Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Zoupa]

It's bad but not that bad. They sent in the 3rd Brigade (tHe AzOV nEoNAZis!!!!). I don't think russians have the capacity to exploit the breakthrough.

[Josquius]

Yes, sounds like a combination of factors built up and things cracked for Ukraine there and Russia sent through a lot of infantry.
They're largely infiltrators for now though can be removed if Ukraine acts fast.
To get to this point Russia has expended a huge amount of manpower.

Fingers crossed Ukraine can stamp them out.

[Valmy]

I'm still not sure that Russia/Putin wants to do a deal. I think their view is that they can keep on going and will win more through war.

It is hard to think of a deal that would do anything for Ukraine. After all, they already had a deal and everybody broke it. International treaties these days are not worth the paper they are written on (or hard drive they are stored on) with Trump and Putin around. Any deal is just a temporary ceasefire, it will be ripped up and ignored the minute some corrupt strongman goon decides he doesn't like it and nobody will do shit about it.

[The Minsky Moment]

These Russian offensives need to seen in perspective.  Russia is nowhere near achieving their strategic goal of subverting or subjugating Ukraine.  They are infiltrating small tactical groups and exploiting gaps in Ukranian lines to claim morsels of ground.  Compared to something like the Brusilov offensives it's small potatoes.  And the historical success of those offensives were followed by collapse a year later.

The fundamental strategic picture remains:
(1) Russia lacks the means to subjugate Ukraine as long as the West keeps the faith.
(2) Ukraine if strongly backed by the EU and if decently backed by the US is in a stronger long-term position to carry on the conflict than Russia.

The Russian strategy since 2022 has been political and the principal adversaries in that political war are the EU and the USA, not Ukraine. If Russia can isolate Ukraine politically, they can prevail. If they can't, they have no realistic path to victory.  The recent offensive activity in the field is a last minute surge to build some extra "facts on the ground" to fuel the political narrative.

Unfortunately, the political war against the US has enjoyed considerable success, overturning once overhwelming and bipartisan support of Ukraine through water-muddying propaganda and effective mobilization of political assets.  Pro Russia voices now dominate the heights of the American security establishment and Russia' most powerful (if not reliable) US asset has again been maneuvered to undermine Ukraine.  We will see over the next few days how effective this political offensive will be.

[viper37]

I bet putin's the one that suggested Alaska. He's terrified of his plane getting shot down.

Trump to offer Putin 'minerals' deal in exchange for ceasefire in Ukraine, media reports 

US President Donald Trump plans to offer Russian President Vladimir Putin access to rare earth minerals in order to incentivize him to end the war in Ukraine, The Telegraph informs.

According to the outlet, Trump's proposals for Putin will include granting Russia access to Alaska's natural resources and lifting some US sanctions on the Russian aviation industry.

The proposals also include giving Putin access to rare earth minerals in Ukrainian territories currently occupied by Russia.
It is noted that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is examining economic compromises the US could make with Russia to expedite the conclusion of a ceasefire agreement.

Alaska goes back to Russia, and so does Ukraine.    From a certain point of view.

[The Minsky Moment]

Trump's "diplomacy" consists of recycled rejected scenes from Idiocracy and Dumb and Dumber and yet even the mainstream news outlets will report it relatively straight as if this is all normal.  The fool still doesn't understand what rare earth minerals are. The Alaska thing is completely bonkers except one must take into account that both his Greenland and Canadian annexation plans are genuine (at least in his confused brain) and his aim is to reach some grand bargain with Russia on shared Arctic spheres of influence. 

[Razgovory]

Putin to offer magic beans in return.

[Valmy]

Trump's "diplomacy" consists of recycled rejected scenes from Idiocracy and Dumb and Dumber and yet even the mainstream news outlets will report it relatively straight as if this is all normal.

I am so tired of that crap man. It drove me nuts in the first term, and it fills me with apathy towards the media in the second. Which I guess is mission accomplished.

[Zoupa]

Lavrov showed up in Alaska wearing a CCCP shirt. They are Chicken Kyiv on the plane.

Sooooooo subtle you guys.

[Josquius]

Rumours are Ukraine has mostly pushed back the Russian breakthrough of their lines.
Nice timing.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Pokrovsk still looks likely to fall this year though

[celedhring]

So, besides agreeing that they like each other very much, there doesn't seem to be anything else? Which I guess it's the best one could hope for at this point.

[Zanza]

Even assuming there were no secret agreements made, the photo op alone is a huge win for Putin.

Trump has "pardoned" him for his war crimes and accepted him back into polite society.

Similar to his meeting with Kim Jong Un in the first term or his pardons of the January 6th insurrectionists.

[Tamas]

Apparently Russian press loved the picture of American soldiers kneeling to keep the red carpet in place at the airport while Putin walked past.

What a humiliation. Not only Trump is not the master deal maker he poses as, but the exact opposite - he is terrible at it.

[Zoupa]

It's bad but not that bad. They sent in the 3rd Brigade (tHe AzOV nEoNAZis!!!!). I don't think russians have the capacity to exploit the breakthrough.

Back in the real world, Ukraine is pocketing the salient lol.



Get wrecked, moskals.