The Off Topic Topic

[Zanza]

I've said this before, but France is the centre of civilization in the west. It makes me happier thinking that I exist in the same world as places like Marseilles, Florence, Toulouse and Venice.

What?

[Eddie Teach]

Lettow is an Amerifat and thus has no understanding of world geography. 

[Lettow77]

 France is amazing, but it does not hold a monopoly on Europe's greatness. Florence and Venice are worthy of belonging to a far finer state than Italy.

[The Brain]

Florence >>>>>>>>>> wet turd >> France

[Lettow77]

 In any event, I am in a wonderful but unfortunate situation! I am moved past the point of tears, and fairly tremble with euphoria; unbidden and unprovoked happiness will not cease resonating, and I idle on the internet in the early hours of the morning a fortunate and enraptured person.

The misfortune arises in the hour, the solitude of which doubtlessly made this sudden onset possible. I have an engagement at 1:00 in the afternoon, and in the household I am currently residing my strange nocturnal hours are held in dim regard by the the master & mistress of the house, upright folk who are convinced nothing good starts beyond midnight and no good person is asleep past 9. Each hour I stay awake takes me further out of their world, and worse, whispers of time I will be asleep when those I care about are awake. But I am too affected to sleep now, and in any case, it would be a crime-of-crimes to prematurely bid farewell to these precious feelings, which are mercurial and appear so infrequently and unpredictably as to make every instance a treasured event.

[The Brain]

In any event, I am in a wonderful but unfortunate situation! I am moved past the point of tears, and fairly tremble with euphoria; unbidden and unprovoked happiness will not cease resonating, and I idle on the internet in the early hours of the morning a fortunate and enraptured person.

The misfortune arises in the hour, the solitude of which doubtlessly made this sudden onset possible. I have an engagement at 1:00 in the afternoon, and in the household I am currently residing my strange nocturnal hours are held in dim regard by the the master & mistress of the house, upright folk who are convinced nothing good starts beyond midnight and no good person is asleep past 9. Each hour I stay awake takes me further out of their world, and worse, whispers of time I will be asleep when those I care about are awake. But I am too affected to sleep now, and in any case, it would be a crime-of-crimes to prematurely bid farewell to these precious feelings, which are mercurial and appear so infrequently and unpredictably as to make every instance a treasured event.

This.

[Eddie Teach]

no credit

[The Larch]

Just received a letter from Madrid. Top Secret. A lawyer is offering me 40% of €8.750.000. Never have I gotten a mail from any Nigerian prince so I feel it's due, and then in a real letter! I'm very happy and might just call this Marcus fellow, he seems legit.

What? We are the butt of scam letters now? We're truly fucked then, I guess.

[Sheilbh]

Well, my thinking is, for example...we could kick out Mississippi, or Alabama, or West Virginia (or all three)...and I don't think the effect on the U.S. would be that big.  So why is booting Greece causing an "ZOMG EU WILL THE COLAPSE"?

Two reasons, basically contagion/precedent and possible legalities. 

The legal problem is that there's no way in the Treaties for a country to leave the Euro or for the EZ to force them out.  All of the talk of the Greeks being forced out is based on the idea of the EZ cutting off the money but the Greeks could, if they chose, still stay and just default instead.  There is, however, a way for member states to leave the EU.  A working paper of the ECB and the Austrian Finance Minister have said that if Greece leaves the EZ they must also leave the EU.  Presumably they'd then have to re-join including the acquis of eventual Euro membership.  I'm sure if the EZ and the EU generally put their minds to it they could find a work around.  But I worry.  The IMF wanted to do a traditional program with Greece after the first bailout and, under German pressure, were told no it would have to be more severe than that because they wanted to punish the Greeks for this and to deter others from seeking EZ financial support.  If the same motivation goes and the Greeks leave (as the Austrian Minister suggests it could, I think there'd be support from the Finns, Slovaks and Dutch too) then it sort of becomes established that the only way out is through leaving the EU in general.

The other problem is contagion.  There were good reasons not to include an exit clause.  But once that rule's broken unless there's a significant policy response then I think there's real difficulties.  There'll be far more reluctance to lend to countries like Spain, Ireland and Portugal once it's clear that they actually could leave.  Chances are Eurozone banks will deleverage at an even greater rate intensifying the Euro-credit crunch and there'd possibly be bank runs.  If there's a bank run the way to stop that is a strong guarantee to depositors which the periphery can't give without intensifying their debt/death spiral.  Also I think if Greece leaves we'll see real speculators putting pressure on Portugal and Ireland especially.

The other issue is if this leads to a EZ collapse then I think the whole EU project needs to be re-evaluated because it's because it's biggest integrationist project has failed.  This will certainly be the point of the Eurosceptic right over here who will almost certainly demand renegotiation of UK membership.

But you're right an economy worth 2% of EU total shouldn't threaten it.  The American equivalent is Dallas.  But I think that's where we are, I'd largely blame the leadership of the EZ and EU for failing to deal with this comprehensively enough.

[Iormlund]

Well, my thinking is, for example...we could kick out Mississippi, or Alabama, or West Virginia (or all three)...and I don't think the effect on the U.S. would be that big.  So why is booting Greece causing an "ZOMG EU WILL THE COLAPSE"?

For starters, as soon as people or businesses in other shitty states saw Alabama kicked out they would take their money to NY or California, before seeing it converted into a lesser currency in the event that their own state was kicked out as well. Every bank in the dollar periphery would go bust.

[Iormlund]

Also I think if Greece leaves we'll see real speculators putting pressure on Portugal and Ireland especially.

Ireland and Portugal are out of the market, aren't they? I think it'll be Spain and Italy that bear the brunt of the contagion. Maybe Belgium as well.

[Sheilbh]

Ireland and Portugal are out of the market, aren't they? I think it'll be Spain and Italy that bear the brunt of the contagion. Maybe Belgium as well.

They're both meant to return to the markets in 2013 and existing Irish and Portuguese debt's still trading which would give an impression of market sentiment.  I imagine there'd be pressure on large holders of Irish or Portuguese debt too.

[Zanza]

The IMF wanted to do a traditional program with Greece after the first bailout and, under German pressure, were told no it would have to be more severe than that because they wanted to punish the Greeks for this

Germany said it wanted to punish the Greeks?

[Sheilbh]

Sorry, wanted to make Greece hurt:
'"It was almost a mission impossible," says George Papandreou, the luckless Greek premier who negotiated the original bailout and then was forced out by a party revolt last fall.

Mr. Papandreou says that when he asked German Chancellor Angela Merkel for gentler conditions in 2010, she replied that the aid program had to hurt. "We want to make sure nobody else will want this," Ms. Merkel told him.'

[Zanza]

Do you have something from a German source?