The perils of modern warfare type games

[Razgovory]

I have mentioned this a few times, but I thought I give it a thread, what with Putin looking like he wants seconds from the Ukraine buffet.

As many of you already know, a company called Battlefront http://www.battlefront.com/#  is know for making war games, their first game was Combat Mission: Beyond Overlord back in 2000 and was probably the best turn based PC game I'd ever played.  Sure it was ugly, ugly even for 2000 but it was tremendous fun.  They followed with some sequels covering other fronts in WW2.  They've always been a small, niche company with an eye to detail and realism.  In fact they are closer to simulators in then traditional war games.  Back in 2007 they made a modern warfare type game called "Shock Force", a war game covering a hypothetical war between most of the world and Syria in the far future date 2008.  I liked it alright, but it was a buggy released and featured badly mismatched sides.  Most people passed on it.  Anyway, they decided to make a sequel to Shock Force which would take place in the Ukraine.  Current events may bury this game forever though.

"War is merely the continuation of policy by other means." - Carl von Clausewitz

When a conflict breaks out somewhere in the world it seems that most people react to the news with surprise, perhaps even outright shock. However, there are those that are not surprised in the least. Are they gifted with a crystal ball or second sight? No, of course not. The answer is actually much more mundane... they were simply paying attention. Not just to the news of the day, but deeper into history. While even the most careful and enlightened students of history can not accurately predict the future, they often get fairly close. At the very least they aren't as surprised as the general populace when something goes wrong.

Since Battlefront is in the business of making wargames we make it a priority to understand the history of the conflicts we portray. When it comes to conflicts in the near future we have to go a step further and make a guess as to what may come to pass. In 2005 we started working on our first modern era wargame based on a conflict in Syria, which many told us was unlikely to happen since Iran was the hotspot of the day. Although Combat Mission: Shock Force's exact premise didn't come to pass, it was closer to the mark than we were given credit for at the time of release. Definitely a situation where we are glad to be wrong, though unhappy we weren't totally wrong (i.e. no conflict at all in Syria).

After the success of Shock Force our customers logically asked us what was coming next. In 2009 we made it public that a conflict between Russia and NATO in the Ukraine was to be the next modern warfare setting with a release sometime after returning to WW2 subject matter. Starting in 2012 we began the process of making the artwork and TO&E for the game with a detailed 18 page backstory being finalized in the Fall of 2013 (ahead of the Kiev protests). This thread is to discuss where the game is at now and how we will proceed with it's development during a time of great uncertainty.

Normally we would not release this sort of information ahead of the game itself. In this case we feel compelled to because of the events in the Ukraine today. It's important to us that we show customers and non-customers that we are not throwing together a game to capitalize on the problems of others. In fact, the game is largely done and testing is slated to begin in a few weeks for a late Spring release. By that time we hope everything is resolved peacefully. Believe us when we say that this is not something we want to be right about.

Battlefront.com
March 6, 2014

What follows is the basic premise for our game. It was supposed to be a pure work of fiction designed to create a "setting" for a ground based conflict in the Ukraine between Ukrainian and NATO forces on one side and Russian forces on the other. While we absolutely based the story on real life conditions, we did shape the overall story in such a way as to preclude the possibility of a non-military resolution to the crisis. This is fine for a hypothetical wargame where nobody gets hurt, but totally undesirable for it to happen for real.

Some of what we wrote has actually come true in some form or another. I can not stress how strongly we hope that in the coming days, weeks, months, or even years we are proven wrong about everything else. We wish the people of Ukraine the best, regardless of their ethnic, religious, or political affiliations. You deserve to live peacefully.

What follows is the primary storyline as written in the Fall of 2013 (except for one typo I just noticed!)

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Prelude to War:
As Ukraine's disputes with Russia over trade agreements, energy prices, and free trade agreements with the EU continue, the Ukrainian government and popular sentiment begins to move back towards the West. This movement culminates in 2015 when a new coalition of pro-West parties forms, and its leader wins the Ukrainian presidential election.

The new Ukrainian government begins three developments that considerably chill Ukraine-Russia relations:

1. Ukraine cancels the controversial 2010 Kharkov Accords that extended the Russian lease from May 2017 to 2042.

2. Ukraine demands that by May 28, 2017, the Russian military must leave their facilities in Sevastopol.

3. Ukraine announces their plan to join the EU and NATO as soon as possible.

Russian Escalation:
Russia strongly denounces the Ukrainian government's actions, stating that cancelling the Sevastopol lease is illegal, that Ukraine's joining NATO is a direct threat to Russian national security, and that Ukraine joining the EU would throw the region into chaos. Russia condemns NATO for their aggression by attempting to expand their influence to Russia's borders, and declares that if Ukraine were to enter NATO or the EU, Russia would consider the treaty that defines the Russia-Ukraine border to be void. Russia further states that they will take any steps necessary to protect Russians living in Ukraine.
Russia ratchets up economic pressure on the Ukrainian government in order to convince them to back down via a number of abusive trade policies, especially during the winters of 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 by hiking the price of natural gas. This is coupled with a political encouragement of anti-Ukrainian and anti-Western sentiment in Russia, the Donbass region, and Crimea.

NATO Escalation:
NATO and EU members react positively to Ukraine's new goal of NATO membership, seeing an opportunity to expand their influence eastward and further weaken Russian influence on Eastern Europe. With the help of NATO advisors, the Ukrainian military begins reforms in order to qualify for NATO membership. This process includes joint training exercises between Ukrainian and NATO forces, some of which take place on Ukrainian soil. NATO also lays the groundwork for including Ukraine in their joint development programs for military hardware.
When Russia responds by piling economic and political pressure onto Ukraine, NATO increases their preparations for Ukraine to join NATO, including more and larger joint training exercises. NATO also sides with Ukraine over the Sevastopol lease controversy, warning that if the Russians remain in Crimea after May 2017, they will be committing an aggressive act against Ukrainian sovereignty.

Donbass Region:
The alarmingly rapid Western influence on Ukrainian government policy stirs considerable political unrest in the southeastern area of Ukraine, where the local governments are pro-Russian and the population primarily identifies as Russian. Resistance to the pro-Western government is especially strong in the densely populated southeastern Donbass region, including the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces that share a border with Russia.
In response to the upcoming Ukrainian NATO and EU membership, a separatist political party forms in the eastern regions of Ukraine, calling for a separation from Ukraine and a reuniting with Russia. These movements have both local political and popular support from a largely sympathetic population, fueled by economic hardship and a pro-Russian/anti- Ukrainian media saturation campaign. With the Donbass region politicians, media, and public railing against the Ukrainian national government, the pro-West government moves in police forces from other regions of the country to maintain order. The Ukrainian government accuses the Russian government of instigating the civil unrest and covertly supporting the separatist movements within Ukraine.

Crimea and Sevastopol:
The issue of the cancelled Kharkov Accords lease becomes a standoff in Crimea, as the Russians state that they have every right to use their facilities until 2042 and have no intention of leaving.
As Ukraine's government moves towards NATO membership, civil unrest grows in the Russian-identifying communities in Crimea. As the situation heats up, protests occur against the new Ukrainian government and NATO, eventually turning into riots in Sevastopol. Like the Donbass region, the Ukrainian government moves in national police forces to help contain the civil unrest.
The Ukrainians respond by stepping up police presence in Crimea and especially Sevastopol, with the areas around Russian military installations being especially targeted. Russian military members based in Crimea complain of constant harassment by Ukrainian police. Civil unrest soon reaches critical levels in Sevastopol, and the Ukrainian government deploys paramilitary and military forces in southeastern Ukraine and Crimea. Curfews are imposed. As the deadline to vacate rapidly approaches during the spring of 2017, the Russians still show no signs of leaving.

Critical Incident:
The spark that ignites the conflict begins in Sevastopol. Martial law is enacted in Sevastopol after a pro-Russian demonstration turns into a large riot. During the resulting confusion, Ukrainian and Russian forces in Sevastopol clash in a gunfight that leaves multiple dead and many wounded.
In response, government opposition in southeastern Ukraine reaches the level of outright rebellion as separatist Donbass region and Crimean politicians formally request that the Russian military provide security for them. Russia obliges by demanding that Ukrainian forces vacate the Donbass region and Crimea within one week, so that Russian can provide for their security. The Russian fleet stationed at Sevastopol leaves port and join up with a heavy naval and air escort for Russian ships containing "security" troops heading from Novorossiysk towards Sevastopol. In response, the Ukrainians blockade Sevastopol.
On a dark night in May 2017, Russian forces cross the border into Ukraine in the Donbass region, while Russian naval infantry move out of their bases into Sevastopol.


Russia's Goals:
Russia's goal is to take Crimea and southeastern Ukraine and either annex them or install a satellite government. Accomplishing this will visibly punish Ukraine for joining NATO, install a buffer between NATO's influence and Russia's borders, retain Russia's access to the Black Sea and the Crimean military facilities, and uphold their image as being protective of their people and lands.
Russia's plan is to send what is labeled a humanitarian/peacekeeping force into the Donbass region and Crimea, with the stated intent of restoring the peace. In a best case situation, the Russians hope that the Ukrainians quickly cede the territory without a bloody fight, but they are prepared to eject the Ukrainians forcefully if needed. At the worst case, the Russians realize that they may need to exert extremely heavy pressure against Ukraine's major cities in order to force their acceptance. This worst case scenario, which also carries the high risk of NATO involvement, is only barely acknowledged by the Russian government who think that the Ukrainians will roll over after a display of military might by Russia. (I'm sure we can all think of half a dozen nasty conflicts where the politicians wishfully thought that the fight would be a pushover)

http://www.battlefront.com/community/showthread.php?t=113978

[Capetan Mihali]

Stormfront has definitely released some insightful games.   Like that one based on the DOOM model...

[jimmy olsen]

Wouldn't that just make their game more marketable?

[Razgovory]

Well, Raz is officially stupid.  I preordered it.  Game doesn't even have an official release (it's suppose to be out some time this month).  Hopefully I'll get to send Putin's boys packing soon.

[Razgovory]

Huh.  I thought this was in games forum.  I guess it should be now.  Well here's a recent video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmOVvX1j3XY