May 2015 UK General Election Campaign.

[jimmy olsen]

In Scotland Labs, Libs, Tories and Nats all think that exit poll is wrong.

YouGov exit poll has the Tories on 284 and Lib Dems on 31, which looks closer to the pre-election polling.

If the first one's right the Tories could form a government with the DUP

[Sheilbh]

Looks like Scotland's still excited post-referendum. Turnout at 81% in Jim Murphy's (Scottish Labour Leader) seat.

[Sheilbh]

MANDY!

His line that 'all three parties have lost' is so much more convincing than the previous Labour line that the 'Coalition' lost their majority

[jimmy olsen]

Looking at the live feed on the Guardian

Plausible, or wishful thinking on their parts?

Labour source highlights projection that Greens will win Norwich South as evidence that exit poll is "well wide of the mark".

  Tim Wigmore  ‎@timwig 

The Greens privately don't think Norwich South possible this time - Bristol West only seat they *could* gain @georgeeaton

[jimmy olsen]

Rumor that Farage has lost.
https://twitter.com/IsabelHardman/status/596458998787866625

EDIT: Tories hold Swindon North with a 22.6% majority.

[jimmy olsen]

Looks good for the Tories

The Tories have held Swindon North. That was 102nd on Labour's target list, according to the Progress briefing from last year (pdf).

Here are the figures in detail.

*Justin Tomlinson (C) 26,295 (50.33%, +5.78%)
Mark Dempsey (Lab) 14,509 (27.77%, -2.74%)
James Faulkner (UKIP) 8,011 (15.33%, +11.67%)
Poppy Hebden-Leeder (Green) 1,723 (3.30%, +2.33%)
Janet Ellard (LD) 1,704 (3.26%, -13.97%)
C maj 11,786 (22.56%)
4.26% swing Lab to C

These figures held to explain why the exit poll could be right. The swing is not Conservative to Labour, but Labour to Conservative - by more than 4%. That may be because Ukip are taking votes from Labour.

[Warspite]

UKIP looking like the UK's third party in national vote share if not at all in seats. With a heavily weakened Liberal Democrat party, Cameron will be more vulnerable than before to restive Tory backbenchers.

The City won't be so thrilled with the result when it becomes obvious the spectre of UK exit from the EU and dissolution of the UK is suddenly much more likely.

[jimmy olsen]

Even better news for the Tories

According to the exit poll, there should have been a 1% swing to Labour in Swindon N. There was a 4.3% swing to the Conservatives.


8:48 AM - 8 May 2015

[Sheilbh]

Labour needed a 7% swing to take that seat. By my quick fag packet figures it looks like Labour is, again, bleeding votes to UKIP.

In 2010 Tories on 44%, Labour on 31%, Lib Dems on 17% and UKIP on about 3.5%. In 2015 Tories on 50%, Labour on 27%, UKIP 15%, Greens on 3.5% and Lib Dems on 3.5% (but still behind the Greens)

Extraordinary. Swindon South is apparently more important for Labour (Swindon North is about 115 on Labour's target list) but this shows the basic truth again - Blair was right, elections are won on the centre ground. Not winning in Middle England - and doing even worse than Gordon Brown in 2010

The big question for Labour could be can you simultaneously be the party of London and the party of the British rust belt? On the other hand I thought UKIP would come second in the North and then after five years of Hollande 2 they'd become the SNP of the North. As it is if there's another Tory government Labour could hold on up there but how Labour goes is interesting.

We may be in a position where UKIP are, by some distance, the third party with about 13% of the vote but only 2 seats. I'm already seeing my fellow lefties turn away from PR as if we should only care about fairness when it's for nice bourgeouis leftie parties we agree with like the Greens and Lib Dems.

Also Labour's only gained 1000 votes in Putney. Apparently there's a recount in Galloway's speech - don't know who's requested it yet.

[Sheilbh]

UKIP looking like the UK's third party in national vote share if not at all in seats. With a heavily weakened Liberal Democrat party, Cameron will be more vulnerable than before to restive Tory backbenchers.

Though if he's in a minority government he's got a lot more patronage to play with. But the Tories have already been mad about Europe during this government - I still can't really believe how incapable of calm, steady government the modern Conservative MP is.

[alfred russel]

UKIP looking like the UK's third party in national vote share if not at all in seats. With a heavily weakened Liberal Democrat party, Cameron will be more vulnerable than before to restive Tory backbenchers.

The City won't be so thrilled with the result when it becomes obvious the spectre of UK exit from the EU and dissolution of the UK is suddenly much more likely.

Why can't Labour form a coalition government? Aside from UKIP, the Tories seem to stand ideologically alone.

[MadImmortalMan]

The City won't be so thrilled with the result when it becomes obvious the spectre of UK exit from the EU and dissolution of the UK is suddenly much more likely.

Isn't that putting it a bit strongly?

[Sheilbh]

Why can't Labour form a coalition government? Aside from UKIP, the Tories seem to stand ideologically alone.

If it holds up, because they've lost the election. The Tories are about 8 seats from a majority which they could get from a coalition with the DUP, or run a minority administration with possible confidence and supply from the DUP. Both are far more likely than Labour, Plaid, SNP, Lib Dems, SDLP and Greens somehow forming a rainbow coalition.

Isn't that putting it a bit strongly?

If it goes through I would expect a referendum on EU membership - and we'd probably stay in. I wouldn't be surprised if the SNP win the next Scottish election that they would hold another referendum either. They said they would if there was a big change - I'd argue winning every seat but one is a big change.

[Sheilbh]

Incidentally everyone now expects Farage to lose. Which, if he does, will mean he probably won't run again and won't be UKIP leader anymore. Interesting to see which direction they go.

[Warspite]

We may be in a position where UKIP are, by some distance, the third party with about 13% of the vote but only 2 seats. I'm already seeing my fellow lefties turn away from PR as if we should only care about fairness when it's for nice bourgeouis leftie parties we agree with like the Greens and Lib Dems.

Haven't asked any of my leftie friends but I wouldn't be surprised if they suddenly shut up about it. But personally I am of the opinion that some kind of hybrid system is necessary in the UK, and that would include a substantial PR component - even with UKIP as the third party. I disagree with everything UKIP stands for, but if they represent the will of the people, then they should get their fair due.