Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-26

[Legbiter]

Looking more and more likely that Witkoff is compromised.

Senator Mike Rounds:

"Secretary Rubio did make a phone call to us this afternoon. I think he made it very clear to us that we are the recipients of a proposal that was delivered to one of our representatives. It is not our recommendation, it is not our peace plan. It is a proposal that was received. And as an intermediary, we have made arrangements to share it. And we did not release it. It was leaked. It was not released by our members or our representatives... This is an opportunity to receive it and that it has been utilized and delivered to the Ukrainians, and that they will have an opportunity to respond. And in doing so, you now have one side being presented and the opportunity for the other side to respond."

Fucking amateurs. This is active measures 101.

"Trump's 28-point Ukraine peace plan, drafted after a secret Miami meeting between envoy Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner and sanctioned Russian fund chief Kirill Dmitriev, bypassed the State Department, NSC and envoy Keith Kellogg, Reuters reports. Even Secretary Marco Rubio likely saw it only later. The document contains ideas Rubio previously rejected and shows Russian phrasing."

https://x.com/polidemitolog/status/1992609081396273383

 

Yeah seems there are rival court factions around Trump sabotaging each other. I pity the russians having placed all their hopes on the US bailing them out in a way.

[Sheilbh]

I think as in previous attempts the goal for European governments will be to coordinate with Kyiv on how to reject this without appearing like the party that doesn't want to do a deal - if that's the choice in Kyiv.

I was really struck by quite how much Zelensky talked about how tough this winter is being and that many Ukrainians want peace. From everything I understand it is the worst winter since the war started and morale isn't great. There are only invidious options for Zelensky but I got the sense that in part he was trying to start to prepare Europe for the possibility of talks (I think there may be a bit of a "blame Ukraine" game in Europe if there is peace, particularly with the current corruption scandal).

We also need to acknowledge that Russia is experiencing economic problems which will intensify in 2026, but it is not on the point of collapse. It is adding 30k volunteers every month so is able to carry on grinding and I think it's more than possible that they decide they ae winning so just continue.

I agree this is clearly not drafted by diplomats or anyone who cares about the details. But it also struck me as the first Russian proposal that looks even close to the area of what a final deal might look like so I don't think this is the deal - but I think it may be start of serious talks on what that is.

Just to return to Europe who I imagine are working out how to support Kyiv on this as we speak - it is twelve months since Trump's election, ten months since his inauguration, nine months since Vance's appearance at Munich and the ambush of Zelensky in the Oval Office. I have not yet seen the shift I'd hoped to see from European states after those shocks and I slightly worry Europe is step by step adjust to the comfort of being a frog in slowly heating water.

[Tamas]

I agree this is clearly not drafted by diplomats or anyone who cares about the details. But it also struck me as the first Russian proposal that looks even close to the area of what a final deal might look like so I don't think this is the deal - but I think it may be start of serious talks on what that is.

It isn't very close though. It demands a lot and offers only things the Ukrainians have received several times over already (a vague promise not to attack them).

A "deal" implies both sides give up things. Russia doesn't give up anything in that "proposal" because the "proposal" does not prevent them from taking everything else they want, at a later date. In fact, it just makes it easier for them to do so.

[Sheilbh]

It isn't very close though. It demands a lot and offers only things the Ukrainians have received several times over already (a vague promise not to attack them).

A "deal" implies both sides give up things. Russia doesn't give up anything in that "proposal" because the "proposal" does not prevent them from taking everything else they want, at a later date. In fact, it just makes it easier for them to do so.

Okay replace deal with settlement. And I didn't say it's very close. As I say to me it seems like the first serious Russian proposal in that it's the first won that looks like it could even form the basis of talks for what a settlement could end up like

I don't disagree on the right or wrong, but Ukraine isn't winning. The US is withdrawing. The Europeans are not willing or able to replace that US withdrawl, far less go over it sufficient to cause a shift in Ukraine's favour (in part because of Europe's own military and development spending). And Ukraine is facing its worst winter and real problems politically (especially the corruption scandal) and economically that could get even worse, while Russia isn't on the edge of collapse. There are big challenges for Russian but they're far more easily surmountable. It is not clear to me that Ukraine's position gets any easier from here in the short term (though I think 2026 will be tough for Russia).

Also there are shifts from previous Russian positions. For example instead of just taking the rest of Donetsk they would take it but it would be a DMZ (no detail on how this would be enforced or monitored but a change), a significantly higher "cap" on Ukraine's army, no exclusion of Ukraine joining the EU (though the EU would be mad to let them in any time soon) - but I think the big shift is the vagueness around security guarantees that hasn't previously been present.

As I say it is far from final - I'd frame it as what you'd expect Russia's opening position to look like if they intended to reach a settlement at the end of it - but I think in particular that space for real security guarantees is something that is absolutely key for Ukraine and has been missing in every previous Russian offer.

[Tamas]

But you are still basing your argument on taking the Russian offer at face value. The DMZ thing is irrelevant. First of all that's still Russian territory. Second of all, as evidenced during their 2022 preparation, in the age of satellites it's not like they could manage a strategic or even a tactical surprise if they had the ability to legally move troops right next to the border. And if they wanted to, creating a pretext is laughably easy as they showed in 2014 and 2015 with the Donbas "civilians" getting their SPG out of the shed to fight Ukrainian oppression.

[Sheilbh]

That's why I flagged that how it would be enforced or monitored is undefined and that's the essential bit - again tied to security guarantees.