Turkey's Presidential Takeover?

[Solmyr]

Wasn't Turkey in better shape than Hungary ever since 1300?

[Valmy]

Wasn't Turkey in better shape than Hungary ever since 1300?

Hungary had a good run 1699 - 1918

[Syt]

If true, this is obviously the work of a foreign conspiracy against Turkey.

Also, if true, it means Turkey is not as bad as it seemed - the ability of the ruling party (no matter how nasty) to lose power in peaceful democratic elections means the system is working.

Swedish election observers was threatened and forced to leave voting stations earlier today. So only somewhat peaceful. What they had observed earlier was widespread fraud and voter intimidation. So only somewhat democratic.

But is it more democratic than pre-WW1 USA?

[Zanza]

If true, this is obviously the work of a foreign conspiracy against Turkey.

Also, if true, it means Turkey is not as bad as it seemed - the ability of the ruling party (no matter how nasty) to lose power in peaceful democratic elections means the system is working.

They will probably still form a minority government as the opposition parties hate each other. And then call new elections in a few months...

[Zanza]

I hear a lot of cars driving through the city honking at 10pm. I wonder if that's Turks celebrating. 

[Razgovory]

Also, if true, it means Turkey is not as bad as it seemed - the ability of the ruling party (no matter how nasty) to lose power in peaceful democratic elections means the system is working.

Raz was right!

Imagine that.

[Valmy]

Imagine that.

[alfred russel]

Also, if true, it means Turkey is not as bad as it seemed - the ability of the ruling party (no matter how nasty) to lose power in peaceful democratic elections means the system is working.

Raz was right!

Maybe premature to declare that.

[Syt]

Possible scenarios at this point: minority government by AKP (and possibly early elections), or a coalition of AKP and MHP (which has gained votes to reach 16%).

The MHP used to be described as a neo-fascist party[13][16] linked to extremist and violent militias.[17] Since the 1990s it has, under the leadership of Devlet Bahçeli, gradually moderated its programme, turning from ethnic to cultural nationalism and conservatism and stressing the unitary nature of the Turkish state. Notably, it has moved from strict secularism to a more pro-Islamic stance, and has – at least in public statements – accepted the rules of parliamentary democracy. Some scholars doubt the sincerity and credibility of this turn and suspect the party of still pursuing a fascist agenda behind a more moderate and pro-democratic façade. Nevertheless, MHP's mainstream overture has strongly increased its appeal to voters and it has grown to the country's third-strongest party,[18] continuously represented in the National Assembly since 2007 with voter shares well above the 10% threshold.

[Liep]

Possible scenarios at this point: minority government by AKP (and possibly early elections), or a coalition of AKP and MHP (which has gained votes to reach 16%).

The MHP used to be described as a neo-fascist party[13][16] linked to extremist and violent militias.[17] Since the 1990s it has, under the leadership of Devlet Bahçeli, gradually moderated its programme, turning from ethnic to cultural nationalism and conservatism and stressing the unitary nature of the Turkish state. Notably, it has moved from strict secularism to a more pro-Islamic stance, and has – at least in public statements – accepted the rules of parliamentary democracy. Some scholars doubt the sincerity and credibility of this turn and suspect the party of still pursuing a fascist agenda behind a more moderate and pro-democratic façade. Nevertheless, MHP's mainstream overture has strongly increased its appeal to voters and it has grown to the country's third-strongest party,[18] continuously represented in the National Assembly since 2007 with voter shares well above the 10% threshold.

Seems on par with the rest of that part of Europe.

[The Minsky Moment]

If true, this is obviously the work of a foreign conspiracy against Turkey.

Also, if true, it means Turkey is not as bad as it seemed - the ability of the ruling party (no matter how nasty) to lose power in peaceful democratic elections means the system is working.

The other great development is secular Turks crossing over to vote for a traditional ethnic Kurdish party.

[Syt]

Surprisingly soft tones from Erdogan:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/08/turkey-may-face-fresh-poll-as-recep-tayyip-erdogan-is-snubbed-by-voters

Erdoğan concedes no party has mandate after shock Turkish vote

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Turkey has said the country is entering an uncertain period of coalition government after his 13-year-old reign of solid majorities for the Justice and Development party (AKP) was ended by a stunning voter backlash against his increasingly authoritarian rule.

"Our nation's opinion is above everything else," Erdoğan said in his first public reaction to the parliamentary elections on Sunday that represented a watershed by shaving nearly 10 points from the governing party and putting a liberal pro-Kurdish party in parliament in Ankara for the first time.

Erdoğan's conciliatory tone contrasted sharply with the highly polarising language he used during the campaign.

He said no party had won a mandate to govern alone and urged all political parties to work towards preserving an environment of confidence and stability in the country.

Coalition talks will dominate the coming weeks in Turkey after voters snubbed the president's plans to change the constitution and extend his grip on power, delivering the biggest blow to the AKP since it swept to power in 2002.

The election result wrecked Erdoğan's ambition of rewriting the constitution to establish himself as an all-powerful executive president, while the country's large Kurdish minority has been granted its biggest voice ever in national politics.

"I believe the results, which do not give the opportunity to any party to form a single-party government, will be assessed healthily and realistically by every party."

The election breakthrough for the leftist HDP, a new party largely representing the Kurds but also encompassing liberals nationally, was greeted with wild celebrations in the Kurdish-majority city of Diyarbakir in south-eastern Turkey. Cars paraded through the city with drivers honking and people hanging out from windows making 'V' signs as occasional gunshots were fired into the air.

The results will give the Kurds – who, with 20% of Turkey's population, are the country's biggest minority – true representation in parliament. The HDP surpassed the steep 10% threshold for entering parliament to take more than 12% of the vote and around 80 seats in the 550-strong chamber. The party's result also denied Erdoğan's AKP its majority.

The 10% hurdle, dating from the military-authored constitution of 1980, had been intended in part to diminish Kurdish representation in the parliament.

Sunday's vote was the first time in four general elections to see a fall in support for Erdoğan. While the AKP comfortably managed to secure the biggest portion of the vote, its 41% share of seats represents a sharp drop from its performance the 2011 elections, when it won nearly half the national vote. For the first time since 2002, the AKP will need to form a coalition government or call new elections.

It remains unclear who will be a likely partner for the AKP after the most likely candidate, the rightwing Nationalist Movement party (MHP) ruled out the possibility of a coalition.

According to the state-run Anadolu agency, the party leader, Devlet Bahceli, said the party was "ready to be a main opposition party" against an AKP-led coalition or minority government during a speech from party headquarters in Ankara early on Monday.

"Nobody has a right to drag Turkey into [AKP] minority and some circles' scenarios," said Bahceli. "A snap election will happen whenever it will happen." He welcomed the election results, with his party gaining 31 seats in parliament.

Selahattin Demirtas, co-chair of the leftist HDP, and surprise star of this election, also dismissed any possibility of a coalition with the AKP.

"We will not form a coalition with the AKP. We stand behind our words. We will be in parliament as a strong opposition," Demirtas said in a press conference in Istanbul on Sunday night. He added that the election results had clearly put an end to all plans of an executive presidency.

"As of this moment, the debate on the presidency, the debate about dictatorship, has come to an end in Turkey. Turkey has returned from the edge of a cliff," he said.

Pro-government newspapers on Monday morning were already calling for early elections. "The ballot box revealed the ballot box", read the headline of the conservateive daily Yeni Safak.

Burhan Kuzu, the AK party deputy and head of the parliamentary constitution commission, said snap elections were inevitable. "No government will emerge from this scenario. Not even a coalition," he told BBC Türkçe. "Early elections look inevitable." He added that the election results reflected the weakness of the parliamentary system.

"The parliamentary system is a curse for the whole world. In Turkey only majority governments ever worked, coalitions always destroyed it." He said that the only solution would be an executive presidency.

New elections could be called any time in the next 45 days.

Official results based on 99.9% of votes counted put the AKP in the lead, followed by the Republican People's party (CHP) on 25%, the MHP on 16.5% and the HDP in fourth place with 13%. Turnout was 86%. According to official projections, the AKP will have 258 seats in the 550-seat parliament, CHP 132, MHP 81 and HDP 79.

The AKP has dominated Turkish politics since it first came to power in 2002, but has suffered from a dip in economic growth and controversy over Erdoğan's perceived authoritarian tendencies.

The results wreck Erdoğan's dream of agreeing a new constitution to switch Turkey from a parliamentary to a presidential system that he had made a fundamental issue in the campaign. Such a change would have required a two-thirds majority in the parliament.

Speaking from the balcony of AKP headquarters in Ankara – the traditional venue for the party's victory speeches – the prime minister and party leader, Ahmet Davutoglu, sought to put a brave face on the results. "The winner of the election is again the AKP, there's no doubt," he said, pledging to ensure Turkey's stability. But he added: "Our people's decision is final. It's above everything and we will act in line with it."

But the atmosphere outside the AKP's headquarters was muted. Several hundred supporters chanted for Erdoğan, the party's founder, but there was little sign of the huge crowds that gathered after past election victories.

Erdogan's divide-and-rule strategy of rallying his religious-conservative base has led to increasing polarisation in Turkey, and in some cases to violence. Erdoğan had repeatedly lashed out at the HDP and its charismatic leader Demirtaş before the elections.

The HDP ran on a platform defending the rights of ethnic minorities, women, and lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender people - forming an electoral coalition between the Kurdish minority in Turkey's south-east and liberals in Istanbul and elsewhere.

"This result shows that this country has had enough. Enough of Erdoğan and his anger," said Seyran Demir, a 47-year-old who was among the thousands who gathered in the streets around the HDP's provincial headquarters in Diyarbakir. "I am so full of joy that I can't speak properly."

"It is a carnival night," said 47-year-old Huseyin Durmaz, a Kurd. "We no longer trust the AKP," he said.

Another record was set by the number of women MPs set to take a seat in parliament after an unofficial tally estimated a total of 96 female parliamentarians securing a place in the Turkish grand national assembly – a record high and up from 79 in 2011.

[KRonn]

I read something else on this earlier. I guess it was quite a shocker to Erdogan's AKP party. IMO it's good as it puts a serious hold on his taking of even more power in the country.

[Tamas]

I read something else on this earlier. I guess it was quite a shocker to Erdogan's AKP party. IMO it's good as it puts a serious hold on his taking of even more power in the country.

Yes it will mean more vile and forceful populism backed by the whole state apparatus firmly controlled by Erdogan. I find the situation vaguely similar to when recently Orban lost his 2/3rd majority and their popularity plumetted in general. That's how they stopped the fall, and there are two practical differences between Orban and Erdogan: islamism, and Erdogan is less unhealthy for the economy.

[Razgovory]

I read something else on this earlier. I guess it was quite a shocker to Erdogan's AKP party. IMO it's good as it puts a serious hold on his taking of even more power in the country.

Yes it will mean more vile and forceful populism backed by the whole state apparatus firmly controlled by Erdogan. I find the situation vaguely similar to when recently Orban lost his 2/3rd majority and their popularity plumetted in general. That's how they stopped the fall, and there are two practical differences between Orban and Erdogan: islamism, and Erdogan is less unhealthy for the economy.

While his economics are vile, they are your sort of vile.  Liberalization and deregulation.