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The Off Topic Topic

Started by Korea, March 10, 2009, 06:24:26 AM

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Tamas

Half a percent to push Erdogan over 50 must be trivial to "find" in the remaining count, not to mention the expats votes. Do we know if those are mail-in ones like the cross-border ones in Hungary? The latter, miraculously, always are overwhelmingly for Orban.

Tamas

Incidentally it was interesting to read a few days ago a Turkish analyst talking about in what ways Erdogan has less absolute control over the country than Orban does. The awkward feeling when your EU-member birth country is deemed more autocratic than Turkey.

Duque de Bragança

Quote from: Tamas on May 15, 2023, 03:09:36 AMHalf a percent to push Erdogan over 50 must be trivial to "find" in the remaining count, not to mention the expats votes. Do we know if those are mail-in ones like the cross-border ones in Hungary? The latter, miraculously, always are overwhelmingly for Orban.

Without even manipulating results, Turkish emigrants are 60-65 % pro-Erdogan in the Low Countries, Germany and France (plus royalistes que le roi) so hold your breath.

Sheilbh

Quote from: Josquius on May 15, 2023, 02:19:10 AMLooking at the reporting what seems particularly painful is that expats lean pro erdogen :bleeding:
It varies - Presidential and Parliamentary votes below:


In part, possibly, demographics. I think Turks living in Germany, for example, tend to be Anatolian which is Erdogan's base. While I think "Turks" in the UK are often actually Turkish Cypriots and actual Turks are often Kurds. I think similarly Sweden has quite a large Kurdish population.

In a way I think it'd be strange if people's voting behaviour in national elections changed just because they moved overseas. I'd expect it's probably similar if you looked at, say, Poles abroad or anyone else.

QuoteHalf a percent to push Erdogan over 50 must be trivial to "find" in the remaining count, not to mention the expats votes. Do we know if those are mail-in ones like the cross-border ones in Hungary? The latter, miraculously, always are overwhelmingly for Orban.
There's lots of reports of dubiousness in reporting - so the votes we're seeing now are with 99% of "ballot boxes opened". That's different than counted or reported not clear on how many certified votes have been added to the tally yet.

Everything I've seen is that the votes are being counted fairly and the YSK is doing a good job. But as I say the AKP were challenging lots of ballot boxes (that they're losing) and demanding recounts. It looks a bit like Trump 2020 in that Erdogan has an early lead because of the areas that report first but also to create a narrative.

It's not "free and fair" because Erdogan has and uses the power of the Turkish state and they intimidate the media. But it is on a technical level a free and fair election.
Let's bomb Russia!

Josquius

I hope you're right and they're just delaying the counting in the cities.
As earlier on Sunday it did seem like the opposition could be due for a win with things fairly equal with just the big cities left to count.
But reporting is already saying the run off is coming. :hmm:
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Sheilbh

Oh it's almost definitely a run-off (from what I've read it's very unlikely there's that many votes left) but I think it is important that there's a difference between ballot boxes opened (which is what's being reported) and votes counted which I don't think has been finalised yet. I think the reporting could be a bit better on that especially, as I say, this is about creating a narrative which internationally has already been fixed.
Let's bomb Russia!

Admiral Yi

Quote from: Sheilbh on May 15, 2023, 08:45:06 AMIn a way I think it'd be strange if people's voting behaviour in national elections changed just because they moved overseas. I'd expect it's probably similar if you looked at, say, Poles abroad or anyone else.

In a way it would be strange if it didn't change.  Assimilation, internalization of western values.

Sheilbh

Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 15, 2023, 08:55:24 AMIn a way it would be strange if it didn't change.  Assimilation, internalization of western values.
I think there's probably a degree of that which depends on the ability/openness of other societies to assimilating migrants, which I think in Europe at least is maybe a bit variable.

I'm also not that sure on the western values point. My view is that Erdogan has always been that he's an authoritarian who happens to be a Muslim/soft Islamist. The focus from Western critics tends to be overwhelmingly on the fact that he's a Muslim which I think is insignificant compared to the broad similarity of Erdogan with sometimes successful political movements in the West. The defining feature, in my view, of his politics is of a piece with Putin, Orban, Trumpists, Netanyahu, arguably Lega etc. If he was in the "Judeo-Christian" tradition he'd be a star speaker at National Conservatism conferences and you'd have Tucker Carlson doing softball interview with him. I could be wrong on that but my sense is that there's still far too much orientalising of Erdogan and Turkey when he's a pretty recognisable figure in most Western democracies.

But more broadly if you're from a poor family in Anatolia and vote AKP, it's not clear to me why your politics would change when you move to Germany and get a minimum wage, blue collar job. Maybe a generation if they go to university or move into the middle class - that would involve new experiences that will affect someone's politics, but I'm not sure that just changing countries would. To the extent it would I imagine you might have a different view on who you'd vote for in, say, Amsterdam or Dortmund but not necessarily who you think is best for people back in Anatolia.
Let's bomb Russia!

Josquius

There's definitely the issue to consider of who is moving to the west.
I remember a Polish girl once telling me how Poles in the UK were pretty looked down on as they overwhelmingly were from the poorer and more conservative parts of the country whilst those Poles who had stuff going on in life had a good enough life in Poland to not want to leave.
Historically this has been the case with Turkey too, though....
1: As I understand it a huge part of the Turkish dysphoria in Germany and others has traditionally been Kurdish.
2: Since Erdogan most of my Turkish friends (educated people, met at uni), have left Turkey for good.
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Tamas

In general I think there are two kinds of people emigrating: those who have nothing to lose and those who have the skills (language and otherwise) to make it a low-risk endeavour. These don't predetermine your politics but I think it's only the second group for which politics can be (but doesn't have to be) an important factor in migrating.

Also I suspect being away from your home country can push you toward nationalistic feelings PLUS not keeping tabs on the daily situation back home -I assume- can make you more receptive of the propaganda - e.g. if I were to only listen to state and mainstream (and those Orban-owned) media I would be thinking the old country is doing splendidly considering the circumstances and the constant siege they are being under by all the evil homosexual Muslims or whatever.

Sheilbh

Quote from: Tamas on May 15, 2023, 09:47:17 AMIn general I think there are two kinds of people emigrating: those who have nothing to lose and those who have the skills (language and otherwise) to make it a low-risk endeavour. These don't predetermine your politics but I think it's only the second group for which politics can be (but doesn't have to be) an important factor in migrating.
Yeah I think there's lots of people where it is a better life - and also if you've got the language, the skills (and I'd argue the class position) to really participate in your new society then I think your politics might change. It's like going to university in that sense because you'll have lots of new experiences.

If you don't have those, or your not able to access that because of class or bigotry, then I think it's unlikely your politics would change. In part because your environment has, to some extent, only changed superficially.

QuoteAlso I suspect being away from your home country can push you toward nationalistic feelings PLUS not keeping tabs on the daily situation back home -I assume- can make you more receptive of the propaganda - e.g. if I were to only listen to state and mainstream (and those Orban-owned) media I would be thinking the old country is doing splendidly considering the circumstances and the constant siege they are being under by all the evil homosexual Muslims or whatever.
And, I think, vice-versa.
Let's bomb Russia!

Jacob

Quote from: Sheilbh on May 15, 2023, 11:32:00 AM
QuoteAlso I suspect being away from your home country can push you toward nationalistic feelings PLUS not keeping tabs on the daily situation back home -I assume- can make you more receptive of the propaganda - e.g. if I were to only listen to state and mainstream (and those Orban-owned) media I would be thinking the old country is doing splendidly considering the circumstances and the constant siege they are being under by all the evil homosexual Muslims or whatever.
And, I think, vice-versa.

Oh absolutely. Going from soft nationalist to hard-core anti-CCP is not uncommon at all for Chinese emigrants, for example. Though there are others who go all in on "my country, right or wrong" once they've left, and others yet who just focus on using whatever systems are in place to get ahead personally.

Sheilbh

#88467
What the fuck is going on with American Gen Zers? :lol: :blink:
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2023/may/14/fake-british-accents-americans-gen-z

Edit: I mean :lol:
QuoteBrinton Parker, a 30-year-old who lives in the Bay Area, works in tech marketing. The deluge of bad news out of Silicon Valley has her feeling like she's approaching burnout, and she recently asked her manager for support at work.

"I said, 'It's affecting me mental health, innit?'" she explained. "And my boss was like, 'Why did you say it like that?' I think it adds levity to a vulnerable situation. The tougher the conversation, the more Cockney I become."
Let's bomb Russia!

Barrister

Quote from: Sheilbh on May 15, 2023, 01:06:26 PMWhat the fuck is going on with American Gen Zers? :lol: :blink:
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2023/may/14/fake-british-accents-americans-gen-z

Edit: I mean :lol:
QuoteBrinton Parker, a 30-year-old who lives in the Bay Area, works in tech marketing. The deluge of bad news out of Silicon Valley has her feeling like she's approaching burnout, and she recently asked her manager for support at work.

"I said, 'It's affecting me mental health, innit?'" she explained. "And my boss was like, 'Why did you say it like that?' I think it adds levity to a vulnerable situation. The tougher the conversation, the more Cockney I become."

Young people have always done stupid stuff - we just didn't have social media, so that reporters looking for easy clicks can post about cringy think young people do.

I mean I can remember some of the younger fraternity members in university would use language out of rap/hip-hop, including calling each other "my N-word" (soft r).  It was a different time, but just as stupid for suburban white kids from Winnipeg to be talking like rappers.
Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

Sheilbh

Fair - but the youngest person in that article is 21. Everyone else is 25-32 and apparently doing random British accents :lol:

Edit: Obviously still the time to do something silly but also the stage of life where you're starting to sort some stuff (and yourself) out a bit.

Although I am very glad that they're doing Estuary English and kind of love that Love Island/TOWIE is shifting the Downton Abbey view of Britain. What a shift that is.
Let's bomb Russia!