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The Pacific Northwest is DOOMED!

Started by jimmy olsen, July 16, 2015, 01:27:40 AM

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Monoriu

Quote from: Tyr on July 17, 2015, 03:57:57 AM
It will be a shame to have all the death and human suffering, people from that area seem generally rather cool.
But on the plus side: no Starbucks

Starbucks are great  :mad:

Caliga

0 Ed Anger Disapproval Points

dps

Quote from: Tonitrus on July 17, 2015, 01:20:53 AM
Quote from: dps on July 17, 2015, 12:08:39 AM
29% of the population of Oregon is disabled?  That's kind of hard to believe.

I tried to find a source for that...this is probably where they googled it from:

http://www.ohsu.edu/xd/research/centers-institutes/institute-on-development-and-disability/public-health-programs/oodh/upload/Needs-Assessment_final_AS_whj.pdf

The definition they're using seems so broad as to be meaningless.  In fact, it's so broad that I'm surprised they didn't come up with a figure in excess of 90%.

DontSayBanana

Quote from: jimmy olsen on July 16, 2015, 01:27:40 AM
Not an exaggeration :(

Funny, because even one of the authors says the risk has been blown out of proportion by the media.  The probability is actually only 15% of an M8-M9 quake happening there within the next 50 years.  They're not happy with the alarmist tone of the New Yorker piece that spawned this: https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/3da1mh/we_are_earthquake_experts_ask_us_anything_about/ct37kge

Also, Fox News seems to be the one that's claimed it happens every 240 years- the historical data is nowhere near that regular, and I'm not sure where that number came from, because the mean interval between recorded seismic events is twice that- 480 years.
Experience bij!

lustindarkness

Grand Duke of Lurkdom

frunk

Quote from: DontSayBanana on July 19, 2015, 07:57:38 AM
Funny, because even one of the authors says the risk has been blown out of proportion by the media.  The probability is actually only 15% of an M8-M9 quake happening there within the next 50 years.  They're not happy with the alarmist tone of the New Yorker piece that spawned this: https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/3da1mh/we_are_earthquake_experts_ask_us_anything_about/ct37kge

Also, Fox News seems to be the one that's claimed it happens every 240 years- the historical data is nowhere near that regular, and I'm not sure where that number came from, because the mean interval between recorded seismic events is twice that- 480 years.

The data on frequency is mixed.  Off the Wiki:

QuoteGeological evidence indicates that great earthquakes (> magnitude 8.0) may have occurred sporadically at least seven times in the last 3,500 years, suggesting a return time of about 500 years.[14][15][16] Seafloor core evidence indicates that there have been forty-one subduction zone earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone in the past 10,000 years, suggesting a general average earthquake recurrence interval of only 243 years.

jimmy olsen

Quote from: DontSayBanana on July 19, 2015, 07:57:38 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on July 16, 2015, 01:27:40 AM
Not an exaggeration :(

Funny, because even one of the authors says the risk has been blown out of proportion by the media.  The probability is actually only 15% of an M8-M9 quake happening there within the next 50 years.  They're not happy with the alarmist tone of the New Yorker piece that spawned this: https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/3da1mh/we_are_earthquake_experts_ask_us_anything_about/ct37kge

Also, Fox News seems to be the one that's claimed it happens every 240 years- the historical data is nowhere near that regular, and I'm not sure where that number came from, because the mean interval between recorded seismic events is twice that- 480 years.

The New Yorker article is the one that claimed the 240 year interval.

The government never does any common sense preperation unless prompted by hysteria, so I have no problem with this.
It is far better for the truth to tear my flesh to pieces, then for my soul to wander through darkness in eternal damnation.

Jet: So what kind of woman is she? What's Julia like?
Faye: Ordinary. The kind of beautiful, dangerous ordinary that you just can't leave alone.
Jet: I see.
Faye: Like an angel from the underworld. Or a devil from Paradise.
--------------------------------------------
1 Karma Chameleon point

crazy canuck

The last major subduction quake here occurred in 1700.  On average major quakes occur every 500 years. 

jimmy olsen

Quote from: crazy canuck on July 20, 2015, 08:36:50 AM
The last major subduction quake here occurred in 1700.  On average major quakes occur every 500 years.
Core samples from the sea floor say otherwise.
It is far better for the truth to tear my flesh to pieces, then for my soul to wander through darkness in eternal damnation.

Jet: So what kind of woman is she? What's Julia like?
Faye: Ordinary. The kind of beautiful, dangerous ordinary that you just can't leave alone.
Jet: I see.
Faye: Like an angel from the underworld. Or a devil from Paradise.
--------------------------------------------
1 Karma Chameleon point

crazy canuck

#39
When I hear a core sample say otherwise, I will listen to it.

I understand we are talking about major quakes?

The Minsky Moment

Quote from: crazy canuck on July 20, 2015, 08:36:50 AM
The last major subduction quake here occurred in 1700.  On average major quakes occur every 500 years.

That's not very reassuring.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

crazy canuck

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on July 21, 2015, 12:18:44 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on July 20, 2015, 08:36:50 AM
The last major subduction quake here occurred in 1700.  On average major quakes occur every 500 years.

That's not very reassuring.

Its better than Timmay's average which indicates one is long over due. 

Razgovory

Well, keep in mind that Seismology is Jesuit plot.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

jimmy olsen

Quote from: Razgovory on July 21, 2015, 06:34:36 PM
Well, keep in mind that Seismology is Jesuit plot.
Is that an actual conspiracy theory you're referencing, or did you just make it up?
It is far better for the truth to tear my flesh to pieces, then for my soul to wander through darkness in eternal damnation.

Jet: So what kind of woman is she? What's Julia like?
Faye: Ordinary. The kind of beautiful, dangerous ordinary that you just can't leave alone.
Jet: I see.
Faye: Like an angel from the underworld. Or a devil from Paradise.
--------------------------------------------
1 Karma Chameleon point

Razgovory

I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017