NCAA Football 2015

[alfred russel]

Northwestern is 10-2?  How the hell did that happen?

Pat Fitzgerald is a good coach, his team is solid, and the Big Ten West blows.

[dps]

Interesting question, with the caveat that UF won't beat Alabama. UF doesn't have the offense, and while it has a great defense, is vulnerable to the run. The more likely scenario may be: what if North Carolina beats Clemson?

In my opinion it will be that one loss conference champ who just bumped off the #1 team. So North Carolina.

That could be. But I think UNC gets passed over for Stanford--and if they do it is justice imo.

UNC out of conference schedule: South Carolina, NC A&T, Illinois, Delaware
Stanford out of conference schedule: Northwestern, UCF, Notre Dame

First, take note that Stanford only plays 3 out of conference games, because the Pac 12 plays a 9 game schedule. That should be a big bonus to them. Also, while UCF is putrid this year, they are an FBS team that won the Fiesta Bowl a couple years ago, and both Northwestern and Notre Dame are 10-2 power conference teams.

UNC played 2 FCS teams, and the playoff committee took note--they cited this as a reason they ranked them down in the polls earlier this year. Neither of the other two teams are anything to write home about--between the two of them they won 8 games this year.

So Stanford wins the Pac 12, which on balance is generally considered better than the ACC, and schedules a monster out of conference schedule on top of playing an extra conference game.

That should offset an extra loss, considering UNC played one of the worst out of conference schedules you can set up, plus even played in the really weak side of the ACC and didn't draw FSU or Clemson (or Louisville) in the regular season (ie, the ACC teams with a pulse).

Yeah, NC has 2 problems.  The first is the 2 FCS teams on their schedule, as you alluded to.  The other is that their 1 loss is a bad loss--South Carolina was a bad team this year.  Nobody else in the conversation really has a bad loss.

[alfred russel]

Also, they just haven't beaten anyone. The best team they beat is: Miami, at 8-4 (Pittsburgh is also 8-4). That is a really thin resume to get into the playoff with a loss.

[Eddie Teach]

Well sure, but in this hypothetical they've also beat 12-0 Clemson.

[MadImmortalMan]

Well sure, but in this hypothetical they've also beat 12-0 Clemson.

Which South Carolina nearly did this weekend.

[alfred russel]

Well sure, but in this hypothetical they've also beat 12-0 Clemson.

Yeah, so the committee will have to weigh which is more impressive. Stanford going 11-2 against a schedule with the following ranked teams (based on current AP poll): Notre Dame, Northwestern, Oregon, Utah, USC (2x), and no FCS teams.

Or UNC going 12-1 against a schedule with only one ranked team: Clemson, and 2 FCS teams.

[sbr]

Interesting question, with the caveat that UF won't beat Alabama. UF doesn't have the offense, and while it has a great defense, is vulnerable to the run. The more likely scenario may be: what if North Carolina beats Clemson?

In my opinion it will be that one loss conference champ who just bumped off the #1 team. So North Carolina.

That could be. But I think UNC gets passed over for Stanford--and if they do it is justice imo.

UNC out of conference schedule: South Carolina, NC A&T, Illinois, Delaware
Stanford out of conference schedule: Northwestern, UCF, Notre Dame

First, take note that Stanford only plays 3 out of conference games, because the Pac 12 plays a 9 game schedule. That should be a big bonus to them. Also, while UCF is putrid this year, they are an FBS team that won the Fiesta Bowl a couple years ago, and both Northwestern and Notre Dame are 10-2 power conference teams.

UNC played 2 FCS teams, and the playoff committee took note--they cited this as a reason they ranked them down in the polls earlier this year. Neither of the other two teams are anything to write home about--between the two of them they won 8 games this year.

So Stanford wins the Pac 12, which on balance is generally considered better than the ACC, and schedules a monster out of conference schedule on top of playing an extra conference game.

That should offset an extra loss, considering UNC played one of the worst out of conference schedules you can set up, plus even played in the really weak side of the ACC and didn't draw FSU or Clemson (or Louisville) in the regular season (ie, the ACC teams with a pulse).

Yeah, NC has 2 problems.  The first is the 2 FCS teams on their schedule, as you alluded to.  The other is that their 1 loss is a bad loss--South Carolina was a bad team this year.  Nobody else in the conversation really has a bad loss.

Oklahoma has a terribad loss.

Sorry about not cropping on phone.

[Eddie Teach]

Re: FCS teams. Who cares? Everybody has a couple free wins, whether they're teams you should beat by 20 or teams you should beat by 50 doesn't matter over much.

Looking over Stanford's record, I see a lot of very close games. I'm not so sure eking out a 2 point victory over Notre Dame makes up for an extra loss. Also, NC's loss was the first game of the season, so they'd have won 12 straight. That should count for something too.

[alfred russel]

Re: FCS teams. Who cares? Everybody has a couple free wins, whether they're teams you should beat by 20 or teams you should beat by 50 doesn't matter over much.

I don't think a Pac 12 opponent can ever be scheduled as a free win. I'd say Stanford has one free win: UCF. And arguably UCF was a bit dangerous at the start of the year, before they quit.

[Eddie Teach]

I don't think a Pac 12 opponent can ever be scheduled as a free win. I'd say Stanford has one free win: UCF. And arguably UCF was a bit dangerous at the start of the year, before they quit.

Ok, but if we just throw those games out, 10-1 is still better than 11-2.

[alfred russel]

I don't think a Pac 12 opponent can ever be scheduled as a free win. I'd say Stanford has one free win: UCF. And arguably UCF was a bit dangerous at the start of the year, before they quit.

Ok, but if we just throw those games out, 10-1 is still better than 11-2.

If the committee followed that logic, or no one would want to play a 9 game conference schedule or schedule anyone decent out of conference, to maximize chances of getting in the playoffs. Stanford has played the 16th ranked schedule, while North Carolina's is at 63. At a certain point, such a disparity in schedule needs to compensate for a 1 loss difference in record.

[MadImmortalMan]

Balanced by the coaches who view wins uber alles, and you can understand why they feel that way. 

[Eddie Teach]

If the committee followed that logic, or no one would want to play a 9 game conference schedule or schedule anyone decent out of conference, to maximize chances of getting in the playoffs.

Perhaps. If North Carolina had followed that guideline, they'd be undefeated now and we wouldn't be having this discussion.

[Valmy]

Oklahoma has a terribad loss.

Yes. Yes they do 

But how shitty is this season for Texas that even when they upset their national title contender arch-rival they did not even succeed in ruining OU's season?

[alfred russel]

I think firing Mark Richt was a bad move.

Realistically, how often do you expect a good coach to win the SEC East at Georgia? Say 1 year in 3?

So if winning half of SEC Championship games, that means an SEC title 1 year in 6?

Mark Richt was 6 for 15 for SEC East titles, and 2 for 15 in SEC titles.

He was 9-3 this year--in a year they didn't have a good QB, although he has produced a ton of them in recent years.

Supposedly Kirby Smart is going to be the guy at UGA, but coordinators without head coaching experience are a crapshoot--the guy basically has the resume that Richt did when Richt left FSU, only Richt has proven to be a competent head coach. Maybe he will be the next Nick Saban, but I think it is more likely he is the next Will Muschamp.