Climate Change/Mass Extinction Megathread

[Sheilbh]

The beauty of a carbon tax is it already has progressivity built into it, since the people currently consuming more carbon--the rich--would pay more.

Just like the famously progressive VAT

Separately really striking illustration of just how much every country's shift to net zero runs through China. This is about EVs but I think it's similar in other energy transition essential areas:


And again this is the worry that the West (at least Europe) just weaning off an energy dependency on one authoritarian state is creating a new one with another.

[PJL]

20 years ago the ideas of the Left of nationalising the 'commanding heights of the economy' were seen as terribly old-fashioned and a relic of the '60s & '70s. But in a way they did have a point - much of it was connected to energy & military security and therefore ultimately economic security. Of course, the execution left much to be desired. Labours' new GB Energy publicly owned company setup they announced when they get elected is a step in the right direction. Let's hope the execution is better than last time (then again it'll probably end up like another HS2 project).

[DGuller]

Climate is a class issue and a justice issue in terms of both historic emissions and present impact. I don't think any solution is possible that doesn't address that in some way - if it is felt to be unjust then no solution will be possible.

The beauty of a carbon tax is it already has progressivity built into it, since the people currently consuming more carbon--the rich--would pay more.

Progressivity is defined as rising percent tax, not rising absolute tax.  Sales/consumption taxes are notoriously regressive in practice, and flat nominally, because consumption at some point doesn't scale with income.

[Admiral Yi]

Progressivity is defined as rising percent tax, not rising absolute tax.  Sales/consumption taxes are notoriously regressive in practice, and flat nominally, because consumption at some point doesn't scale with income.

If carbon consumption rises at a greater rate than income, a flat carbon tax would be progressive with respect to income.

[Valmy]

Separately really striking illustration of just how much every country's shift to net zero runs through China. This is about EVs but I think it's similar in other energy transition essential areas:

I am not convinced the technology is mature enough for this to be that predictive. There are so many more designs and technologies being developed in these areas, it could be that soon the materials and construction processes are very different.

Though currently as it stands this is indeed the case, and China has been working on this for a long time.

[DGuller]

Progressivity is defined as rising percent tax, not rising absolute tax.  Sales/consumption taxes are notoriously regressive in practice, and flat nominally, because consumption at some point doesn't scale with income.

If carbon consumption rises at a greater rate than income, a flat carbon tax would be progressive with respect to income.

That's true if that were the case, but that's probably not the case.  Elon Musk doesn't fly his private jet a 1000 times more than some CEO grunt.

[Josquius]

Progressivity is defined as rising percent tax, not rising absolute tax.  Sales/consumption taxes are notoriously regressive in practice, and flat nominally, because consumption at some point doesn't scale with income.

If carbon consumption rises at a greater rate than income, a flat carbon tax would be progressive with respect to income.

That's true if that were the case, but that's probably not the case.  Elon Musk doesn't fly his private jet a 1000 times more than some CEO grunt.

Is his income 1000 times more however? I understand much of his wealth is stock.
Which is a problem with trying to tax the rich. The truly rich don't care about salaries. Tax them 100% and they will only oppose you on principle, they don't need that money.

[Tonitrus]

Well, we do have that pesky capital gains tax...for when they sell off some of that stock to fund the mega-yacht.

[Admiral Yi]

That's true if that were the case, but that's probably not the case.  Elon Musk doesn't fly his private jet a 1000 times more than some CEO grunt.

You're right.  I read the report sloppily.

However, I do think the data they presented was screened in such a way as to make drawing conclusions about progressivity impossible.

Which leads me to believe the report is crap.

[The Larch]

If somebody wants to give it a go, the Financial Times has a cool web game on its site about how to reach net zero by 2050. It's not super complex, but gives a good overview of the main issues.

https://ig.ft.com/climate-game/

[Josquius]

If somebody wants to give it a go, the Financial Times has a cool web game on its site about how to reach net zero by 2050. It's not super complex, but gives a good overview of the main issues.

https://ig.ft.com/climate-game/

Less a game than a quiz on whether you can spot the various wasteful "wunder tech will save us all!" stuff. But pretty nice for being that. People do need to see more importance in actual action

[Admiral Yi]

*spoiler*

I played the first round of the game.  AFAICT it's a powerpoint dressed up as a game to make the point that lots of really big changes need to be made to get to net zero.

[Tamas]

I have only been going by the first page highlights on The Guardian, but is COP27 about anything else other than small countries trying to get blank checks from the big ones?

[Sheilbh]

I have only been going by the first page highlights on The Guardian, but is COP27 about anything else other than small countries trying to get blank checks from the big ones?

No. The COPs are valuable precisely because it's a UN body so it allows small countries equal standing and means their voice is heard unlike at, say, the G7 or the G20 or even regional forums.

But COPS (since Paris I think) are basically split into "deciding" conferences when there's an update to NDCs and a process for countries to make pledges and "monitoring" conferences which does what it says on the tin - they're about monitoring and holding countries to account on their progress against their NDCs. The deciding conferences are every five years - which was Paris, then Glasgow - and the ones in between for monitoring.

So the purpose of this COP is for small countries to have a voice but also to hold to account countries, especially if they haven't followed through on their promises which rich countries haven't really on climate finance. There's not goin to be much in the way of new announcements but there might be a bit more money or updates on rich countries actually paying out what they've already promised.

[Barrister]

*spoiler*

I played the first round of the game.  AFAICT it's a powerpoint dressed up as a game to make the point that lots of really big changes need to be made to get to net zero.

Yeah - there's a series of questions, with only one being the right one and the others being wrong (though occasionally they're "wrong" for being too top-down).