May 2015 UK General Election Campaign.

[Warspite]

UKIP looking like the UK's third party in national vote share if not at all in seats. With a heavily weakened Liberal Democrat party, Cameron will be more vulnerable than before to restive Tory backbenchers.

The City won't be so thrilled with the result when it becomes obvious the spectre of UK exit from the EU and dissolution of the UK is suddenly much more likely.

Why can't Labour form a coalition government? Aside from UKIP, the Tories seem to stand ideologically alone.

Not enough seats, even bringing in the rump Liberal Democrats, SNP, and others - based on the exit poll, of course.

[Agelastus]

UKIP looking like the UK's third party in national vote share if not at all in seats. With a heavily weakened Liberal Democrat party, Cameron will be more vulnerable than before to restive Tory backbenchers.

The City won't be so thrilled with the result when it becomes obvious the spectre of UK exit from the EU and dissolution of the UK is suddenly much more likely.

Why can't Labour form a coalition government? Aside from UKIP, the Tories seem to stand ideologically alone.

Because the lesson that Westminster learned from the 1880s to the 1970s was that you cannot work with a Nationalist Party of any stripe. Not for any length of time over a few months anyway.

Not to mention that if I was Labour I'd be a little bothered by the SNP's attitude; it's not been that long since they were propped up in Scotland's parliament by the Tories yet now they're demonising the Tories to all and sundry. So the party that's stealing most of the Scottish seats you were relying on for a majority is also showing either a truly vindictive side or demonstrating a staggeringly short political memory. Not a partner I'd want to work with for five years, even with just a confidence and supply agreement.

Besides, if that Exit Poll was right not even the "Rainbow Coalition" option could put enough votes together to kick out a Tory minority government since said Rainbow wouldn't include UKIP or the DUP.

[Warspite]

The City won't be so thrilled with the result when it becomes obvious the spectre of UK exit from the EU and dissolution of the UK is suddenly much more likely.

Isn't that putting it a bit strongly?

Not really. I think the UK would vote to stay in the EU in a referendum. But I'm talking about uncertainty; a eurosceptic dominated Parliament and UKIP with such a large share of the national vote indicates a high degree of uncertainty about continued UK membership as well as the whole issue of the renegotiation.

[celedhring]

RUMOURS GEORGE GALLOWAY WILL LOSE HIS SEAT!

BBC Radio Leeds @BBCLeeds  ·  7m 7 minutes ago
Bradford Council have reported Respect's George Galloway to the police for allegedly breaking election law [via @dinakarim] #ge2015

[Agelastus]

RUMOURS GEORGE GALLOWAY WILL LOSE HIS SEAT!

BBC Radio Leeds @BBCLeeds  ·  7m 7 minutes ago
Bradford Council have reported Respect's George Galloway to the police for allegedly breaking election law [via @dinakarim] #ge2015

Tonight just gets better and better...

[Warspite]

Do not rejoice in his defeat, you men. For though the world has stood up and stopped the bastard, the bitch that bore him is in heat again.

[Sheilbh]

Because the lesson that Westminster learned from the 1880s to the 1970s was that you cannot work with a Nationalist Party of any stripe. Not for any length of time over a few months anyway.

Unless they're of the Protestant Ulster variety. The lesson Westminster didn't learn was that ostracising an entire country's vote will lead to separation. At least this time Westminster and especially Tory idiocy won't end in Sinn Fein and the Volunteers having to force the issue.

[alfred russel]

If it holds up, because they've lost the election. The Tories are about 8 seats from a majority which they could get from a coalition with the DUP, or run a minority administration with possible confidence and supply from the DUP. Both are far more likely than Labour, Plaid, SNP, Lib Dems, SDLP and Greens somehow forming a rainbow coalition.

I was assuming their numbers will come in somewhere short of 300, based on the polling data (but not exit polls).  Agree if they end up only 8 shy of a majority then it is a rather clear cut case.

You people really need to get over the regional party nonsense. Your country is the size of a postage stamp.

[Sheilbh]

RUMOURS GEORGE GALLOWAY WILL LOSE HIS SEAT!

BBC Radio Leeds @BBCLeeds  ·  7m 7 minutes ago
Bradford Council have reported Respect's George Galloway to the police for allegedly breaking election law [via @dinakarim] #ge2015

Ah. Next mayor of Tower Hamlets.

[celedhring]

I don't even know who this Galloway fellow is, but most of the British people in my feed are gloating about his demise.

[celedhring]

Everybody wins, except the Lib Dems:

[Warspite]

So where are the Lib Dem votes from 2010 going in 2015?

To Cons?

To Lab?

Not turning out?

To UKIP!!?!??!!

[Ed Anger]

Tooting. tee hee

[The Larch]

I don't even know who this Galloway fellow is, but most of the British people in my feed are gloating about his demise.

Leader of a fringe left wing party, former Labour MP that was kicked out for supporting Saddam during the last Gulf War and supporter of almost every nasty regime you could imagine.

[Agelastus]

So where are the Lib Dem votes from 2010 going in 2015?

To Cons?

To Lab?

Not turning out?

To UKIP!!?!??!!

I think the answer is a bit of all three; although I don't think the majority of LibDem votes are going directly to UKIP as just looking at the chart would suggest. Their voters are defecting to Labour and the Tories which is balancing the Labour and Tory losses to UKIP.

And as I've said for five years, that really makes me feel sympathy for the LibDems who did what they had to do five years ago - and disgust for their faithless voters.

Although it does follow a pattern - you go into coalition with the Tories and you damage/wreck your party (see both Lloyd George and Ramsay MacDonald.)