Climate Change/Mass Extinction Megathread

[mongers]

Looks like the drought in the Horn of Africa is one of the worst ever - with a failed harvest and farm animals dying in large numbers as well. It is also - apparently - very clear that this drought is driven by humean created climate change.

So... we'll probably see more of this, with significant areas potentially becoming unable to support the populations that live there. I expect that as the people become unable to survive in their home countries they'll try to move elsewhere... so I guess we're looking at a period of mass migration in the upcoming decades.

Yes, I've been following this for a while and it's heartbreaking, they're now entering their 5th year of drought.

Also it's affecting the wider region including much of Northern Kenya and causing a lot of deadly violence between pastoralist forced to keep moving and local agriculturalists.

[Josquius]

It's not all doom and gloom. Sen. Johnson (R-Wisconsin) points out the bright side: climate change will be positive for his home state.

https://www.newsweek.com/ron-johnson-says-climate-change-beneficial-1796937

Ah, so he's volunteering it as a New Somalia

[viper37]

Saving whales to store more carbon

Translated from a French text.
Original text here

33 tons of CO ₂

In 2019, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published an analysis recalling the importance of protecting whales in order to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions into the atmosphere. The analysis was based on a study unveiled in 2014 in the journal Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment . A team of scientists, including Quebec biologist Lyne Morissette, then indicated that a large whale sequesters an average of 33 tons of CO ₂ . This is, so to speak, stored in the ocean for thousands of years, since when it dies, a whale sinks to the seabed.

As many as 1000 trees
The IMF analysis recalls that a tree stores an average of 48 kg of CO ₂ per year. A single whale would therefore make it possible to sequester as much CO ₂ as 1000 trees, specify the IMF experts. There will never be as many whales in the oceans as there are trees on the Earth's surface, but "protecting whales could make a significant contribution to carbon sequestration, as the current population of the largest whales does not is a small fraction of what it once was," the IMF adds.

Declining populations
The whales likely to store as much carbon are the large baleen whales, such as the blue whale, the humpback whale, the right whale, as well as the sperm whale, which is however part of the toothed whale family. Several species of large whales have declined dramatically over the past century. It is estimated that they lost an average of 66% of their population during this period. It's even worse for the blue whale, reduced to 1% of its historic population. In addition to their ability to store carbon, large cetaceans also play an essential role in regulating marine ecosystems. They help maintain phytoplankton stocks, which are largely responsible for the oceans' ability to capture huge quantities of CO ₂ .

Nine key animal species
A recent study published in the journal Nature Climate Change indicates that by protecting six animal species and promoting the expansion of three others, we could remove 6.4 billion tonnes of CO ₂ from the atmosphere each year, or equivalent to 17% of emissions in 2022. To achieve this, the populations of reef sharks, gray wolves, wildebeest, sea otters, muskoxen and marine fish would have to be maintained at their current levels. also help to increase the populations of African forest elephants, American bison and whales in the southern hemisphere.
36.8 billion tons

_{In 2022, global CO 2} emissions from fossil fuels amounted to 36.8 billion tonnes

Saving whales to save the planet from a future extinction event... I've seen this in a movie before...

[Jacob]

Massive and early forest fires in BC and Canada this year.

Apparently one BC forest fire is covering as much land as all th fires of 2022 put together.

[Grey Fox]

Yeah. Smoke in the air all the way down in Montreal today. Everything had this orange hue.

[viper37]

Yeah. Smoke in the air all the way down in Montreal today. Everything had this orange hue.

I remember the peat moss fire & forest fire over here a few years ago, it was awful.

Hope it's not too bad.  Not like this, I hope:  (Chibougamau)
 

[Admiral Yi]

I was wondering why we had a red moon last night.

[viper37]

I was wondering why we had a red moon last night.

Red is different.  That's the forces of Vega preparing for an attack. 
(Duque will understand, Oex too, not so sure about anyone else )

https://youtu.be/FRpAcdzJUdA?t=26

[Duque de Bragança]

I was wondering why we had a red moon last night.

Red is different.  That's the forces of Vega preparing for an attack. 
(Duque will understand, Oex too, not so sure about anyone else )

https://youtu.be/FRpAcdzJUdA?t=26

That's harsh for Goupil Gris. 

Should have added a trigger warning for the Ségolènes around here 

[viper37]

That's harsh for Goupil Gris.

These kids, they know nothing.

[Maladict]

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jun/06/too-late-now-to-save-arctic-summer-ice-climate-scientists-find

Too late now to save Arctic summer ice, climate scientists find

Ice-free summers inevitable even with sharp emissions cuts and likely to result in more extreme heatwaves and floods
Damian Carrington E
Tue 6 Jun 2023 16.00 BST
Last modified on Tue 6 Jun 2023 16.32 BST

It is now too late to save summer Arctic sea ice, research has shown, and scientists say preparations need to be made for the increased extreme weather across the northern hemisphere that is likely to occur as a result.

Analysis shows that even if greenhouse gas emissions are sharply reduced, the Arctic will be ice-free in September in coming decades. The study also shows that if emissions decline slowly or continue to rise, the first ice-free summer could be in the 2030s, a decade earlier than previous projections.

The research shows that 90% of the melting is the result of human-caused global heating, with natural factors accounting for the rest.

Since satellite records began in 1979, summer Arctic ice has shrunk by 13% a decade, in one of the clearest signs of the climate crisis. Arctic sea ice reaches its annual minimum at the end of summer, in September, and in 2021 it was at its second lowest extent on record.

"Unfortunately it has become too late to save Arctic summer sea ice," said Prof Dirk Notz, of the University of Hamburg, Germany, who was part of the study team. "As scientists, we've been warning about the loss of Arctic summer sea ice for decades. This is now the first major component of the Earth system that we are going to lose because of global warming. People didn't listen to our warnings.

"This brings another warning bell, that the kind of projections that we've made for other components of the Earth system will start unfolding in the decades to come."

Other climate scientists said in 2022 that the world was on the brink of multiple disastrous tipping points.

Prof Seung-Ki Min, of Pohang University, South Korea, who led the new study, said: "The most important impact for human society will be the increase in weather extremes that we are experiencing now, such as heatwaves, wildfires and floods. We need to reduce CO2 emissions more ambitiously and also prepare to adapt to this faster Arctic warming and its impacts on human society and ecosystems."

In 2021, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that the Arctic would not lose its summer ice if emissions were cut sharply and global temperature rises were limited to 2C. But the new research, published in the journal Nature Communications, projects the loss of summer sea ice in the 2050s in the low emissions scenario.

The IPCC report concluded that the Arctic would lose its summer ice in the 2040s in intermediate and high emissions scenarios, but the new research advances that by a decade into the 2030s.

In the study, the scientists first established how much rising greenhouse gases have contributed to ice melting compared with natural factors such as variation in the sun's intensity and emissions from volcanoes. "Humans really are to blame for almost all the loss of Arctic sea ice we have been observing," Notz said.

The scientists used this information to model future melting and found that the models underestimated the pace of melting compared with observations of ice in the Arctic from 1979 to 2019.

Calibrating the models to be consistent with the observations led to the projections of faster melting and an ice-free summer even in the low emissions scenario. In the intermediate and high emissions scenarios, August and October also become ice-free by about 2080, the study found.

It is not possible to pinpoint a particular year for the first ice-free summer because of natural variability in the climate system.

Faster melting of Arctic sea ice leads to a vicious circle of more heating, because the dark ocean exposed as ice melts absorbs more heat from the sun. The result is faster warming in the Arctic, and scientists have increasing evidence that this is weakening the jet stream and leading to more extreme weather events in North America, Europe and Asia.

The searing heatwave in the Pacific north-west of America in 2021 and the catastrophic floods in Pakistan in 2022 are the type of events that may be increasing in likelihood because of a weaker jet stream.

Min said faster Arctic heating also accelerated the melting of the Greenland ice cap, driving up sea level, and the melting of permafrost regions, releasing more greenhouse gases. Polar bears and other wildlife in the Arctic and the Indigenous people of the region all rely on sea ice.

Prof Mark Serreze, the director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado Boulder in the US, who was not part of the study team, said: "The key message is that we are pretty much destined to lose the Arctic's sea ice cover in late summer. The question is: when will this occur?

"Over the past decade, there has not been much of a downward trend in September sea ice, which reflects the natural variability in the system. This hiatus will not last, but it shows the difficulties in making predictions. About a decade ago, I mused that the Arctic might lose its summer sea ice by 2030. That may have been an overly aggressive statement. While from the present study 2030 is still in the running, I'm going with sometime in the 2040s – that's still not very far away."

[Sheilbh]

And current status in Europe at the start of summer (I've no idea why the boundaries are what they are):

[Josquius]

Quite amazing after how wet winter and early spring was.

I miss proper winters

[DGuller]

Today NYC area has been covered with smog that smelled of burning wood, reportedly from Canadian wildfires.  When you look out the window, it almost looks like 1980 out there.  Canada delivered to libertarians something that the Supreme Court hasn't managed to, yet.

[viper37]

This region is very far away from where I live.  I don't feel the effect of any of these fires where I am, I'm lucky.  People living 45 minutes east of here have received some smoke from the North shore fires.

This is from the Abitibi fires, some pictures taken from the cities.  The Premier has announced that one small village of 36 souls will be left to fend for itself if the fire reach it, because there's not enough people on the ground to cover all the infrastructures + the village.  Civil security says it's too soon to declare all hope lost for the village, they'll be fighting for as long as they can, but some cottages are already lost.  People have been evacuated, the roads have been closed, the firefighters are doing their best, but the lines are spread thin.

Reinforcements have come in from France, but Canada and the US have their own problems to deal with right now.  The Canadian government has sent in the army to help in some areas, some of the soldiers have trained on fire lances, other have helped evacuating.

 

 

 

 

 



As is the case with every emergencies, wild conspiracy theories abound.

Maxime Bernier, leader of the People's Party of Canada has pulled a Bolsonaro out of his hat and accused green terrorists of setting the forests on fire to promote their political agenda.
https://twitter.com/maximebernier/status/1665868581970608128

Ah.  The guy needs help.  He's starting to believe himself.