Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Zoupa]

The Ukrainians will keep fighting with or without our help. They know what happens under russian occupation.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I wonder more broadly from fight to the end types: what about the US political situation?

This phrasing, and to be honest it feels like you have used it repeatedly, assumes that Americans are drawing a line of "fighting to the end." The decision is not ours to fight to the end. Our decision is how much funding to give Ukraine and what type of support to give Ukraine. We have zero role in deciding when Ukraine should stop fighting. If Ukraine is interested in a negotiated settlement, we should offer to involve our diplomatic corps and influence to help them in that process. Ukraine is not our vassal or client state, it is not our responsibility, from either an ethical or even a strategic stance, to attempt to guide Ukrainian foreign policy.

The republicans are outright saying that they won't support Ukraine.

This is patently false. The actual Republican elected officials or candidates who are outright saying they want to stop any and all support for Ukraine is very small, I don't know of more than 10 and most are in the House caucus where they would be a very small part of the caucus.

The Republican leadership of Congress would be Kevin McCarthy and Mitch McConnell. Mitch is very strong on Ukraine support. McCarthy has repeatedly said he has no plan to cease funding for Ukraine. He did state that Ukraine would not have a "blank check", and actually clarified that what he means by that is that he would see that committees under his Speakership did due diligence and review of administration requests for funds. This is not remotely close to "stopping support." Even more, the actual Republicans who would be on the relevant committee, including the future committee chairman, has said he has no expectation of ceasing aid to Ukraine and that he is strongly in favor of it. The House is a very committee driven body, if you have the future head of the committee slated to push for continued Ukraine funding that means it will not have a significant problem getting the vote to the floor since McCarthy has not remotely indicated he would block bringing it to the floor.

Once it is to the floor you need maybe 25 Republicans at most for it to pass with the full support of the Democratic caucus. It would be extremely unlikely that so few Republicans would support the vote on the floor. I do expect you'll see a decent chunk of Republicans voting against it--not because they are really against it, but the House Freedom Caucus especially when they are in the opposition, like to "create record" of voting against any distribution of government funds. Note that this tends to be more prominent on votes they know will pass anyway.

Donald Trump for all the shitty terrible things he did, sent more money and more equipment to Ukraine than Barack Obama did, this was in spite of him being continually labeled a Russian Agent. The issue in the theory that the Republicans will gut Ukraine funding is there is a degree of "American pride" that gets tied up in it. If the Republicans are running the government, and they gut funding, and then Ukraine collapses, they have to basically take the ownership of "losing to Russia." Even America First Republicans like Donald Trump care quite a bit about avoiding being directly associated with "losing" of any kind.

There is a reason Trump negotiated an absolute loser of an agreement with the Taliban, but then chose to never fully withdraw from the country while in office--despite expressing a desire to do so. It's because he did not want to directly be exposed to "owning the loss."

The reality is U.S. foreign policy as it relates to matters of war, tends to be incredibly "sticky" despite party changes, even when one party is significantly against. There is a reason Democrats railed about getting out of Iraq and Afghanistan for most of Bush's Presidency, and then once in power didn't get out of Afghanistan, and in fact really tried to not get out of Iraq. Obama ran on getting out of Iraq and indicated he wanted to early in his term, but fairly quickly he actually went back on that and tried to negotiate a Status of Forces agreement that would have continued (perpetually) a small U.S. military mission in Iraq (most likely he did this after being fully briefed on the situation in the country), but no agreement could be reached between the Obama and Maliki administrations--primarily because Maliki was largely a proxy for Iran.

[Legbiter]

If the Russians had accomplished a fait accompli in Ukraine, the Ukrainian military had refused to fight and all that was going on in Ukraine right now was minor mopping up by a new Russia-backed Ukrainian regime then the West would have slapped on cosmetic sanctions, beefed up NATO and called it a day. As it is Russia is daily humiliated, decidedly on the backfoot and desperately trying to use conscript meat to hold a 1000 km long front. They're betting on fantasies like the Republicans saving them, Europeans freezing in their hovels this winter, Iranian missiles and North Korean artillery ammunition along with their 60's Cold War stockpiles...

[Barrister]

This is patently false. The actual Republican elected officials or candidates who are outright saying they want to stop any and all support for Ukraine is very small, I don't know of more than 10 and most are in the House caucus where they would be a very small part of the caucus.

While I wouldn't say "The republicans are outright saying that they won't support Ukraine.", I think there is more danger here then you imply.

The number of house members saying explicitly they won't support Ukraine is small, but the GOP margin in the House will be small.  McCarthy has made it pretty clear he won't get on the wrong side of the Freedom Caucus.  And then figure in what happens once Trump announces for President (like tomorrow) and runs around the country complaining about sending money to a "shithole country" like Ukraine.

[Valmy]

Europeans freezing in their hovels this winter

Unfortunately for them, General Winter seems to have been late arriving this year.

[PJL]

Europeans freezing in their hovels this winter

Unfortunately for them, General Winter seems to have been late arriving this year.

Well General Winter isn't as good as he used to be, thanks to climate change. Oh the irony of a petrostate that helped in some way to bring that about now pinig it's hopes on a cold cold winter. One of the few good things to have come about from global warming.

[Sheilbh]

Well General Winter isn't as good as he used to be, thanks to climate change. Oh the irony of a petrostate that helped in some way to bring that about now pinig it's hopes on a cold cold winter. One of the few good things to have come about from global warming.

Yeah. On the one hand I've not had to turn the heating on yet and it's helpful in the economic fight with Russia, on the other the world is on fire

[bad img]

Very much a mixed bag that October's been so unseasonably warm (third warmest on record across Europe).

[Barrister]

Well General Winter isn't as good as he used to be, thanks to climate change. Oh the irony of a petrostate that helped in some way to bring that about now pinig it's hopes on a cold cold winter. One of the few good things to have come about from global warming.

Yeah. On the one hand I've not had to turn the heating on yet and it's helpful in the economic fight with Russia, on the other the world is on fire


Very much a mixed bag that October's been so unseasonably warm (third warmest on record across Europe).

I just wanted to whine about the big dark blue blob over Canada... :brr:

[Zoupa]

It was 23 degrees in Montreal the other day. Here in the "warmest place in Canada"? -5.

Climate change is fuuuuun.

[Barrister]

Just to be clear: I'm not saying climate change isn't real.  More just a reminder that temperatures don't automatically go up by the same amount in all places at the same time.

Plus I wanted to whine again about being cold.

[Grey Fox]

It was 23 degrees in Montreal the other day. Here in the "warmest place in Canada"? -5.

Climate change is fuuuuun.

It was great for us but my pivoines are lost & started growing again. 

[Zoupa]

Just to be clear: I'm not saying climate change isn't real.  More just a reminder that temperatures don't automatically go up by the same amount in all places at the same time.

Plus I wanted to whine again about being cold.

Oh I didn't take your post as a climate change denier thing  . I just also wanted to pile on the "wtf why is winter here already" vibe.

[Barrister]

Oh wait - that map was for October - 2020.

But anyways.  It's cold.  It was -17c when I started my car this morning.

[Sheilbh]

Oh wait - that map was for October - 2020.

But anyways.  It's cold.  It was -17c when I started my car this morning.

Oh shit soz - I'll find the recent one it's similar.

Edit: 2022:

[Sheilbh]

Shoigu ordering a Russian withdrawal from west of the Dnipro on live TV - I think positioned as a recommendation he accepted.