Climate Change/Mass Extinction Megathread

[HVC]

From a selfish reason? Tourism I guess.

[Maladict]

From a purely irresponsible and selfish view, why should the inhabitants of Greenland and Iceland worry about the mildening of their islands' climate? Honest question.

Maybe they like it the way it is?

[Legbiter]

From a purely irresponsible and selfish view, why should the inhabitants of Greenland and Iceland worry about the mildening of their islands' climate? Honest question.

In my grandfather's childhood the local bay outside Reykjavík sometimes froze during winter. The 30's, 40's and 50's in Iceland were warm comparatively speaking and then there was another 30 year cold snap followed by a warming that's still ongoing. The glaciers in Iceland have been on an almost 2 century shrinking trend though since the Little Ice Age ended.

Current temperatures are approaching what they were around the time Iceland was first settled.

But yeah, the absolute worst case 4 degree warming scenario this century would take Iceland to about what a miserably cold Swedish summer is today. Canada and Iceland might actually become semi-inhabitable.

[Syt]

What about the Icelandic fishing industry?

[Legbiter]

What about the Icelandic fishing industry?

No idea, some species will become more or less abundant. Atlantic mackerel for instance is showing up in huge shoals around Iceland, enough to become a valuable addition to the usual species.

[Malthus]

From a purely irresponsible and selfish view, why should the inhabitants of Greenland and Iceland worry about the mildening of their islands' climate? Honest question.

Well, a few reasons.

First, global warming is a bit of a misnomer - while the temperature is overall increasing, what it leads to is increasing weather instability. Bad weather events have (and will) increase in frequency and severity.

Second, global warming (and global ice melting) will likely lead to a rise in sea levels - not good when many of your settlements are on the sea shores.

So overall, it isn't the warming that is the problem, but what it brings with it.

[Legbiter]

Yeah, we evolved as a species in an icehouse epoch and the current civilization is built around that. It would be a major struggle to adapt if we went back to the Pliocene climate.

[Valmy]

So overall, it isn't the warming that is the problem, but what it brings with it.

I cannot help but remember the last time the world was warmer Texas was under a shallow sea.

[Malthus]

So overall, it isn't the warming that is the problem, but what it brings with it.

I cannot help but remember the last time the world was warmer Texas was under a shallow sea.

So what you are saying is that climate change has an upside?

[  ]

[Richard Hakluyt]

With Florida and Texas underwater there is no way that Trump will get his 5th term 

[Eddie Teach]

The hamberders will do him in well before that.

[Legbiter]

So overall, it isn't the warming that is the problem, but what it brings with it.

I cannot help but remember the last time the world was warmer Texas was under a shallow sea.

So what you are saying is that climate change has an upside?

[  ]

Probably by the end of the 21st century there will be a massive carbon recapture infrastructure in place and that coupled with going full Brain, with 4th generation nuclear power plants online we'll be fine. At worst we're back to the Pliocene for a few thousand years. If the warming continues and the Earth goes to a Miocene climate, Europe will end up looking a lot like the Malaysian archipelago does today and Greenland will boast lush rainforests.

[Valmy]

Probably by the end of the 21st century there will be a massive carbon recapture infrastructure in place and that coupled with going full Brain, with 4th generation nuclear power plants online we'll be fine.

That is what I am hoping. I am really looking forward to seeing if we get results from the ITER project in 2025-2035.

[crazy canuck]

Probably by the end of the 21st century there will be a massive carbon recapture infrastructure in place and that coupled with going full Brain, with 4th generation nuclear power plants online we'll be fine.

That is what I am hoping. I am really looking forward to seeing if we get results from the ITER project in 2025-2035.

I also hope it works, but practical application will still be a long way off even if it is completely successful.  Keep in mind that they are just proving that creating excess heat energy is possible but this design is not going to produce sufficient power for net electrical production. 

Also keep in mind that without immediate steps we are going to reach 1.5 degrees of warming by 2034.  Likely earlier as the projection is refined with more recent data showing the arctic is warming faster than anticipated (and the resulting release of methane which will speed things up).

btw, here is a interesting site that has a countdown clock updated with current data regarding emissions.  You can look at the calculations for 1.5 and 2 degrees.

https://www.inverse.com/article/51531-how-long-till-global-temperatures-reach-1-5-degrees-celsius

[crazy canuck]

The salmon run this year was anticipated to be 5 million that has now been downgraded to 600,000

One of the main reasons identified in a report which made the reduced estimate is the significant warming of the ocean.

"An unprecedented heatwave, nicknamed "The Blob", dominated the Northeast Pacific Ocean from 2013-2016 (Figure 2). This ocean warming contributed to physical and biological changes, some of which continue to persist. Sea-surface-temperatures (SST) during the heatwave were 3-5°C above seasonal averages, extending down to depths of 100 m (Bond et al. 2015, Ross and Robert 2018, Smale et al. 2019). Climate modeling has shown that this heatwave can best be explained by human- caused warming (Walsh et al. 2018)."