Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[DGuller]

I'm leaning heavily towards it being a pretext of some kind, or part of the plan.  What I watched on Russian news was very alarming.  The kind of propaganda that is whipped up doesn't have an off switch;  such propaganda can only be a precursor to war.  I hope I'm wrong, or I hope that Putin gets scared of the consequences at 11th hour, but I don't see it being a highly likely possibility anymore.

[Malthus]

I'm leaning heavily towards it being a pretext of some kind, or part of the plan.  What I watched on Russian news was very alarming.  The kind of propaganda that is whipped up doesn't have an off switch;  such propaganda can only be a precursor to war.  I hope I'm wrong, or I hope that Putin gets scared of the consequences at 11th hour, but I don't see it being a highly likely possibility anymore.

I suspect you are right, while likewise hoping you are wrong.

I was arguing the point with my parents the other day, and they were talking about this, that or the other action by Ukraine being a trigger for the war. My point was this: Russia has got to the point where a trigger isn't really necessary: they can simply lie and make shit up, whatever they feel like, as they are increasingly doing - what's the difference? Few in the West believe Putin any more, even the usual useful idiots - and the ones that do will not be put off by yet more blatant lying.

The Russian public has already been conditioned to believing the war is justified.

[KRonn]

Supposedly, the Russians have been spray painting "peacekeeping force" on the sides of their military vehicles along the Ukrainian border.

I bet at this point the signs look more like Peacekeeping Force Invasion Force.

[The Minsky Moment]

My point was this: Russia has got to the point where a trigger isn't really necessary: they can simply lie and make shit up, whatever they feel like, as they are increasingly doing - what's the difference? Few in the West believe Putin any more, even the usual useful idiots - and the ones that do will not be put off by yet more blatant lying.

The Russian public has already been conditioned to believing the war is justified.

The Russian population does have access to the Western press, internet, etc.  They can be spun but that there are some limits.  The lies have to have some kernel of believability, and the more "truthy" they can be, the more confident Putin can be about pushing things.  The idea of physically attacking Ukrainian "little brothers" is not popular.

[DGuller]

My point was this: Russia has got to the point where a trigger isn't really necessary: they can simply lie and make shit up, whatever they feel like, as they are increasingly doing - what's the difference? Few in the West believe Putin any more, even the usual useful idiots - and the ones that do will not be put off by yet more blatant lying.

The Russian public has already been conditioned to believing the war is justified.

The Russian population does have access to the Western press, internet, etc.  They can be spun but that there are some limits.  The lies have to have some kernel of believability, and the more "truthy" they can be, the more confident Putin can be about pushing things.  The idea of physically attacking Ukrainian "little brothers" is not popular.

Spoken like a man that hasn't encountered too many Russians on the Internet.  Russians do not buy into the brazen propaganda that CNN publishes 24/7.

[Malthus]

My point was this: Russia has got to the point where a trigger isn't really necessary: they can simply lie and make shit up, whatever they feel like, as they are increasingly doing - what's the difference? Few in the West believe Putin any more, even the usual useful idiots - and the ones that do will not be put off by yet more blatant lying.

The Russian public has already been conditioned to believing the war is justified.

The Russian population does have access to the Western press, internet, etc.  They can be spun but that there are some limits.  The lies have to have some kernel of believability, and the more "truthy" they can be, the more confident Putin can be about pushing things.  The idea of physically attacking Ukrainian "little brothers" is not popular.

The central narrative comming from Russia is that the current Ukrainian government is a bunch of fascists intent on persecuting the Russian speaking minority. This never had any truth to it.

The "spin" is that Russia is not attacking Ukrainian "little brothers", but protecting the vulnerable Russian minorities from these nasty fascists in the current Ukrainian government. From what I've seen, this "spin" is mostly believed in Russia by the general population despite internet access etc. - indeed, Russians are all over the Internet (apparently) spreading variants of this message. The anger isn't at "Ukrainians" in general but at these supposed "fascists".

[Legbiter]

I'm leaning heavily towards it being a pretext of some kind, or part of the plan.  What I watched on Russian news was very alarming.  The kind of propaganda that is whipped up doesn't have an off switch;  such propaganda can only be a precursor to war.

Well yes, the narrative is brave Russia defending innocent compatriots from genocidal Kiev fascists. Then letting the "resistance" get killed off by the Ukes won't play well with your average Ivan.

[CountDeMoney]

It's not like the Europeans are worried for the Ukranians;  Europeans give about as much of a shit about the Ukrainians as they have historically for Poland.

[derspiess]

Spoken like a man that hasn't encountered too many Russians on the Internet.  Russians do not buy into the brazen propaganda that CNN publishes 24/7.

She's on CNN now? 

[The Minsky Moment]

The central narrative comming from Russia is that the current Ukrainian government is a bunch of fascists intent on persecuting the Russian speaking minority. This never had any truth to it.

There are "far right" parties and factions in Ukrainian politics that played a role in the Maidan.
The Ukrainian state is quite centralized and there is a real case to be made for some degree of de-centralization.  The Russian language is not an official state language despite its widespread use, particularly in the eastern regions.

These facts aren't proof of the propositions you state above, by any stretch.  But they are kernels of fact upon which, with much embellishment, that kind of narrative can be built.

[Razgovory]

I think it should be said that Russia has long despised Ukraine.  They don't regard it as a real country.  I don't think invading part of it will hurt their feelings much.  As for the ethnic Ukrainians at best they view them in the patronizing manner of "little Russians".  At worst Fascists or collaborators of Fascists.  This attitude is a lot older then the current crisis or even the creation of an independent Ukrainian state.  Russians have never been shy about killing Ukrainians.  I don't suppose they'll start now.

[Berkut]

I was listening to a podcast talking about the crisis and the author mentioned that the Ukraine, kind of like Poland, is what he called a "plateau" nation - it is like a low lying island surrounded by water. It only ever seems to exist when the nations around it our weak, and when the nations around it are strong, it tends to get swallowed up by them, only to come back again when they recede.

[Barrister]

I was listening to a podcast talking about the crisis and the author mentioned that the Ukraine, kind of like Poland, is what he called a "plateau" nation - it is like a low lying island surrounded by water. It only ever seems to exist when the nations around it our weak, and when the nations around it are strong, it tends to get swallowed up by them, only to come back again when they recede.

That's a really tortured analogy that really doesn't seem helpful.

Historically, there never was a Ukrainian state until the Russian Civil War.  You had the Kievan Rus, but it didn't identify itself as being "Ukrainian".  You had the Cossack Hetmanate in the 17th century, but again not a "Ukrainian" state.

But what there was was an identifiable group of people speaking an generally identifiable and unique language with a shared cultural identity.  And with the rise of nationalism in the 19th century they identified themselves as the Ukrainian nation and, like many others, sought to form a nation-state.

Lots of central and eastern european countries don't have long historical identities - the czechs, slovaks, slovenes, romanians have no historic state to point to.

[Razgovory]

Yeah, Poland had a pretty good run.  It was only when it's neighbors all allied together was Poland destroyed.

[Malthus]

The central narrative comming from Russia is that the current Ukrainian government is a bunch of fascists intent on persecuting the Russian speaking minority. This never had any truth to it.

There are "far right" parties and factions in Ukrainian politics that played a role in the Maidan.
The Ukrainian state is quite centralized and there is a real case to be made for some degree of de-centralization.  The Russian language is not an official state language despite its widespread use, particularly in the eastern regions.

These facts aren't proof of the propositions you state above, by any stretch.  But they are kernels of fact upon which, with much embellishment, that kind of narrative can be built.

Sure. And having accepted the essential truth of that central narrative, Russians don't really need an "incident" over and above that to go to war to "protect minorities". They have all the reason they need - fascists are oppressing russian minorities.