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Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

Started by mongers, August 06, 2014, 03:12:53 PM

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Legbiter

Quote from: Maladict on December 05, 2022, 02:36:56 PMWhat's the plan for Russia at this point? By now they must realize Europe isn't going to freeze this winter, and the odds are only going to get worse on the battlefield.

Conscript meat roughly holds the line over winter while replacements are trained up. Come spring the Russians have a new Kitchener's Army to resume offensive operations.  :hmm: 
Posted using 100% recycled electrons.

Barrister

Quote from: Maladict on December 05, 2022, 02:36:56 PMWhat's the plan for Russia at this point? By now they must realize Europe isn't going to freeze this winter, and the odds are only going to get worse on the battlefield.

Plan is just to hang on I think.

They're taking a mostly defensive posture (except for Bakhmut).  Try to hold on to the territory they have and wait for Europe and the US to get tired of the war.  It's not a terrible strategy - it's what the Taliban or the North Vietnamese used to win.  And maybe if Trump wins in 2024 he'll pull the US out of Europe entirely.

If the EU/US ceased all support for Ukraine I doubt the country would be able to put up the same kind of organized opposition.  I don't think the Russians could pacify the country, but would probably turn it into a European Syria where the country is just devastated.

But how long can both the Russian economy, and Russian military, hold out?  The Russians are really running out of long-range missiles and are pursuing the questionable strategy of using what they have on civilian infrastructure, rather than military targets.  Plus the mobilizations (almost certain to be another round) will take an increasing toll on the economy.
Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

mongers

"We have it in our power to begin the world over again"

Tamas

Heard a podcast where they invited some Russian academic (living abroad I believe). He was convinced if Ukraine and the West holds out this winter, Putin's system will not survive to see 2024. He said the only card left for Putin, the one he is paying now, is hoping to freeze Ukrainians and Europeans enough during the winter that they have enough of the war. If we reach spring time with resistance still ongoing, his defeat will be undeniable, there'll be no hope left for his supporters to cling onto.

PDH

Quote from: Tamas on December 05, 2022, 04:41:43 PMHeard a podcast where they invited some Russian academic (living abroad I believe). He was convinced if Ukraine and the West holds out this winter, Putin's system will not survive to see 2024. He said the only card left for Putin, the one he is paying now, is hoping to freeze Ukrainians and Europeans enough during the winter that they have enough of the war. If we reach spring time with resistance still ongoing, his defeat will be undeniable, there'll be no hope left for his supporters to cling onto.

This has a certain logic to it.  Therefore, it is not something that the Russian mind is capable of understanding.  I brand this fake news.
I have come to believe that the whole world is an enigma, a harmless enigma that is made terrible by our own mad attempt to interpret it as though it had an underlying truth.
-Umberto Eco

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"I'm pretty sure my level of depression has nothing to do with how much of a fucking asshole you are."

-CdM

Legbiter

Quote from: Tamas on December 05, 2022, 04:41:43 PMHeard a podcast where they invited some Russian academic (living abroad I believe). He was convinced if Ukraine and the West holds out this winter, Putin's system will not survive to see 2024.

Hopefully the Russian military will be soundly defeated in 2023 and Russia itself fully de-satanized and brought into the Lutheran fold by early 2024. Specifically of course as promulgated by the Uppsala Synod of 1593. :contract:  :pope: 
Posted using 100% recycled electrons.

The Brain

Women want me. Men want to be with me.

The Brain

Lavrov has complained about Swedish unisex bathrooms. "Inhuman". This timeline is weird.
Women want me. Men want to be with me.

Crazy_Ivan80

Quote from: The Brain on December 07, 2022, 02:46:40 PMLavrov has complained about Swedish unisex bathrooms. "Inhuman". This timeline is weird.
Let's hope it's in the middle of the gauss-curve so that at least half of the other realities are worse.

Iormlund

Quote from: The Brain on December 07, 2022, 02:46:40 PMLavrov has complained about Swedish unisex bathrooms. "Inhuman". This timeline is weird.

Remember when we thought the world had gone crazy after Brexit and Trump?
I can't even fathom what new depths of despair 2023 has in store for us.

viper37

Putin: Only Russia can protect Ukraine from Polish invasion


QuoteAccording to Vladimir Putin, Poland has grand designs on Ukraine and has made the bold claim that Russia is the country's only saving grace. According to Faytuks News, Putin claims that Russia is the only guarantor of Ukraine's territorial integrity.
[...]

I don't do meditation.  I drink alcohol to relax, like normal people.

If Microsoft Excel decided to stop working overnight, the world would practically end.

Eddie Teach

Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on December 07, 2022, 02:58:00 PM
Quote from: The Brain on December 07, 2022, 02:46:40 PMLavrov has complained about Swedish unisex bathrooms. "Inhuman". This timeline is weird.
Let's hope it's in the middle of the gauss-curve so that at least half of the other realities are worse.

This is the best of all possible worlds. /pangloss
To sleep, perchance to dream. But in that sleep of death, what dreams may come?

Admiral Yi

Quote from: viper37 on December 08, 2022, 01:48:07 AMPutin: Only Russia can protect Ukraine from Polish invasion


QuoteAccording to Vladimir Putin, Poland has grand designs on Ukraine and has made the bold claim that Russia is the country's only saving grace. According to Faytuks News, Putin claims that Russia is the only guarantor of Ukraine's territorial integrity.
[...]



That sounds like a diplomatic opening.

Syt

I am, somehow, less interested in the weight and convolutions of Einstein's brain than in the near certainty that people of equal talent have lived and died in cotton fields and sweatshops.
—Stephen Jay Gould

Proud owner of 42 Zoupa Points.

Zanza

Not sure who that is supposed to attack... Just Zelensky or also FDR and Obama? If it is the former, just Zelensky,surely there are better candidates to provide poor company for him. Like Stalin and Khomeini or so.