Militarization of South China Sea & East China Sea. Six Wars Necessary

[grumbler]

Well Chinese have more ancestors than many Americans. :hillbilly:

  Well-played.

[jimmy olsen]

Just more targets.

http://www.smh.com.au/world/south-china-sea-dispute-chinese-missiles-in-paracels-says-fox-news-20160217-gmw6zl.html#ixzz40P5A0aSV

     South China Sea dispute: Chinese missiles in Paracels

Date February 17, 2016 - 4:09PM  176 reading now
Philip Wen and Lindsay Murdoch

Beijing: New satellite images appear to show China has deployed surface-to-air missiles on an island in the flashpoint waters of the South China Sea.

Both a US defence official and a statement by the Taiwanese government confirmed the apparent deployment of eight missile launchers and a radar system on Woody Island in the past week.

The move will further escalate tensions in the disputed waters.

"Interested parties should work together to maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea region and refrain from taking any unilateral measures that would increase tensions," Taiwanese defence spokesman Major-General David Lo said on Wednesday, declining to give further details.

A satellite image taken by the private company ImageSat International, dated February 14, showed the presence of the equipment, whereas the same area looked to be empty in an image dated February 3.

The US cable television network Fox News cited a US official as saying the images appeared to show the HQ-9 air defence system, which had a range of about 200 kilometres and could therefore threaten nearby planes.

A US Navy destroyer sailed close to the disputed Paracel Island chain, which includes Woody Island, in a "freedom of navigation" exercise late last month. China branded that action "highly dangerous and irresponsible" and accused the US of being "the biggest cause of militarisation in the South China Sea".

China, Taiwan and Vietnam have competing claims in the area and the US has objected to any "militarising" of the islands.

US President Barack Obama concluded a two-day summit with South-east Asian leaders on Tuesday promising US support to the ASEAN nations to counter China's expanding claims and declaring that freedom of navigation must be upheld and lawful commerce should not be impeded.

"The US will continue to fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows," he said. "We will support the right of other countries to do the same."

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was due to address the media in Beijing on Wednesday with his Australian counterpart, Julie Bishop, who is in the capital for annual strategic talks.

Ms Bishop said before the trip that she intended to question China about its activities in the South China Sea.

"What we have maintained publicly and privately to China and other claimants in the South China Sea is that we urge all parties to cease reclamation and construction work," Ms Bishop said during a preceding trip to Tokyo on Monday. "We note that [Chinese] President Xi [Jinping] said in Washington that China did not intend to militarise the constructions in the South China Sea and we hold China to that."

The Diplomat also reported last week that China's South China Sea island-building had expanded into the Paracels, which are also claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan.

The report has not been confirmed.

Images that were separately obtained appeared to show dredging and filling at two new sites in the Chinese-held island chain and the construction of a helicopter base.

China has already constructed airstrips and naval berths capable of use for military purposes on the islands.

Confirmation of the deployment of missile launchers came as the US and ASEAN issued a joint statement at the California summit that called for "maritime security" but did not specifically mention the South China Sea, indicating division among regional countries on how to counter China's assertiveness.

Countries like the Philippines and Vietnam favour a more aggressive approach while other nations like Cambodia and Laos, which have closer ties with Beijing, are reluctant to directly challenge China's behaviour.

China late last year provoked condemnation when it landed civilian planes on an artificial island where it has built infrastructure that can accommodate military aircraft.

Vietnam has accused China of towing a $1 billion oil rig into disputed waters in a potential rerun of a stand-off that sparked violent anti-Chinese riots in Vietnam in 2014.

The United States has obtained final approval to expand its military presence in the Philippines and has begun making spy flights over the region in Boeing P-8A Poseidon aircraft based in Singapore.

Carlyle Thayer, an expert on the South China Sea from Australia's Defence Force Academy, said the deployment of the HQ-9 missile system raises the stakes for future US maritime patrols.

The system is capable of threatening carrier-based planes coming to the assistance of any US Navy warship confronted by China during freedom of navigation exercises, he said.

Professor Thayer said the deployment of such a sophisticated and lethal air defence system was no doubt in response to US aerial activities and the patrol near Triton island. The deployment was also a demonstration that at short notice China can deploy similar systems to other disputed islands on the pretext of a threat from the United States.

Professor Thayer said that until now concerns of the US and other countries had focused on artificial island development by China.

But China first constructed an airstrip on Woody Island in 1990 than can accommodate fighter jets.

Existing facilities on the island include naval docks, precision approach radar, a fuel depot and military facilities, including troop accommodation.

Rory Medcalf, head of the National Security College at the Australian National University, said the reports of China placing surface-to-air missile batteries on Woody Islands were "sadly not surprising".

"This will further militarise the tensions in the South China Sea. It reinforces the view that China intends to exert growing control in these international waters, including potentially by declaring an air defence identification zone.

"It is also against the spirit, if not the letter, of Xi Jinping's assurance last year that China was not putting weapons on the artificial islands it has made."

Professor Medcalf said the move showed China did not take diplomatic efforts on the disputed territories seriously.

"Technically, Woody Island is a real island, not an artificial one, but China's possession of it is disputed by Vietnam and Taiwan.

"China seems to be putting missiles on a disputed South China Sea island while going slow on negotiating a code of conduct with ASEAN that would ban precisely this kind of thing. This is a sign that China does not take such diplomacy seriously."

[Jacob]

Just more targets.

They failed in Canada, so instead they're trying for the South China Sea? I dunno, I don't think it'll work out for them.

[jimmy olsen]

Just more targets.

They failed in Canada, so instead they're trying for the South China Sea? I dunno, I don't think it'll work out for them.

[jimmy olsen]

The war grows ever closer.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china-islands-idUSKCN0YV01U

Japan protests after Chinese warship sails near disputed East China Sea islands

Japan summoned the Chinese ambassador early on Thursday to express concern after a Chinese navy ship sailed close to what Japan considers its territorial waters in the East China Sea for the first time, increasing tensions over the disputed area.

Japan said a Chinese frigate sailed within 24 miles (38 kms) of the contested territory, the islands known as the Senkaku in Japan and the Diaoyu in China, shortly after midnight.

Japan's Vice Foreign Minister Akitaka Saiki summoned the Chinese ambassador in Tokyo at around 2 a.m. (01:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday) to "express a serious concern," the government said in a statement.

Japanese and Chinese coastguard vessels frequently face off around the islands as both sides press their claims. Until now neither has dispatched warships to nearby waters, because doing so would inflame tensions and remove a buffer against potential armed conflict.

"We are worried that this action raises tensions to a higher level," Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said at a regular press briefing in Tokyo.

"Related ministries are working together to deal with this and we will work closely with the U.S.," Suga said.

China's Defence Ministry said on Thursday it was looking into the reports that one of its navy ships sailed close to the disputed islands, adding its navy had every right to operate in Chinese waters.

"Chinese naval ships sailing through waters our country has jurisdiction over is reasonable and legal. No other country has the right to make thoughtless remarks about this," it said in a statement sent to Reuters.

While the U.S. has not endorsed Tokyo's territorial claim to the islands, which lie about 220 kms (135 miles) northeast of Taiwan, it has said the Japanese-controlled territory falls under its security treaty with Tokyo that obligates Washington to defend Japan against attack.

"We are aware of the reports and have been in touch with the Japanese government," U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Colin Willett told reporters by telephone from Washington.

"Until I have a little more detail, I can't really comment on exactly what (Washington's) reaction is," she added.

The Chinese frigate stayed in the waters around the Senkaku/Diaoyu waters for about an hour before sailing toward the Chinese coast.

Countries can police their contiguous zone, adjacent to the disputed territory, for customs and immigration violations, but can't prevent passage by other nations' vessels.

Complicating the situation for Tokyo, three Russian naval vessels also sailed close to the islands at around the same time as the Chinese warship, raising concern in Japan of a coordinated show of force by Beijing and Moscow.

Russia and Japan are locked in a separate territorial dispute over the return of islands seized by Moscow at the end of World War Two.

Suga said the government was investigating to uncover any link between the movements of Chinese and Russian vessels.

The incidents come as Japan, the United States and India prepare to begin a major joint naval exercise, dubbed Malabar,

from Friday in the nearby Western Pacific.

As China pushes its claims in the neighboring South China Sea, which Japanese Minister of Defence Gen Nakatani described last week as "unilateral and coercive," Tokyo and Washington are worried Beijing will look to extend its influence into the East China Sea and beyond.

Japan's island chain there, including Okinawa which hosts the biggest concentration of U.S. military personnel in Asia, stands in the way of unfettered access to those seas. Japan's military is reinforcing the islands with radar stations and anti-ship missile batteries.

(Reporting by Tetsushi Kajimoto and Nobuhiro Kubo in TOKYO, Ben Blanchard in BEIJING and Matt Siegel in SYDNEY; Writing by Tim Kelly; Editing by Paul Tait and Michael Perry)

[Monoriu]

I just don't think war is on the table at all.  There is no gurantee that China will win any war over these islands.  In fact their chances aren't good, and they know this.  Military defeat will mean that the regime will be destabilised, see Falkland islands war and the effect on the Argentinian government.  That's the last thing Beijing wants.  The purpose of these disputes is to strengthen the regime.  Going to war will be a huge gamble that they don't need and can't afford.  They won't risk it. 

[Tamas]

I agree Mono but you can't 100% control these situations.

e.g. just before WW1 broke out, pretty much all beligerents thought it would NOT end up being WW1, as long as they push hard enough and posture enough.

[Archy]

What Tamas said.
Escalatio in such a situation can happen rather quickly unfortunately

[CountDeMoney]

China does not do brinksmanship well.

[LaCroix]

did any of the great powers enter WW1 thinking they had "not good" chances of winning?

[grumbler]

did any of the great powers enter WW1 thinking they had "not good" chances of winning?

Absolutely. AH knew they would lose any war that involved the other Great powers.  That was the whole reason for their brinksmanship over Serbia - AH knew they had to nip the Serbian situation while they had the pretext (not even Russia, they believed, would support the assassins of Royals - Russia had experienced that themselves).

[LaCroix]

makes sense

does china have time on its side / think it has time on its side?

[Drakken]

Absolutely. AH knew they would lose any war that involved the other Great powers.  That was the whole reason for their brinksmanship over Serbia - AH knew they had to nip the Serbian situation while they had the pretext (not even Russia, they believed, would support the assassins of Royals - Russia had experienced that themselves).

That is what Wilhelm II wanted AH to do when he gave them their blank check: AH had to beat the iron while it was hot, and strike Serbia now.

Except that, rather than to listen to Wilhelm II (who for once was right on the mark in his assessment) and Bethmann-Hollweg's instructions to invade Serbia immediately if only to stop in Belgrade and put the Russians in front of a fait accompli before for the inevitable peace conference, AH instead took their sweet time with as excuse that its soldiers were in the middle of harvest and had to be brought back to their barracks. Then they had Franz Josef sign the ultimatum that made AH look both unreasonable and conceited, all the while giving Russia time to bring in their standing armies toward the Austrian border, which understandably alarmed the Kaiser.

[Razgovory]

At GenCon I played a National Decision making game.  It had three factions, Germany, AH, and Russia (we each had table and couldn't talk to members of other factions without a conference) and started with the July crisis.  I was the foreign minister of Germany.  I tried to set up a scenario where there would be an Austrian punitive expedition that would would install a different king closer to Russia.  Everyone agreed to it until the last moment Russia pulled out.  Germany never game Austria a blank check (but did supply food and fuel) and Austria launched their attack immediately before full mobilization.  Belgrade was taken and Serbia surrendered before Russia finished mobilizing(or Austria for that matter).  Germany never mobilized and as result France never mobilized (France was played by the referees as the French President was away on a trip to Russia at the time).  WWI sort of sputtered out with the successful defense of Lemberg with the Russian throwing it's partially mobilized army into Galacia rather then Prussia..  It was a lot of fun.

[jimmy olsen]

If war must come, let it come sooner rather than later.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/06/16/at-scarborough-shoal-china-is-playing-with-fire-retired-admiral/

At Scarborough Shoal, China Is Playing With Fire: Retired Admiral
BY DAN DE LUCEJUNE 16, 2016 - 5:45 PM

China would risk a potential military confrontation with the United States if it started dredging on a disputed shoal off the coast of the Philippines, retired U.S. Navy Adm. Dennis Blair said Thursday. And in a clash with the United States and its allies in the Philippines, Beijing almost certainly would lose, he said.

"If the Chinese push there, I think there's going to be trouble," said Blair, who once oversaw U.S. forces in the region as the former four-star head of Pacific Command. "And it's trouble that the United States and the Philippines are going to win because the military situation is set up that way."

To assert its power in the South China Sea and back up its expansionist territorial claims, Beijing has sent out fishing fleets in contested waters and built up artificial islands atop reefs in the past two year years, constructing airstrips and deep-water harbors that can accommodate naval ships.


In a growing rivalry over the strategic waterway, both China and the United States have stepped up patrols of naval ships, reconnaissance planes, and fighter jets in the disputed waters. The deployments have amounted to "shadow boxing" between the two powers and the risk of conflict has remained relatively low, said Blair, who also served as director of national intelligence during President Barack Obama's first term.

But unlike the disputed Spratly Islands, which are the subject of multiple rival claims from China and several other Southeast Asian countries, the Scarborough Shoal effectively pits Beijing directly against Manila.

With the shoal located less than 150 miles from the Philippines, but 500 miles from China, experts believe Manila has a strong legal case in the disputed claims. The stakes are high as the Philippines has a mutual defense treaty with the United States that could possibly be invoked if Manila sought to defend what it considers sovereign territory.

"I would be surprised if the United States hasn't told China it's a shoal too far for them," Blair told a group of reporters at a briefing at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, where he serves as CEO. "It hasn't been said publicly, but I hope we have done so privately."

Tensions rose this week at the shoal after Chinese Coast Guard vessels prevented a Philippine nationalist group from planting a Filipino flag on one of the rock outcroppings.

The shoal is one of many maritime disputes at the center of a legal case the Philippines has brought against China before an international court in The Hague. The Permanent Court of Arbitration is due to rule this month on the case, but China has already vowed to ignore the tribunal's decision, which is expected to favor Manila.

If China succeeded in taking over Scarborough, it could build airstrips there and enable Beijing to draw a "strategic triangle" linking reefs and islands in the Paracel Islands to the west and the Spratlys to the south, effectively fencing off the South China Sea, experts say. That could pave the way for Beijing to declare a possible air defense identification zone in the area, demanding commercial and military aircraft seek permission before flying through it.

Allowing China to seize complete control of the shoal and launch land reclamation work would represent a "geopolitical loss" for Washington that would be unacceptable, Blair said.

For the United States, the Scarborough Shoal represents "at least a pink line, if not a red line," Blair said.

If a clash erupted, China would find itself in a difficult position, hundreds of miles from its military bases. Any Chinese aircraft would need to be refueled just to arrive at the location.

"From everything I know militarily, that would be a bad place for China to pick a fight," he said.

The feud over Scarborough Shoal flared up in 2012, and the United States tried to mediate a deal to defuse the argument. The Philippines complied with the deal and withdrew its ships, but the Chinese never pulled back their vessels and continue to deploy ships at the mouth of the shoal's bay.

The United States has conveyed its solidarity with the Philippines through a number of symbolic steps in recent months, but has stopped short of publicly announcing any red lines.

Asked if the United States had issued a warning to China not to undertake land reclamation at Scarborough Shoal, State Department spokesperson Anna Richey-Allen said the United States regularly holds discussions with Chinese officials about developments in the South China Sea.

"Beyond that, I cannot comment on the specific content of our diplomatic engagements," Richey-Allen told Foreign Policy.

"Since 2012, Chinese Coast Guard vessels have sought to block fishing access to the area, restricting the long-standing commercial practices of others. We are concerned that such actions exacerbate tensions in the region and are counterproductive," she added.

In April, U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter made a point of stepping foot on an American aircraft carrier, the USS John C. Stennis, as it patrolled waters west of the Philippines. He then paid a visit to the annual Balikatan exercise, which involved 5,000 troops from the United States, 3,500 troops from the Philippines, and 80 forces from Australia and included an amphibious operation on a hypothetical South China Sea island.

After the exercise, the Pentagon sent out A-10 Thunderbolt warplanes to conduct patrols over Scarborough Shoal.

The United States also has announced plans to rotate troops and aircraft at five bases across the Philippines under a new military cooperation agreement, marking a dramatic about-face in relations as Manila kicked out all American forces more than two decades ago.

Before the ruling from the international court on Manila's complaint, China has been lobbying other countries for support and launched a public relations campaign to make its case. It apparently scored a diplomatic victory this week when Southeast Asian countries backed off a statement critical of Beijing over its policies in the South China Sea.

The original statement issued Tuesday from foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations underlined the importance of freedom of navigation in the waterway and expressed concern over developments that had "eroded trust and confidence." But Malaysia's foreign ministry later retracted the statement without offering an explanation.