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Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

Started by mongers, August 06, 2014, 03:12:53 PM

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Valmy

Quote from: Jacob on February 04, 2023, 08:17:45 PMAll carrot and no stick? That's pretty progressive for Putin's regime.

Well it's not all carrot. There are potatoes as well.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

Admiral Yi

All the felons who got let out for signing up, that's carrot.

mongers

#13127
Things not looking so good in Eastern Ukraine, the Russians seem determined to grind out some sort of 'victory', perhaps the capture/encirclement of Bakhmut before the 24th anniversary date.

I've seen reports that it's now the regular Russian army who're taking over from Wagner in the fighting there, I guess those 40,000* prison volunteers didn't last too long.


Can't remember where I heard it, but recently one estimate is 300,000 Russian casualties vs 100,000 dead or wounded Ukranians.

* worth a mention in the prison consent thread?


Incidentally this is a rather good photo:

"We have it in our power to begin the world over again"

grumbler

If the 400k casualty figures are correct, that's half a Verdun in much less than half the time of Verdun.
The future is all around us, waiting, in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.   -G'Kar

Bayraktar!

Zanza

The Ukrainian propaganda claims 130k dead Russians for the entire war so far.

Jacob

Quote from: Zanza on February 06, 2023, 12:01:07 AMThe Ukrainian propaganda claims 130k dead Russians for the entire war so far.

So if they have a 1:3 dead:wounded ratio that's about 400,000 casualties all told.

DGuller

What I've read on the Ukrainian reddit, which is obviously very pro-Ukraine, is that the picture is not so clear in Bakhmut.  We're led to believe that the Russians are throwing themselves at Ukrainians and are getting mowed down, but it seems like the more realistic picture is that the first line of Ukrainian defense often retreats under pressure, and the more experienced Ukrainian units are forced to retake the positions at enormous cost to themselves.

Legbiter

Quote from: Jacob on February 06, 2023, 12:14:54 AMSo if they have a 1:3 dead:wounded ratio that's about 400,000 casualties all told.

Pentagon quietly updated their casualty estimates up to about 200,000 Russian casualties KIA/WIA. January saw about 35 thousand Russian KIA since they spent most of the Wagnerites and the mobiks held back to receive "training" are now being fed into the lines. The next 100,000 dead mobiks should go much faster. :hmm:
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Legbiter

Quote from: mongers on February 05, 2023, 08:07:04 PMThings not looking so good in Eastern Ukraine, the Russians seem determined to grind out some sort of 'victory', perhaps the capture/encirclement of Bakhmut before the 24th anniversary date.

Bakhmut is weird because it sits on lowlands with hills overlooking it from the Ukrainian side. So the Russians will spend themselves taking it only to then run into the Ukrainian positions overlooking it.  :hmm:
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Zoupa

The moskals are moving north and south of Bakhmut too, so I'm not sure how tenable those positions are.

I think Ukraine will abandon the city within the next 2 weeks. I have zero military knowledge, this is just me looking at the map.

Threviel

The impression I get is that the Russians were/are sending in their Wagnerite cannon fodder and that the casualty rate is something like 1:3 or 1:4 in favor of the Ukrainians.

The problem is that the Wagnerites have no worth for the Russians, they are just cannon fodder whilst the Ukrainian casualties are trained troops that they can ill afford to lose. The exchange in practice favours the Russians and sometime about now they will be able to throw better trained troops at exhausted Ukrainian defenders.

I don't know how the Ukrainians handle this and hopefully they've spent their time building up their reserves.

Tamas

On a war podcast I follow by a couple of British dudes, they were talking to some ex-war correspondent guy who went to the lines behind Bakhmut a few weeks ago and talked to Ukrainians there. One solider complained to him that their casualties are similar to Russian ones mostly due to the artillery and mortar supremacy of the Russians - they are being bombarded constantly and cannot reply at all basically, as they have next to arties of their own.

Josquius

Quote from: Threviel on February 06, 2023, 04:41:23 AMThe impression I get is that the Russians were/are sending in their Wagnerite cannon fodder and that the casualty rate is something like 1:3 or 1:4 in favor of the Ukrainians.

The problem is that the Wagnerites have no worth for the Russians, they are just cannon fodder whilst the Ukrainian casualties are trained troops that they can ill afford to lose. The exchange in practice favours the Russians and sometime about now they will be able to throw better trained troops at exhausted Ukrainian defenders.

I don't know how the Ukrainians handle this and hopefully they've spent their time building up their reserves.

This is basically  what I've heard. Russia has been grinding the Ukrainians with meat, killing a few of them and generally wearing down their morale, also throwing them into a false sense of security with what the Russians are doing.
Come the end of the month they'll send a real attack again.
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Legbiter

Hope the Ukrainians have cluster munitions to deal with the upcoming meatwaves.
Posted using 100% recycled electrons.

celedhring

Quote from: Tamas on February 06, 2023, 04:45:15 AMOn a war podcast I follow by a couple of British dudes, they were talking to some ex-war correspondent guy who went to the lines behind Bakhmut a few weeks ago and talked to Ukrainians there. One solider complained to him that their casualties are similar to Russian ones mostly due to the artillery and mortar supremacy of the Russians - they are being bombarded constantly and cannot reply at all basically, as they have next to arties of their own.

Tbf, that's exactly the same thing we were hearing when Russia was taking Severodonetsk, etc... and then the Kherson/Kharkiv offensives happened.

What I mean, is that we probably know nothing.