Dispatches from the State Ministry of Truth

[Monoriu]

You guys are really coming down hard on Mono here.  Half of you would be doing the same.

Spending every day rage venting to a crowd that sympathizes more with the object of your ire? Doesn't sound very enticing to me.

I've thought about this.  Actually, I think it will be boring if most people here agree with me. 

[Admiral Yi]

Check out the haole copper.

From The Economist: a recent poll showed c. 60% support for the terrorists.  So perhaps not a minority position.

[Monoriu]

- I walked through the main rioter camp on my way to work this morning.  Granted, Harcourt road is a 12-lane highway, whereas Lun Wo road is only 2 lanes.  So the police shield wall that clears Harcourt road needs to be 6 times as wide as the one shown in the pictures above, at least.  It is also more complicated because there are overpasses, concrete central dividers, subsidiary roads, exits and entries etc.  But still, my observation is that there are at most 500 people there in the mornings.  There are 30,000 full time police officers in HK.  Operationally, the police can clear them out easily and without significant casualties, even considering that the rioters inevitably get reinforcements once the battle starts (they have sentries that observe police truck movements).  So it is a question of whether Beijing and HK government can deal with the political consequences of clearing the camp.  It seems quite clear to me that whatever happens, the rift between a significant chunk of the population and the government cannot be healed, at least not in this government term. 

[Monoriu]

Check out the haole copper.

From The Economist: a recent poll showed c. 60% support for the terrorists.  So perhaps not a minority position.

As I have said before in this thread, the pan-democrats consistently get around 60% of the vote in every election since the 90s, so I am not surprised about that figure.  I also need to point out that a lot depends on how the question is phrased.  "Do you support democracy?" "Do you support the pan-democrats and students?" "Do you think Beijing should relax the election rules?" etc will get majority support.  "Do you support the occupation of roads indefinitely to get concessions out of Beijing?" will probably get less. 

[Admiral Yi]

I rechecked the article.  60% reject the current 2017 election plan.

[Monoriu]

Beijing has stepped up the attack on the rioters, now calling them idiots and separatists.  There is also a threat that if this continues, HK's status as Asia's financial centre will decline.  I don't think that is merely a prediction.  That's an actual threat, because our status as a financial centre depends on Beijing's monetary and financial policies.  If they deliberately punish us, we are done. 

[Monoriu]

I rechecked the article.  60% reject the current 2017 election plan.

Then reject it.  The pan-demcorats can vote it down in LegCo, as passage requires 2/3 super-majority.  Under the current circumstances, any democrat who switches sides can expect to be lynched.  I don't think Beijing cares whether the election plan goes ahead or not any more.  If the pan-democrats vote it down, Beijing will then be able to say, "hey I gave you universal suffrage, you don't want it, so that's it.  We'll never speak of it again in the next 50 years, and you can stick with your 1,200 committee that elects your Chief Executive that you obviously LOVE.  kthxbye."

[DontSayBanana]

That isn't possible.

I don't remember Philly smelling bad.

It didn't, but then they halved the trash pickups to cover a budget shortfall a few years ago.  On top of that, they installed compactors in center city to require even less pickups.  It's a beautiful city, but not a particularly good-smelling one.

[Valmy]

You guys are really coming down hard on Mono here.  Half of you would be doing the same.

Nah I would be protesting, which is why I really hope we never get something like this here.  I am too young to die.  You would probably be doing the same based on your posts though.

[Valmy]

Beijing has stepped up the attack on the rioters, now calling them idiots and separatists.  There is also a threat that if this continues, HK's status as Asia's financial centre will decline.  I don't think that is merely a prediction.  That's an actual threat, because our status as a financial centre depends on Beijing's monetary and financial policies.  If they deliberately punish us, we are done. 

Collective punishment?  How delightfully tyrannical and arbitrary.

I would hope that is all bluster to try to encourage the Hong Kong government to end this.

[Jacob]

Check out the haole copper.

From The Economist: a recent poll showed c. 60% support for the terrorists.  So perhaps not a minority position.

My friend was in HK when it went down, and was staying in the area where it happened. She said there was broad support from the locals she talked to, to the point of professionals getting time off from work to go there, people bringing home cooked food, etc.

[Jacob]

Beijing has stepped up the attack on the rioters, now calling them idiots and separatists.  There is also a threat that if this continues, HK's status as Asia's financial centre will decline.  I don't think that is merely a prediction.  That's an actual threat, because our status as a financial centre depends on Beijing's monetary and financial policies.  If they deliberately punish us, we are done. 

Collective punishment?  How delightfully tyrannical and arbitrary.

I would hope that is all bluster to try to encourage the Hong Kong government to end this.

Not a bad move if they pull it off, trying to put the blame on any eventual decline on HK democrats rather than on Beijing's economic policies (or things outside of Beijing's control altogether).

[Monoriu]

Beijing has stepped up the attack on the rioters, now calling them idiots and separatists.  There is also a threat that if this continues, HK's status as Asia's financial centre will decline.  I don't think that is merely a prediction.  That's an actual threat, because our status as a financial centre depends on Beijing's monetary and financial policies.  If they deliberately punish us, we are done. 

Collective punishment?  How delightfully tyrannical and arbitrary.

I would hope that is all bluster to try to encourage the Hong Kong government to end this.

We only have ourselves to blame if it happens.  Hong Kong's position is very much like the guy in the Life of Pi.  We are unarmed and stuck with a tiger on a boat in the middle of an ocean.  We gotta learn how to co-exist with the tiger.  The tiger has been reasonable so far, and there is a mutually beneficial relationship.  But if the tiger says some lines must not be crossed, you don't cross them, especially if it isn't a life and death matter.  We have sailed without democracy for decades.  We aren't going to die without it. 

I am pretty sure that Beijing now calls the shots on how to deal with the riots, so they don't need to encourage the HK government to do anything. 

[Monoriu]

Check out the haole copper.

From The Economist: a recent poll showed c. 60% support for the terrorists.  So perhaps not a minority position.

My friend was in HK when it went down, and was staying in the area where it happened. She said there was broad support from the locals she talked to, to the point of professionals getting time off from work to go there, people bringing home cooked food, etc.

I've talked to a lot of civil servants.  Their reaction: we should photograph all the participants, build a database, and use a computer system to check each and every future applicant for the civil service against the database.  We'd know what to do with them if we found that any of them participated 

[Valmy]

I've talked to a lot of civil servants.  Their reaction: we should photograph all the participants, build a database, and use a computer system to check each and every future applicant for the civil service against the database.  We'd know what to do with them if we found that any of them participated 

Man you Civil Servants are ruthless.