The Boy Who Cried Robot: A World Without Work

[Martinus]

Actually, a lot of lawyer work is going to be replaced within the next 5 years or so by an AI. Which poses a major challenge for recruiting - because in the past you would recruit, say, 10 trainees, have them carry out due diligence document review, and winnow them every few years until you end up with one or two who will end up as a partner. But now it is too expensive, and the AI is going to do that much cheaper - so it will become a true challenge how you pick the right ones to kick at the outset.

Maybe you'll realize that doing thousands of hours of due diligence doc review doesn't tell you anything about who would make a good partner?

You misunderstood me. The thing is back in the day we could hire, say, 10 trainees and pick up the best ones to keep. Now it will no longer be possible because they won't be a job for them.

I understand that.  I've been a part of it myself.

I'm suggesting that's a shitty system to begin with.

How would you improve it?

[Barrister]

Actually, a lot of lawyer work is going to be replaced within the next 5 years or so by an AI. Which poses a major challenge for recruiting - because in the past you would recruit, say, 10 trainees, have them carry out due diligence document review, and winnow them every few years until you end up with one or two who will end up as a partner. But now it is too expensive, and the AI is going to do that much cheaper - so it will become a true challenge how you pick the right ones to kick at the outset.

Maybe you'll realize that doing thousands of hours of due diligence doc review doesn't tell you anything about who would make a good partner?

You misunderstood me. The thing is back in the day we could hire, say, 10 trainees and pick up the best ones to keep. Now it will no longer be possible because they won't be a job for them.

I understand that.  I've been a part of it myself.

I'm suggesting that's a shitty system to begin with.

How would you improve it?

Outsourse the cue dilly work (cheaper for the client anyways) and only hire lawyers you kind-of expect will make partner.  There will naturally be some attrition, but to expect to keep only 1 out of 10 after 5-8 years is insane.

[Martinus]

It's very hard to make a decision as to where someone will be in 10 years during an interview with a law school graduate.

[MadImmortalMan]

Maybe if there were fewer law schools it wouldn't be so much of a problem.

[CountDeMoney]

Somehow I can't shake the feeling that Marti's hiring practices are a bit more...mercurial.

[garbon]

Somehow I can't shake the feeling that Marti's hiring practices are a bit more...mercurial.

Shake it baby.

[jimmy olsen]

60,000 Chinese workers fired and replaced by robots at just one factory.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-36376966

[Berkut]

Lucky bastards, now they can find better jobs!

[DGuller]

[Monoriu]

60,000 Chinese workers fired and replaced by robots at just one factory.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-36376966

Foxconn is huge, and has millions of workers.  They assemble most iphones in the world.  60,000 as a percentage isn't that high.  Some of it also has to do with the labour laws that China has put in place in recent years that aim to improve worker welfare.  Unfavourable demographics also mean that the supply of cheap rural labour has dried up, and labour costs have gone up. 

I remember a story in the news that a Foxconn worker was caught smoking within the factory, yet the guy talked back and was being an ass to the manager.  Turned out the manager was none other than the Taiwanese majority shareholder and board chairman.  Foxconn had to institute a "know your chairman" campaign soon afterwards.  Maybe the guy is fed up with having human staff

[grumbler]

60,000 Chinese workers fired and replaced by robots at just one factory.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-36376966

I'm having a hard time believing that one factory could efficiently employ 110,000 people.  I'm thinking that's a translation error.  If that was the actual factory size, 25 of them would employ every man, woman, and child in Kunshan. 

I could believe that Foxconn employed 110,000 in the province, and cut the workforce by 60,000.  But in "just one factory?"  That's harder to believe (and the info comes from the province PR guy, not from a primary source, so even less credible).

[Grey Fox]

It is not, well maybe.

Foxconn has 400k Factory, in Longhua I believe.

[The Minsky Moment]

Unfavourable demographics also mean that the supply of cheap rural labour has dried up, and labour costs have gone up.

That's a significant factor that is driving automation now and will increasingly do so in the future.  Just as happened in the US, Europe, Japan, Korea etc.  For better or worse, it's part of the regular historical progression of a developing industrial economy.

[Monoriu]

The mainland factories are having lots of problems finding enough workers anyway.  The new, single child generation don't really want to work in the electronics factories, and it isn't hard to see why.  Another problem Foxconn faces is an unacceptably high defects rate.  Human workers simply make too many mistakes.  Too many completed iphones don't pass quality checks, costing them a fortune.  Robotics is the long term solution to these problems. 

Overall I am not too worried about a world without work.  Human interaction cannot be completely replaced.  But there will be lots of changes.  Driverless trucks aren't too far away, and I imagine a lot of legal, accounting, financial and office work can be automated and replaced by AIs.  At the same time, I imagine that we'll need more IT people and engineers to create and take care of the additional systems in place, so it isn't like all the jobs will disappear.  The real problem is that a lot of people (truck drivers for example) won't be able to find meaningful employment. 

[Iormlund]

60,000 Chinese workers fired and replaced by robots at just one factory.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-36376966

I'm having a hard time believing that one factory could efficiently employ 110,000 people.  I'm thinking that's a translation error.  If that was the actual factory size, 25 of them would employ every man, woman, and child in Kunshan. 

I could believe that Foxconn employed 110,000 in the province, and cut the workforce by 60,000.  But in "just one factory?"  That's harder to believe (and the info comes from the province PR guy, not from a primary source, so even less credible).

It's not that hard to believe. I've spent some time at Wolfsburg (the HQ of VW). Over a hundred thousand people work there. It's basically an entire city built around the plant where the Beetle was made.