Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Sheilbh]

Also that's purely on the Russian side. I can't see how you end up with a stable border or peace when, in that poll, you've got 70% of people wanting to fight to victory which 90% define as the return of all Ukrainian territory.

At best you're setting up a pre-WW1 Balkans complete with nationalists across new international borders and an empire looking for a pretext.

Edit: And obviously Ukraine's a democratic society - I do not see any route for accepting their dismemberment given that polling.

[Admiral Yi]

As I said, there was no such want in the Donbas until Russians dressed as freedom fighters came to Donbas.  To grant a referendum based on a situation created entirely by an act of aggression is to reward said aggression, as well to legitimize a Russian fiction.

What is your evidence for this assertion?

[PJL]

I suspect we will eventually go to war with Russia and possibly China too. I am struck by the similarities between the Sino-Japanese war and what we have now in Ukraine. Seeing as how the former played out and given the fact we are slowly strangling Russia economically, this will make her more and more cornered, and feeling that she has less to lose by striking out a third party. In the meantime Russia will do deals with others such as Iran & North Korea, and forge closer ties with China. For the West, the real threat are as usual from the left & right fringes accusing the West of imperialistic designs and being immoral (and Russia the true champion of conservative values) respectively.

Given that, if I were Ukraine, I would not accept a ceasefire unless Russia withdrew to at least pre 2022 lines and NATO membership was guaranteed immediately afterwards. Otherwise they might as well fight on indefinitely, even if Western aid dried up.

[Valmy]

I suspect we will eventually go to war with Russia and possibly China too.

I don't think so. From a strictly Bismarck point of view I think we have what we want with Russia right now. They are rapidly sapping their strength in a war that will give them very little in victory. Russia has few resources to widen the war and I don't see why we would want to do so.

China is a different story.

Given that, if I were Ukraine, I would not accept a ceasefire unless Russia withdrew to at least pre 2022 lines and NATO membership was guaranteed immediately afterwards. Otherwise they might as well fight on indefinitely, even if Western aid dried up.

The Ukrainians have been willing to fight in the past when they had zero chance at victory. When they were at war with the Reds, the Whites, and Poland all at the same time. When they were at war with the Nazis and the Soviets at the same time. Pretty sure they will fight on this time.

And really Ukraine was already in a bad situation after decades of Soviet misrule. Their only hope to have a bright future is to reduce Russian control over them as much as possible. Russia already letting their own country rot, decay, and collapse outside of St. Peteresburg and Moscow. I don't think any part of Ukraine that falls into their hands is going to do much better.

[Barrister]

As I said, there was no such want in the Donbas until Russians dressed as freedom fighters came to Donbas.  To grant a referendum based on a situation created entirely by an act of aggression is to reward said aggression, as well to legitimize a Russian fiction.

What is your evidence for this assertion?

The usual evidence for the assertion is that all regions of Ukraine, including Donetsk/Luhansk, voted in favour of Independence back in 1991.  Even in Crimea - support was the lowest, but it was still in the 50s-60s.

[PJL]

So in which case, Jos's referendum argument has already been answered - all regions voted to go with Ukrainian independence. Granted this was 30 years ago, so there could be a case for perhaps holding it again, but you could say that for any country.

So the alternative would have been funding separatists supporting a referendum in the most Russian supporting areas. But of course Putin never really wanted that before 2014 anyway, a compliant client state a la Belarus was his preferred option. After 2014, that would certainly have been the smart option for Putin to take (and something Russia has done before - see 18th century Poland as an example).

But the Crimean annexation and 'LGM' intervention in Donbass put paid to that. So I see no option for a 'cross border' poll (as effectively that is what is would be for the Donbass area & Crimea) in the current circumstances. At a minimum such a referendum should only be held at least 15 years (as in Saarland after WW1) and ideally 30 years after the current conflict.

[Josquius]

30 years is plenty of time that something could have changed.
With how close things were in crimea especially I don't think it's wrong to dismiss outright the idea that they would have voted to join Russia in a fair referendum.

And yes. I say this for any country. It should be a universal part of international law.

Also that's purely on the Russian side. I can't see how you end up with a stable border or peace when, in that poll, you've got 70% of people wanting to fight to victory which 90% define as the return of all Ukrainian territory.

At best you're setting up a pre-WW1 Balkans complete with nationalists across new international borders and an empire looking for a pretext.

Edit: And obviously Ukraine's a democratic society - I do not see any route for accepting their dismemberment given that polling.

I dunno. It's maybe me being overly optimistic but I'm sort of seeing shades of Ireland in Ukraine - in Ireland as you say the shit reaction to the Easter rising did a lot, but massively under rated as a factor is also how heavily war deaths fell on the loyalist population.
As much as Russia exaggerated the existence of nazis in Ukraine they were a thing that existed.... And in a war against fascists your own conflicting fascists make for useful bullet sponges.
I do hope progressive values will be the ultimate victor out of it all with two flavours of regression greatly weakened.

As to the polling... As mentioned it reads kind of questionable to me.
Polling like that in war time when there's an atmosphere of not wanting to appear anti war and a fear of government repression for being too pro Russian, and then they're given a pretty binary vote... And of course it's what's your aim rather than what will you settle for - it's a lot harder to gauge this since if you say you'll settle for something it really weakens your reach and makes hitting even that less likely.

[Zoupa]

As I said, there was no such want in the Donbas until Russians dressed as freedom fighters came to Donbas.  To grant a referendum based on a situation created entirely by an act of aggression is to reward said aggression, as well to legitimize a Russian fiction.

What is your evidence for this assertion?

[Admiral Yi]

I like Beeb's evidence more.

[Barrister]

I dunno. It's maybe me being overly optimistic but I'm sort of seeing shades of Ireland in Ukraine - in Ireland as you say the shit reaction to the Easter rising did a lot, but massively under rated as a factor is also how heavily war deaths fell on the loyalist population.
As much as Russia exaggerated the existence of nazis in Ukraine they were a thing that existed.... And in a war against fascists your own conflicting fascists make for useful bullet sponges.
I do hope progressive values will be the ultimate victor out of it all with two flavours of regression greatly weakened.

As to the polling... As mentioned it reads kind of questionable to me.
Polling like that in war time when there's an atmosphere of not wanting to appear anti war and a fear of government repression for being too pro Russian, and then they're given a pretty binary vote... And of course it's what's your aim rather than what will you settle for - it's a lot harder to gauge this since if you say you'll settle for something it really weakens your reach and makes hitting even that less likely.

I can't believe you're hitting up "Ukrainian nazis" as a talking point.

Ukraine has a nazi problem the same way the UK has a nazi problem.  If you squint real hard you can find a nazi or two, but in a huge country you're going to find just about any kind of political view.

In the last Ukrainian parliamentary election, the ultranationalist party won 2% of the vote, not enough to enter the Rada.

Many Ukrainian nationalists did work with the Nazis during WWII, Stepan Bandera amongst them.  I find it impossible to hold that against Ukraine though when you consider Ukraine ahd just gone through a fucking genocide a few years earlier orchestrated by the USSR, so obviously "the enemy of my enemy is my friend".  It's not like the Allies were coming to the rescue in Ukraine.

[Zoupa]

I like Beeb's evidence more.

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/04/world/europe/russias-hand-can-be-seen-in-the-protests.html?_r=0

[Barrister]

I like Beeb's evidence more.

I think you misunderstood Zoupa's perspective.

For all that I've disagreed with him on many topics, he's been a resolute defender of Ukraine online, and I believe self-identifies as a member of NAFO.

[Zoupa]

I like Beeb's evidence more.

I think you misunderstood Zoupa's perspective.

For all that I've disagreed with him on many topics, he's been a resolute defender of Ukraine online, and I believe self-identifies as a member of NAFO.

 

[Admiral Yi]

I think you misunderstood Zoupa's perspective.

For all that I've disagreed with him on many topics, he's been a resolute defender of Ukraine online, and I believe self-identifies as a member of NAFO.

I still don't understand Zoupa's perspective.  What do some internet memes have to do with the degree of support for annexation by Russia in the Donbas and Crimea?

[Sheilbh]

I dunno. It's maybe me being overly optimistic but I'm sort of seeing shades of Ireland in Ukraine - in Ireland as you say the shit reaction to the Easter rising did a lot, but massively under rated as a factor is also how heavily war deaths fell on the loyalist population.

That's not true. Proportionally about the same number of Irish Catholic served in the British Army in WW1 (and, interestingly, WW2) as Irish Protestant. There was no British conscription in Ireland or Northern Ireland but the Irish regiments of the British Army have always been a thing - and still are.

I don't think there's a comparison with Northern Ireland on more or less any point to be honest

As much as Russia exaggerated the existence of nazis in Ukraine they were a thing that existed.... And in a war against fascists your own conflicting fascists make for useful bullet sponges.

So this slightly depends on what we mean by that. Historically they were absolutely a thing and that has been a stream within Ukrainian nationalism - Ukraine is not unique in that. It is something we can see across Eastern European countries that were part of the USSR. I think one of the issues that sits under a lot of faultlines in European politics is actually to do with the historical memory of the war because the Eastern European experience and the agreed version that Western Europe healed over are not entirely the same - I think this war is pushing the Western version more in line with the Eastern.

Currently - they exist. They're not much of a thing. I think they won 2% of the vote. I can tell you one thing that would almost certainly see radicalised nationalism - agreeing to give up Ukrainian territory having spent many thousands of lives defending and trying to liberate it.

I do hope progressive values will be the ultimate victor out of it all with two flavours of regression greatly weakened.

To be absoluely clear a free, sovereign Ukraine is progressive and is in line with our values - just as much as national liberation in Ireland, across Africa and Asia were.

As to the polling... As mentioned it reads kind of questionable to me.
Polling like that in war time when there's an atmosphere of not wanting to appear anti war and a fear of government repression for being too pro Russian, and then they're given a pretty binary vote... And of course it's what's your aim rather than what will you settle for - it's a lot harder to gauge this since if you say you'll settle for something it really weakens your reach and makes hitting even that less likely.

Sure but you referred to it in support of your argument - I'm just pointing out it makes it look very, very difficult for a democratic society to actually start negotiating away territory.

And I think war makes things pretty binary: do you keep fighting or not.