Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[The Minsky Moment]

This is going to end up as a Russian victory, won't it?

I mean it depends on what you mean by "victory" - I don't think Russian troops are marching through Kiyev, but I don't think Ukraine is going back to pre-2014 borders (which of course is my preferred outcome).

Russia lost the war two years ago, nothing is likely to change that unless a Trump-led United States shifts from malign neglect to outright support for Putin. Otherwise, the best Russian case is that they may occupy more pieces of a devastated eastern Ukraine, which will further drain already taxed resources. But their strategic position will remain considerably worse then pre-2022.

Of course it is possible for both sides to lose a war and that is looking increasingly likely as an outcome. Ukraine will have cemented its nationhood but at terrible cost.

[crazy canuck]

Yeah guys let's not get all defeatist.

We are not fighting, what does it matter if we talk about the reality of what is happening? 

[crazy canuck]

This is going to end up as a Russian victory, won't it?

I mean it depends on what you mean by "victory" - I don't think Russian troops are marching through Kiyev, but I don't think Ukraine is going back to pre-2014 borders (which of course is my preferred outcome).

Russia lost the war two years ago, nothing is likely to change that unless a Trump-led United States shifts from malign neglect to outright support for Putin. Otherwise, the best Russian case is that they may occupy more pieces of a devastated eastern Ukraine, which will further drain already taxed resources. But their strategic position will remain considerably worse then pre-2022.

Of course it is possible for both sides to lose a war and that is looking increasingly likely as an outcome. Ukraine will have cemented its nationhood but at terrible cost.

What makes you think Russia cannot win? 

[Josquius]

Define win.

Russia will be worse off from the war guaranteed. That is assured.

At the same time it's very possible they could "win" and gain territory.

[Jacob]

We are not fighting, what does it matter if we talk about the reality of what is happening? 

I don't think we have a particularly clear line of sight on the reality of the situation.

[Valmy]

Define win.

Russia will be worse off from the war guaranteed. That is assured.

At the same time it's very possible they could "win" and gain territory.

Yeah well they already are the largest country in the world. It isn't territory they are short of.

[Tonitrus]

Define win.

Russia will be worse off from the war guaranteed. That is assured.

At the same time it's very possible they could "win" and gain territory.

Yeah well they already are the largest country in the world. It isn't territory they are short of.

It is not so much the amount of territory in this case...but where that territory is.

And of course, taking it as means of also denying it to others.

[The Minsky Moment]

On the understanding that Russia's two objectives were:
(1) Either annex Ukraine outright or replace the regime with a pro-Russian, Belarus-style puppet regime, and
(2) Strengthen Russia's geopolitical position towards the West.

Both of those objectives are not reasonably achievable and the war has actually made matters worse. In postwar Ukrainian history, pro-Russia political parties attracted significant political support at various times, but it is hard to imagine that now. The war has strengthened Ukrainian sense of nationhood and separate identity.  It has also reinforced NATO, spurred Germany and other members to significantly raise spending, and added the critical northern piece to the alliance that had been missing, and whose presence creates enormous strategic headaches for Russia.

If winning is simply defined as annexing pieces of territory like a Paradox map game, then sure that is within Russia's reach. But it will be a weakened crippled Russia at the far end.