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Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

Started by mongers, August 06, 2014, 03:12:53 PM

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DGuller

I'm leaning heavily towards it being a pretext of some kind, or part of the plan.  What I watched on Russian news was very alarming.  The kind of propaganda that is whipped up doesn't have an off switch;  such propaganda can only be a precursor to war.  I hope I'm wrong, or I hope that Putin gets scared of the consequences at 11th hour, but I don't see it being a highly likely possibility anymore.

Malthus

Quote from: DGuller on August 12, 2014, 09:37:51 AM
I'm leaning heavily towards it being a pretext of some kind, or part of the plan.  What I watched on Russian news was very alarming.  The kind of propaganda that is whipped up doesn't have an off switch;  such propaganda can only be a precursor to war.  I hope I'm wrong, or I hope that Putin gets scared of the consequences at 11th hour, but I don't see it being a highly likely possibility anymore.

I suspect you are right, while likewise hoping you are wrong.

I was arguing the point with my parents the other day, and they were talking about this, that or the other action by Ukraine being a trigger for the war. My point was this: Russia has got to the point where a trigger isn't really necessary: they can simply lie and make shit up, whatever they feel like, as they are increasingly doing - what's the difference? Few in the West believe Putin any more, even the usual useful idiots - and the ones that do will not be put off by yet more blatant lying.

The Russian public has already been conditioned to believing the war is justified.
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane—Marcus Aurelius

KRonn

Quote from: Hansmeister on August 11, 2014, 03:25:07 PM
Supposedly, the Russians have been spray painting "peacekeeping force" on the sides of their military vehicles along the Ukrainian border.

I bet at this point the signs look more like Peacekeeping Force Invasion Force.

The Minsky Moment

Quote from: Malthus on August 12, 2014, 09:44:19 AM
My point was this: Russia has got to the point where a trigger isn't really necessary: they can simply lie and make shit up, whatever they feel like, as they are increasingly doing - what's the difference? Few in the West believe Putin any more, even the usual useful idiots - and the ones that do will not be put off by yet more blatant lying.

The Russian public has already been conditioned to believing the war is justified.

The Russian population does have access to the Western press, internet, etc.  They can be spun but that there are some limits.  The lies have to have some kernel of believability, and the more "truthy" they can be, the more confident Putin can be about pushing things.  The idea of physically attacking Ukrainian "little brothers" is not popular.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

DGuller

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 12, 2014, 10:57:23 AM
Quote from: Malthus on August 12, 2014, 09:44:19 AM
My point was this: Russia has got to the point where a trigger isn't really necessary: they can simply lie and make shit up, whatever they feel like, as they are increasingly doing - what's the difference? Few in the West believe Putin any more, even the usual useful idiots - and the ones that do will not be put off by yet more blatant lying.

The Russian public has already been conditioned to believing the war is justified.

The Russian population does have access to the Western press, internet, etc.  They can be spun but that there are some limits.  The lies have to have some kernel of believability, and the more "truthy" they can be, the more confident Putin can be about pushing things.  The idea of physically attacking Ukrainian "little brothers" is not popular.
Spoken like a man that hasn't encountered too many Russians on the Internet.  Russians do not buy into the brazen propaganda that CNN publishes 24/7.

Malthus

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 12, 2014, 10:57:23 AM
Quote from: Malthus on August 12, 2014, 09:44:19 AM
My point was this: Russia has got to the point where a trigger isn't really necessary: they can simply lie and make shit up, whatever they feel like, as they are increasingly doing - what's the difference? Few in the West believe Putin any more, even the usual useful idiots - and the ones that do will not be put off by yet more blatant lying.

The Russian public has already been conditioned to believing the war is justified.

The Russian population does have access to the Western press, internet, etc.  They can be spun but that there are some limits.  The lies have to have some kernel of believability, and the more "truthy" they can be, the more confident Putin can be about pushing things.  The idea of physically attacking Ukrainian "little brothers" is not popular.

The central narrative comming from Russia is that the current Ukrainian government is a bunch of fascists intent on persecuting the Russian speaking minority. This never had any truth to it.

The "spin" is that Russia is not attacking Ukrainian "little brothers", but protecting the vulnerable Russian minorities from these nasty fascists in the current Ukrainian government. From what I've seen, this "spin" is mostly believed in Russia by the general population despite internet access etc. - indeed, Russians are all over the Internet (apparently) spreading variants of this message. The anger isn't at "Ukrainians" in general but at these supposed "fascists".
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane—Marcus Aurelius

Legbiter

Quote from: DGuller on August 12, 2014, 09:37:51 AM
I'm leaning heavily towards it being a pretext of some kind, or part of the plan.  What I watched on Russian news was very alarming.  The kind of propaganda that is whipped up doesn't have an off switch;  such propaganda can only be a precursor to war.

Well yes, the narrative is brave Russia defending innocent compatriots from genocidal Kiev fascists. Then letting the "resistance" get killed off by the Ukes won't play well with your average Ivan.
Posted using 100% recycled electrons.

CountDeMoney

It's not like the Europeans are worried for the Ukranians;  Europeans give about as much of a shit about the Ukrainians as they have historically for Poland.

derspiess

Quote from: DGuller on August 12, 2014, 11:13:31 AM
Spoken like a man that hasn't encountered too many Russians on the Internet.  Russians do not buy into the brazen propaganda that CNN publishes 24/7.

She's on CNN now?  :w00t:
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

The Minsky Moment

Quote from: Malthus on August 12, 2014, 11:18:01 AM
The central narrative comming from Russia is that the current Ukrainian government is a bunch of fascists intent on persecuting the Russian speaking minority. This never had any truth to it.

There are "far right" parties and factions in Ukrainian politics that played a role in the Maidan.
The Ukrainian state is quite centralized and there is a real case to be made for some degree of de-centralization.  The Russian language is not an official state language despite its widespread use, particularly in the eastern regions.

These facts aren't proof of the propositions you state above, by any stretch.  But they are kernels of fact upon which, with much embellishment, that kind of narrative can be built.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

Razgovory

I think it should be said that Russia has long despised Ukraine.  They don't regard it as a real country.  I don't think invading part of it will hurt their feelings much.  As for the ethnic Ukrainians at best they view them in the patronizing manner of "little Russians".  At worst Fascists or collaborators of Fascists.  This attitude is a lot older then the current crisis or even the creation of an independent Ukrainian state.  Russians have never been shy about killing Ukrainians.  I don't suppose they'll start now.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

Berkut

I was listening to a podcast talking about the crisis and the author mentioned that the Ukraine, kind of like Poland, is what he called a "plateau" nation - it is like a low lying island surrounded by water. It only ever seems to exist when the nations around it our weak, and when the nations around it are strong, it tends to get swallowed up by them, only to come back again when they recede.
"If you think this has a happy ending, then you haven't been paying attention."

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Barrister

Quote from: Berkut on August 12, 2014, 01:34:12 PM
I was listening to a podcast talking about the crisis and the author mentioned that the Ukraine, kind of like Poland, is what he called a "plateau" nation - it is like a low lying island surrounded by water. It only ever seems to exist when the nations around it our weak, and when the nations around it are strong, it tends to get swallowed up by them, only to come back again when they recede.

That's a really tortured analogy that really doesn't seem helpful.

Historically, there never was a Ukrainian state until the Russian Civil War.  You had the Kievan Rus, but it didn't identify itself as being "Ukrainian".  You had the Cossack Hetmanate in the 17th century, but again not a "Ukrainian" state.

But what there was was an identifiable group of people speaking an generally identifiable and unique language with a shared cultural identity.  And with the rise of nationalism in the 19th century they identified themselves as the Ukrainian nation and, like many others, sought to form a nation-state.

Lots of central and eastern european countries don't have long historical identities - the czechs, slovaks, slovenes, romanians have no historic state to point to.
Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

Razgovory

Yeah, Poland had a pretty good run.  It was only when it's neighbors all allied together was Poland destroyed.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

Malthus

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 12, 2014, 01:22:31 PM
Quote from: Malthus on August 12, 2014, 11:18:01 AM
The central narrative comming from Russia is that the current Ukrainian government is a bunch of fascists intent on persecuting the Russian speaking minority. This never had any truth to it.

There are "far right" parties and factions in Ukrainian politics that played a role in the Maidan.
The Ukrainian state is quite centralized and there is a real case to be made for some degree of de-centralization.  The Russian language is not an official state language despite its widespread use, particularly in the eastern regions.

These facts aren't proof of the propositions you state above, by any stretch.  But they are kernels of fact upon which, with much embellishment, that kind of narrative can be built.

Sure. And having accepted the essential truth of that central narrative, Russians don't really need an "incident" over and above that to go to war to "protect minorities". They have all the reason they need - fascists are oppressing russian minorities.
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane—Marcus Aurelius