Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Sheilbh]

Guardian got another investigation - this time from Cyprus. So far PwC Cyprus helping move £1 billion for a Russian oligarch on the day he was sanctioned by the EU and a German Russia expert/commentator receive €600,000 from an ally of Putin:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/series/cyprus-confidential

I'd expect more to come.

Edit: Also this is like Panama Papers and other projects with teams from loads of papers - Guardian is UK partner.

[grumbler]

The before pic of missile corvette Askold.



It seems to eat 3 Storm Shadow missiles in this clip. Last hit very impressive.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1721597089908408756

Just noticed these posts.  Two thoughts:
1.  Very impressive that the Ukrainians could hit a ship at dock with radar-guided missiles.  It takes a very sophisticated seeker to see thorough the ground clutter there.
2.  Also impressed that a corvette could eat three missiles like that and still (apparently) be repairable.

[Jacob]

Guardian got another investigation - this time from Cyprus. So far PwC Cyprus helping move £1 billion for a Russian oligarch on the day he was sanctioned by the EU and a German Russia expert/commentator receive €600,000 from an ally of Putin:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/series/cyprus-confidential

I'd expect more to come.

Edit: Also this is like Panama Papers and other projects with teams from loads of papers - Guardian is UK partner.

Good work.

[The Minsky Moment]

Side point but I don't see how the EU can counsel candidate countries about corruption with a straight face while the Cyprus financial sector keeps operating business as usual.  The Swiss got their act together; there is no excuse.

[Admiral Yi]

Side point but I don't see how the EU can counsel candidate countries about corruption with a straight face while the Cyprus financial sector keeps operating business as usual.  The Swiss got their act together; there is no excuse.

Hear hear

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

Just noticed these posts.  Two thoughts:
1.  Very impressive that the Ukrainians could hit a ship at dock with radar-guided missiles.  It takes a very sophisticated seeker to see thorough the ground clutter there.
2.  Also impressed that a corvette could eat three missiles like that and still (apparently) be repairable.

This only reduces the impressiveness a little bit, but from what I can find about the Storm Shadow/SCALP system it uses an IR seeker for terminal guidance.  It's targeted using a combination of geographic coordinates and an IR picture of what it's supposed to hit.  So it seems the Ukrainians managed to get a suitable image of the ship and get missiles on the way before the Russians moved her.

It's hard to tell from the video and that one photo, but it looks like all three hit her dockside, and one or two missiles may have hit the dock itself.  It's possible the target was the dock itself, or the best shot they could get for targeting was an amorphous blob of the dock plus ship.  Either way, I think she (supposedly) survived because she didn't take three direct hits.

[Gups]

Side point but I don't see how the EU can counsel candidate countries about corruption with a straight face while the Cyprus financial sector keeps operating business as usual.  The Swiss got their act together; there is no excuse.

Seems that once you are inside the club, you can do what you want. File under Orban.

[Jacob]

It seems like Ukraine has established a firm beachhead on across the Dneiper river?

Good news if true.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

It seems like Ukraine has established a firm beachhead on across the Dneiper river?

Good news if true.

They've been at it for a while now. Hopefully they can make some serious inroads there cause ukraine deserves some more liberation scenes this year.

[Josquius]

I agree with this piece.
The difficult battle isn't the actual battle. It's getting western support.
Ukraine is sort of obliged to take some stupid risks if they make for good tv - I suspect they're filming a lot on the east bank and will be releasing it in time.

MILITARY & STRATEGIC:
AMERICAN PUBLIC THINK ISRAEL IS MORE IMPORTANT


A recent US poll had 81% of Americans believing that the Israel-Hamas conflict was more important to them than the situation in Ukraine. In terms of immediacy that might be understandable. The fact is the war in Ukraine has this year failed to produce any dramatic shift on the ground, and as I've said before, Americans like winners. Big winners. They don't have a lot of time for nearly won, did well, or look how bad the odds were. You either win and you're news, or they loose interest.
Even so, most Americans think Israel is now close to going too far and it's time for a ceasefire. The younger the respondent the more dramatically that demand rises.
The poll was about the situation in Israel for the most part, but it says a lot.
The Ukraine conflict has become a back burner issue for most Americans. They stopped Russia from winning, and Ukraine from losing, so unless Ukraine can really smash the Russians and expel them - and here we reach classic circular argument; more weapons will be forthcoming if victories are obtained, but victories cannot be obtained without more weapons. Congressional republicans are not being telephoned day in day out with demands for support for Ukraine, which means its not a big concern and something they won't give too much time to. Now strategic thinking tells you that the war and Ukraine fighting it for what amounts to 4% of the US defence budget, is a high value high return on investment policy. $60 billion to keep Russia ground into the mud of the frontlines and crippled from doing almost anything else is cheap - cynical but cheap.
Yet part of the problem is the stupidity of some representatives and senators who think it's actually tax payer Monet that being dolled out to Ukraine, when its nothing of the sort. Most of that money - 95% of it - is spent in the US replacing equipment that would have been scrapped or otherwise disposed of that's been sent to Ukraine. The ATACMS missiles a case in point. All of those sent so far were expired or expiring and were due for scrap - paid for 25 years ago, they would have cost money to dispose of. Now at least they've been used. Another examples is the Paladin - those that have been sent would have been scrap. The new M1209 Howitzer is a whole massive leap in capabilities over the nearly 60 year old M109 design. Politicians deliberately frame the cost of aid as tax payer dollars wasted and sent abroad because it sounds simple and gets voters angry.
So the question is how does Ukraine, valiantly fighting for the freedom of us all, get past the US news shows and get back in front of the public eye? 
It has to win something, it has to grab the limelight. And publicity seeking activities in military terms, are often the worst to conceive of and frequently lack depth or substance, while costing more than they should.
President Zelensky has done everything he can for a long time, he's kept his country in the public eye for longer than most have ever managed.  But its old news now, unless you're Ukrainian or one of those as we all are, who support them and who know what the cost of this war is and how much it truly matters.
In so many ways you are the torch that carries the flame of Ukraine's victory in your respective countries, you know, you understand how much it matters. Your words to every friend, every colleague, your interest and capability to talk of it, support it and make it clear why it matters, makes a difference.
They say individuals don't matter. But they do. Every last one of you matters, that you believe in Ukraine matters, that you show your support matters. It cannot be forgotten, it cannot be allowed to fall by the wayside. It's people like you, and me that just won't let that happen. Never miss a chance to say something. Don't be afraid to say it. You make a difference. We all do. One day I hope some of us will meet in Ukraine, stand on Maidan Square with the Ukraine, EU, US and UK flags flying. And know we did something to make sure Ukraine is free.


I do this because I think it's right and I shall go to my grave in time knowing it. Keeping the world a better place.
Until the day comes the fight goes on.  Thank you, one and all for keeping the flame alive.

SLAVA UKRAINE 🇺🇦! [/quote¥

[Zoupa]

It seems like Ukraine has established a firm beachhead on across the Dneiper river?

Good news if true.

I don't think it will amount to anything. The town on the left side of the Dnipro is destroyed to smithereens. They probably have a maximum of 200 guys operating in it or in the forest just south. Resupply is a nightmare, and there is no realistic way to transfer heavy equipment. It's mostly guys running FPV drones into anything that moves.

I think they can be a nuisance, but I see it more as a deep recon group of saboteurs rather than an actual beach head you could expand out of.

[Barrister]

It seems like Ukraine has established a firm beachhead on across the Dneiper river?

Good news if true.

I don't think it will amount to anything. The town on the left side of the Dnipro is destroyed to smithereens. They probably have a maximum of 200 guys operating in it or in the forest just south. Resupply is a nightmare, and there is no realistic way to transfer heavy equipment. It's mostly guys running FPV drones into anything that moves.

I think they can be a nuisance, but I see it more as a deep recon group of saboteurs rather than an actual beach head you could expand out of.

It sounds like it's more serious than that, and that they have moved heavy equipment to the left bank.

That being said it seems more like a manouveur designed to try and divert Russian forces from other fronts.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I agree with this piece.
The difficult battle isn't the actual battle. It's getting western support.
Ukraine is sort of obliged to take some stupid risks if they make for good tv - I suspect they're filming a lot on the east bank and will be releasing it in time.

article

agree, in full.
And that is an indictment of western attitudes more than anything else. It's exactly the bs that Putin is counting on to win in the end: the absolute inability of the West (its citizenry and politicians) to have more focus than a goldfish.

[Zoupa]

It seems like Ukraine has established a firm beachhead on across the Dneiper river?

Good news if true.

I don't think it will amount to anything. The town on the left side of the Dnipro is destroyed to smithereens. They probably have a maximum of 200 guys operating in it or in the forest just south. Resupply is a nightmare, and there is no realistic way to transfer heavy equipment. It's mostly guys running FPV drones into anything that moves.

I think they can be a nuisance, but I see it more as a deep recon group of saboteurs rather than an actual beach head you could expand out of.

It sounds like it's more serious than that, and that they have moved heavy equipment to the left bank.

That being said it seems more like a manouveur designed to try and divert Russian forces from other fronts.

I've seen no evidence of heavy equipment. Several pro-UA accounts posted a grainy picture of an amphibious APC, but it's been debunked as a still from a training exercise several years back.

[Grey Fox]

Noel thinks they've advanced towards Kozachi Laheri but yeah, no signs of heavy equipment yet.