
Faye: Ordinary. The kind of beautiful, dangerous ordinary that you just can't leave alone.
Jet: I see.
Faye: Like an angel from the underworld. Or a devil from Paradise.
--------------------------------------------
1 Karma Chameleon point

alfred russel

#128
December 12, 2015, 08:10:20 AM
Quote from: DGuller on December 11, 2015, 10:35:54 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 11, 2015, 05:45:21 PM
Well, yeah, only the idle rich or the completely mad would take that bet.  The point is to suss out Siege who is all talk.
:yes: Bets talk, bullshit walks.  It's amazing how even nominal bet amounts can stop bullshitters dead in their tracks.

It doesn't--in addition to what others have posted, even if Siege is 100% certain Trump will win, is willing to stake his life savings on that knowledge, doesn't mind sending Raz his home address, and is sure Raz will pay up, he would still be stupid to take the bet because he could get much better odds elsewhere.
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

Eddie Teach

#129
December 12, 2015, 08:26:58 AM
He might take Bravo's bet though.
To sleep, perchance to dream. But in that sleep of death, what dreams may come?

Legbiter

#130
December 12, 2015, 09:05:15 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 12, 2015, 06:20:14 AM
We better hope this is wrong, because if Trump sustains recent gains he's going to romp to the nomination. For a long time Trump was averaging in the high 20s in the live telephone phones and mid 30s in the online polls, but he's now starting to hit the mid 30s in some live polls and the low 40s in online polls. If he's really around 40% nationally he will sweep the early states and become unstoppable.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-gop-primary#!mindate=2015-06-01&estimate=custom

Well, the GOP establishment could always run third party. Put Jeb! on the ticket.
Posted using 100% recycled electrons.

HisMajestyBOB

#131
December 12, 2015, 02:15:49 PM
Here's what betting people on PredictIt think about the election:


You can see who I've put money on.  :)
Three lovely Prada points for HoI2 help

11B4V

#132
December 12, 2015, 03:34:58 PM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on December 12, 2015, 05:13:39 AM
Not to mention, having to give someone online your address.

Why would you have to do that?
"there's a long tradition of insulting people we disagree with here, and I'll be damned if I listen to your entreaties otherwise."-OVB

"Obviously not a Berkut-commanded armored column.  They're not all brewing."- CdM

"We've reached one of our phase lines after the firefight and it smells bad—meaning it's a little bit suspicious... Could be an amb—".

PRC

#133
December 12, 2015, 04:18:22 PM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on December 12, 2015, 05:13:39 AM
Not to mention, having to give someone online your address.

You can email money transfers.

11B4V

#134
December 12, 2015, 04:36:04 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on December 12, 2015, 08:10:20 AM
Quote from: DGuller on December 11, 2015, 10:35:54 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 11, 2015, 05:45:21 PM
Well, yeah, only the idle rich or the completely mad would take that bet.  The point is to suss out Siege who is all talk.
:yes: Bets talk, bullshit walks.  It's amazing how even nominal bet amounts can stop bullshitters dead in their tracks.

It doesn't--in addition to what others have posted, even if Siege is 100% certain Trump will win, is willing to stake his life savings on that knowledge, doesn't mind sending Raz his home address, and is sure Raz will pay up, he would still be stupid to take the bet because he could get much better odds elsewhere.

Come into the 21st century.

500 bucks is a life savings bet????? :huh:
"there's a long tradition of insulting people we disagree with here, and I'll be damned if I listen to your entreaties otherwise."-OVB

"Obviously not a Berkut-commanded armored column.  They're not all brewing."- CdM

"We've reached one of our phase lines after the firefight and it smells bad—meaning it's a little bit suspicious... Could be an amb—".
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