Climate Change/Mass Extinction Megathread

Started by Syt, November 17, 2015, 05:50:30 AM

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The Minsky Moment

Have to agree cc

The delayers are like people that see a tornado coming for their house, and immediately call to cut their homeowner's insurance coverage to save on premiums.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

Razgovory

I think there is a real problem in saying "We're doomed!"  Hyperbole make it easier to dismiss a very serious problem.  I don't think anyone is predicting a runaway greenhouse scenario that would turn the Earth into Venereal wasteland.  Sea levels at the Eemian period are catastrophic enough.


I think we should make the climate deniers put some skin in the game.  If sea levels do rise to Eemian levels then all the displaced persons. have an absolute right to asylum in the US.  The Nation of Bangladesh would be totally lost.  Rising sea levels may not scare American conservatives, but an influx of 150 million brown-skinned Muslims might.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

crazy canuck

Sea level rise is the least of our concerns.  Scientists made a tactical error focusing on that early on.  their reason for doing so is it was easily understandable (or so they thought).  The other effects of climate change over 1.5 are pretty severe and likely trigger a feedback  loop that will be difficult to reverse.

QuoteScientists (including the Hothouse Earth authors) believe they are likely to be near 2 degrees C and that the risks increase dramatically above that level of global warming. But we can't rule out the possibility that it is closer at hand. Hence the goal of the Paris Climate agreement to stay well below 2 degrees C and attempt to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F).

https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/08/why-positive-climate-feedbacks-are-so-bad


Saying that we are not facing disaster if action isn't taken to keep up from going above 1.5 is simply irresponsible.

mongers

"We have it in our power to begin the world over again"

Maladict


Razgovory

Quote from: crazy canuck on June 27, 2019, 07:14:30 PM
Sea level rise is the least of our concerns.  Scientists made a tactical error focusing on that early on.  their reason for doing so is it was easily understandable (or so they thought).  The other effects of climate change over 1.5 are pretty severe and likely trigger a feedback  loop that will be difficult to reverse.

QuoteScientists (including the Hothouse Earth authors) believe they are likely to be near 2 degrees C and that the risks increase dramatically above that level of global warming. But we can't rule out the possibility that it is closer at hand. Hence the goal of the Paris Climate agreement to stay well below 2 degrees C and attempt to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F).

https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/08/why-positive-climate-feedbacks-are-so-bad


Saying that we are not facing disaster if action isn't taken to keep up from going above 1.5 is simply irresponsible.


I didn't say we aren't facing a disaster.  I object to saying things like "We're doomed".  Just so we are clear here, do you believe the situation described in your article will result in the death of every living creature on this planet?
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

crazy canuck

Quote from: Razgovory on June 28, 2019, 12:51:03 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on June 27, 2019, 07:14:30 PM
Sea level rise is the least of our concerns.  Scientists made a tactical error focusing on that early on.  their reason for doing so is it was easily understandable (or so they thought).  The other effects of climate change over 1.5 are pretty severe and likely trigger a feedback  loop that will be difficult to reverse.

QuoteScientists (including the Hothouse Earth authors) believe they are likely to be near 2 degrees C and that the risks increase dramatically above that level of global warming. But we can't rule out the possibility that it is closer at hand. Hence the goal of the Paris Climate agreement to stay well below 2 degrees C and attempt to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F).

https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/08/why-positive-climate-feedbacks-are-so-bad


Saying that we are not facing disaster if action isn't taken to keep up from going above 1.5 is simply irresponsible.


I didn't say we aren't facing a disaster.  I object to saying things like "We're doomed".  Just so we are clear here, do you believe the situation described in your article will result in the death of every living creature on this planet?


Every living creature?  No.


Syt

https://showyourstripes.info/

Gives stripe diagrams for countries/locations, showing if the year average was above or below the 1971-2000 average.

For Vienna, 1775 - 2018:



Globe 1850 - 2018:

I am, somehow, less interested in the weight and convolutions of Einstein's brain than in the near certainty that people of equal talent have lived and died in cotton fields and sweatshops.
—Stephen Jay Gould

Proud owner of 42 Zoupa Points.

viper37

Quote from: crazy canuck on June 27, 2019, 07:15:04 AM
Quote from: Tamas on June 27, 2019, 05:54:48 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on June 18, 2019, 12:36:05 PM
Quote from: Maladict on June 18, 2019, 12:22:40 PM
:(

https://twitter.com/RasmusTonboe/status/1139504201615237120

I got a good look at Greenland on our flight back from Europe - there are lots of deep wide trenches running down to the sea formed from glacier flows that used to be there.  It looks like a massive abandoned open pit mining operation.

IIRC the original photo was posted as dramatic because of how early this stage was reached in the year, otherwise this is supposed to happen in the summer.

But it went around the world with the basic attitude of OMG GREENLAND HAS LOST ICE, DOOM IS AT HAND.

My problem with that is that the issue is severe enough without hyperbole, I think arguments for action could be more convincing if at least the pro-action side refused to be sensationalist.

:huh:

The fact that the North is warming quickly is a very good indication that doom is at hand.
no, it is not.  It is an indication that Earth's temperature are rising quickly, faster than we might have expected, but it is not a very good indication that "doom" is at hand.
I don't do meditation.  I drink alcohol to relax, like normal people.

If Microsoft Excel decided to stop working overnight, the world would practically end.

crazy canuck

Quote from: viper37 on June 28, 2019, 01:57:05 PM

no, it is not.  It is an indication that Earth's temperature are rising quickly, faster than we might have expected, but it is not a very good indication that "doom" is at hand.

You suggested earlier that scientist were overly optimistic about the amount of time we have before going over 1.5 - why the about face now?  Or is it you think its no biggie?

viper37

@Syt, I was wondering why there was so much blue... Kinda forgot to scroll... doh!   :P :blush:

looking at it, Costa Rica seems not so bad, surprisingly.  Might be because it's already hellish and can't get worst, or the Pacific coast is doing wonder at these lattitudes.

On the other hand, with ice melting&all, maybe Greenland will become the new hotspot where tourists go during summer :P
I don't do meditation.  I drink alcohol to relax, like normal people.

If Microsoft Excel decided to stop working overnight, the world would practically end.

viper37

#701
Quote from: crazy canuck on June 28, 2019, 02:07:13 PM
Quote from: viper37 on June 28, 2019, 01:57:05 PM

no, it is not.  It is an indication that Earth's temperature are rising quickly, faster than we might have expected, but it is not a very good indication that "doom" is at hand.

You suggested earlier that scientist were overly optimistic about the amount of time we have before going over 1.5 - why the about face now?  Or is it you think its no biggie?
"Doom" is not science.  Doom is about having a planet unlivable for humans, or most of humanity anyway.  That is not the case, even with global warming.

It is a disaster, it will cost us much, much, much more money that it would to reduce our CO2 emissions right now, but it is not "doom", as in extinction level event for humanity, or most of the world's fauna (well, it is happenning, but it is not solely due, or even mostly due to global warming, that is a seperate problem we must also tackle).

Basically: can we adapt to global warming?  Yes.  Should we invest energy into adaptation rather than prevention?  No, certainly not.  Should we ignore adaptation or mitigation?  At this point, no.  Too many stupid people.


Also, we could do more, but never as much as the "Greens" want to.  Remember: the European greens managed to have Germany shut down its nuclear power plants and replace them with coal plants.  How is that helping us?

There are ways to be realistic about it, and Tamas is right, talking of impending "DOOM" is not helping.
I don't do meditation.  I drink alcohol to relax, like normal people.

If Microsoft Excel decided to stop working overnight, the world would practically end.

crazy canuck

that is double talk Viper.  We are already experiencing species extinction at alarming rates and we have not even got to 1.5 yet.  Both on land and in the oceans. 

Eddie Teach

Sounds pretty serious. Maybe we should stop flying planes halfway around the world for fun.
To sleep, perchance to dream. But in that sleep of death, what dreams may come?

Razgovory

Quote from: crazy canuck on June 28, 2019, 08:37:27 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on June 28, 2019, 12:51:03 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on June 27, 2019, 07:14:30 PM
Sea level rise is the least of our concerns.  Scientists made a tactical error focusing on that early on.  their reason for doing so is it was easily understandable (or so they thought).  The other effects of climate change over 1.5 are pretty severe and likely trigger a feedback  loop that will be difficult to reverse.

QuoteScientists (including the Hothouse Earth authors) believe they are likely to be near 2 degrees C and that the risks increase dramatically above that level of global warming. But we can't rule out the possibility that it is closer at hand. Hence the goal of the Paris Climate agreement to stay well below 2 degrees C and attempt to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F).

https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/08/why-positive-climate-feedbacks-are-so-bad


Saying that we are not facing disaster if action isn't taken to keep up from going above 1.5 is simply irresponsible.


I didn't say we aren't facing a disaster.  I object to saying things like "We're doomed".  Just so we are clear here, do you believe the situation described in your article will result in the death of every living creature on this planet?


Every living creature?  No.


Okay, that's a start.  Will every living human being will be extinct?
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017