Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Berkut]

US war Hawks are not wasting this chance because Russia claims peace. There's someone willing and capable to significantly degrade Russia's military capabilities at the cost of no american life. That's an opportunity that only comes once a century.

I am glad we finally figured out who is truly to blame for this war.

Russia?

They, like everyone else, are merely pawns for the US war hawks.

Really? Why do you think so?

For the exact same reason you think US war hawks can force other countries to stay at war, of course. 

[Admiral Yi]

Really? Why do you think so?

The way you phrased your original comment made it seem Ukraine does not have any agency, and the ultimate decision rests with the US.

[Habbaku]

Even better, Russia lacks agency too. The only agent in the entire world is the USA.

[Malthus]

Even better, Russia lacks agency too. The only agent in the entire world is the USA.

This war has brought out a lot of odd Tankie style talking points - most common being that either the whole thing id the fault of the US and/or NATO, or at best, that 'both sides' are to blame (the two "sides" being the US/NATO and Russia).

The notion that Ukraine might have agency just gets forgotten.

This "open letter" in response to Chomsky (who is typical of the breed) lays it out:

https://www.e-flux.com/notes/470005/open-letter-to-noam-chomsky-and-other-like-minded-intellectuals-on-the-russia-ukraine-war

Chomsky on western propaganda:

https://www.newsweek.com/noam-chomsky-says-ukraine-desire-heavy-weapons-western-propaganda-1706473?amp=1

[Berkut]

Even better, Russia lacks agency too. The only agent in the entire world is the USA.

This war has brought out a lot of odd Tankie style talking points - most common being that either the whole thing id the fault of the US and/or NATO, or at best, that 'both sides' are to blame (the two "sides" being the US/NATO and Russia).

The notion that Ukraine might have agency just gets forgotten.

This "open letter" in response to Chomsky (who is typical of the breed) lays it out:

https://www.e-flux.com/notes/470005/open-letter-to-noam-chomsky-and-other-like-minded-intellectuals-on-the-russia-ukraine-war

Chomsky on western propaganda:

https://www.newsweek.com/noam-chomsky-says-ukraine-desire-heavy-weapons-western-propaganda-1706473?amp=1

Great bit here, maybe GF could take a read:

Whether willingly or unwillingly, your interviews insinuate that Ukrainians are fighting with Russians because the US instigated them to do so, that Euromaidan happened because the US tried to detach Ukraine from the Russian sphere of influence, etc. Such an attitude denies the agency of Ukraine and is a slap in the face to millions of Ukrainians who are risking their lives for the desire to live in a free country. Simply put, have you considered the possibility that Ukrainians would like to detach from the Russian sphere of influence due to a history of genocide, cultural oppression, and constant denial of the right to self-determination?

[Berkut]

I've never understood the left wing fetish for Noam Chomsky. He is demonstrably a dishonest intellect.

He is about as credible as Jordan Peterson.

[Admiral Yi]

Even better, Russia lacks agency too. The only agent in the entire world is the USA.

That's stretching things a bit.  After all, he was responding to my post about Russia requesting a cease fire.  Requesting a cease fire requires agency.

[crazy canuck]

US war Hawks are not wasting this chance because Russia claims peace. There's someone willing and capable to significantly degrade Russia's military capabilities at the cost of no american life. That's an opportunity that only comes once a century.

I am glad we finally figured out who is truly to blame for this war.

Russia?

They, like everyone else, are merely pawns for the US war hawks.

I don't think GF was making a comment about who started the war, but rather the strategic opportunity which now presents itself for hawks.

[Admiral Yi]

That's really mind blowing by Noam.

Howard Zinn's position, that the correct response to all aggression, including Nazi Germany, is nonviolent protest, makes more sense than that nonsense.  At least Howard didn't disregard facts.

[Jacob]

Even better, Russia lacks agency too. The only agent in the entire world is the USA.

I see how GF's words could come across like that, but what I think GF meant was the Russia requesting a ceasefire will not move the US to pressure Ukraine to accept, because there's a sufficient constituency in the US who think it's a good strategic opportunity to whack Russia solidly on the nose and/ or do well from military manufacturing.

And while I don't know if that's true (I think there's a smidgeon too many pro-Putin / America First types in the GOP to count on them supporting Ukraine in case they win - especially now that CNN appears to have moved to be pro-GOP as well), I hope it holds true.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Noam is and has always been an absolute idiot on history, foreign policy etc. He is a linguist by training and shows little aptitude for anything else.

As for Ukraine--my main thought right now is Putin cannot allow the war to end in a way that doesn't include some level of victory for Russia. It would do too much to unravel his idea of rebuilding the Russian Empire. So, what out does Russia have that lets Putin get some kind of win?

I have to think at least on some level he still assumes that given enough time his country's greater resources and population will win the day.

[Jacob]

Yeah, I think Putin's play is to keep on going no matter the pain for the populations of Russia and Ukraine, and eventually outlast the Ukrainian will to fight and the Western will to support Ukraine.

Perhaps the wanton destruction and cruelty inflicted by the Russian army is not purely due to poor discipline and moral bankruptcy, but maybe it's also part of a deliberate strategy to make Ukraine suffer as much as possible in the belief that it will degrade their will to fight. Because while Ukraine has superior morale, equipment, and training the things Putin has more of than Ukraine is lack of moral decency and willingness to engage in abject cruelty and destruction... and looking back at Putin's trajectory, those are the strengths that has given him the victories he's had so far.

The question, of course, is whether internal challenges will mount against Putin before he manages to outlast Ukraine... because I don't think Ukraine is anywhere near being outlasted at this point.

In the short term, I think Putin's biggest chances for relief is GOP victories in 2022 and 2024, with America First and pro-authocracy Republicans undermining American support for Ukraine... though while I fear that may come to pass, it's not a given that it will.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I don't think Republican electoral victories are a major risk. Trump actually did more than Obama ever did to funnel money and support to Ukraine, for example. It's not that I don't think there are Russia-favoring people in the GOP, or even that Trump himself doesn't favor Russia to some degree, it's that the situation is such that the GOP and Trump can't look "weak" on Russia in comparison to a Democrat. That's a more powerful motivator than most would think.

[Legbiter]

I think the "plan" is to hold on to the land he has while more units are created.  There's creepy video of the founder of Wagner going into a Russian jail, promising prisoners who join up they'll never come back to prison: they either serve for six months on the front lines, or if you decide you don't want to fight they'll shoot you.

Yeah saw it. Penal Dirlewanger units like these are maybe useful for rear actions against defenseless, unarmed civilians but probably worse than useless in an offensive war. 

[Grey Fox]

Really? Why do you think so?

The way you phrased your original comment made it seem Ukraine does not have any agency, and the ultimate decision rests with the US.

Oh. I didn't mean that. Ukraine's aim have been stated clearly. A return to the 1990s borders.

Like Jacob explain (he really gets me), I think that no move from Russia will get the US to back down from support Ukraine. The opportunity is too good to pass.

I know I am extremely left but I am not a tankie. Russia is the enemy. Having the USA has the hegemon is sometimes very annoying but I have no desire to replace it with the Xi-Putin project.