Climate Change/Mass Extinction Megathread

[Syt]

The response of the general public to Covid measures has left me rather disillusioned over the fight against climate change, tbh. If a more concrete and direct emergency creates such resistance, then the much larger societal changes scientists and researchers say would be required to combat global warming have no chance.

I try to do the right thing on micro level, but let's be honest. Unless someone comes up with a magic bullet for the problem that makes it go away without inconveniencing people here and now we're screwed.

[Eddie Teach]

Have we considered the possibility future generations might be better off not existing? 

[CountDeMoney]

But knowing that there is a psychological explanation for our lack of emotional investment, we can instead appeal to our intellect to guide our actions.

Thing is, there usually is a psychological explanation when it comes to human behavior;  hell, look at how much fundamental attribution error and other cognitive biases play in so many levels of our political and societal decision-making processes.

[Tamas]

I mean, focusing on short term and ignoring what may or may not happen at some unspecified future time, how can that be classified as a "fault"? Like, I get it, but on an evolutionary scale, where brain-workings would have to be evaluated on, the constant struggle for daily survival has been the norm for lifeforms. It still is for a huge number of humans.

 

[Syt]

I mean, focusing on short term and ignoring what may or may not happen at some unspecified future time, how can that be classified as a "fault"? Like, I get it, but on an evolutionary scale, where brain-workings would have to be evaluated on, the constant struggle for daily survival has been the norm for lifeforms. It still is for a huge number of humans.

I guess the question is then whether we can take the next evolutionary hurdle not just on an individual level, but as a species.

[grumbler]

Have we considered the possibility future generations might be better off not existing? 

According to the USSC, the answer is "no."

[Jacob]

Have we considered the possibility future generations might be better off not existing? 

Yes, and we have rejected the possibility.

[Jacob]

I mean, focusing on short term and ignoring what may or may not happen at some unspecified future time, how can that be classified as a "fault"? Like, I get it, but on an evolutionary scale, where brain-workings would have to be evaluated on, the constant struggle for daily survival has been the norm for lifeforms. It still is for a huge number of humans.

It's not a "fault" in that it has helped us to get where we are and, in aggregate, it helps is as a species navigate a wide range of complex problems more or less successfully.

However, if that quirk leads us to a species extinction then yeah it's probably fair to call it a "fault".

[Eddie Teach]

Have we considered the possibility future generations might be better off not existing? 

Yes, and we have rejected the possibility.

The developed world is reproducing at below replacement, so it seems like an open question.

[Sheilbh]

The response of the general public to Covid measures has left me rather disillusioned over the fight against climate change, tbh. If a more concrete and direct emergency creates such resistance, then the much larger societal changes scientists and researchers say would be required to combat global warming have no chance.

I feel the opposite. There's variations across the world - but in most of Europe, for example, a tiny, vocal minority resisted covid measures and received an insane amount of coverage for it (both because people like shaming each other and because it was current). In this context there are semi-regular Kurdish protests in London that I have never seen covered in the media but I looked up because my bus route went througgh Westminster and Trafalgar square so was blocked by them more than once. No lockdown protest I saw came close to even half of the Kurdish protests every couple of months and I think media representation isn't the same as actually popular support.

It varies globally and particularly by wealth but I find the response to covid and the steps people voluntarily took to make others safe have been generally incredible and miles beyond what anyone thought was possible. I still remember looking at footage from China in January 2020 and thinking those silent streets would be impossible in the West, but I was wrong.

The other side is also what we are capable of as a society when the government basically takes on risk for private companies doing research and also just throws cash at a problem. In the space of a year we had all those vaccines - I don't think there's any reason to think that engineers and researchers are any less capable than the guys behind the covid vaccines. In fact we've seen the opposite that the cost of renewable energy has fallen faster than any projections - and it's got better quicker too.

I try to do the right thing on micro level, but let's be honest. Unless someone comes up with a magic bullet for the problem that makes it go away without inconveniencing people here and now we're screwed.

I don't think the solution is in the billions of micro savings from individuals. There's basically five areas contributors to carbon that are all roughly equal: transport, energy, housing, agriculture and industry. In my view the vast majority of those areas are going to require huge state spending to make any transition. Consumer choices are not going to decarbonise steel or concrete.

For most of them we know what we need to do and can do a lot of it now if we spend the money (especially on energy, housing and transport), there are other bits where there is no answer yet and we need to throw money at it. But the key is a willingness to spend (and to go into debt to do it) - I think the estimate globally is about 3% of GDPR for the next ten years - not the levels of inconvenience individuals have to go through.

I think it's about politics. It's always brought up but it was BP who invented the idea of a "carbon footprint" - and that it's about us as individuals acting in a market, rather than collective action through the state of investment in updating building stock, the grid and energy supplies, funding research in batteries etc. It's a bit like covid itself - I could be wrong - but my guess is if you look around the world at compliance with covid measures the key indicator is more about access to sick pay or furlough schemes etc than individual views.

Separately I also think the war will have an impact - I think the impact in Europe and probably East and South Asia is that it increases the urgency of moving to renewables (because we rely on energy sources from overseas and we're all subject to the market and external shocks). I think in the US - and maybe Australia, Canada and other countries who have loads of fossil fuels - it probably has the opposite effect of increasing the incentive to get more fossil fuels out of the ground (because they can insulate themselves and economically benefit from those shocks).

[The Brain]

I have a hard time seeing environmental problems leading to human extinction.

[Josquius]

Consumer choices do decide who gets into power however.

And recent history has shown there's a lot of opportunity for populist anti logic rhetoric. If the far right latch harder onto climate change it could be very dangerous.

[crazy canuck]

I have a hard time seeing environmental problems leading to human extinction.

Yeah, you need to make the bar that low to not take immediate action.

[crazy canuck]

Consumer choices do decide who gets into power however.

And recent history has shown there's a lot of opportunity for populist anti logic rhetoric. If the far right latch harder onto climate change it could be very dangerous.

Where do they go from denying climate change exists that would make things more dangerous?  Actively trying to increase the production of greenhouse gases I suppose?

[Syt]

Interactive map for most towns and cities in Europe, tracking change in annual avg. temperatures since the 60s:

https://climatechange.europeandatajournalism.eu/en/map