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Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

Started by mongers, August 06, 2014, 03:12:53 PM

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Tamas

Quote from: Zoupa on August 09, 2022, 01:11:17 PMWell looks like a bunch of vatniks are running away from Crimea after Ukraine hit their base this morning...

The Telegraphy's short video came up for this on Youtube. One Russian lady was crying she is so sad to leave it was so nice like they were home.

M.F.ers were holidaying pretty much next door to a war started by their country. Disgusting.

celedhring

I love all the clips from Russians saying they are so sad about what's happening, like it's some sort of natural disaster they couldn't do anything about.

Legbiter

Quote from: celedhring on August 10, 2022, 09:23:25 AMI love all the clips from Russians saying they are so sad about what's happening, like it's some sort of natural disaster they couldn't do anything about.

Yeah annoying wistful sadness like this is a bad forest fire...
Posted using 100% recycled electrons.

Zoupa

I wonder what can be done with current inhabitants of Crimea once/if Ukraine takes it back.

The 2014 referendum was rigged of course, but I think even if it hadn't been, with international observers giving it an A+, the "join russia" option probably would have won.

OttoVonBismarck

I consider it highly unlikely Ukraine ever gets Crimea back, it would require Putin to be dead and his successors to decide they would rather have normalized relations than land that they never really needed in any case other than pride related reasons.

On top of that I think basically the entire peninsula is now Russian expats or strongly pro-Russian Ukrainians, I think they would be pretty resistant to being merged back with Kiev.

Zoupa


Josquius

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on August 10, 2022, 10:30:19 AMI consider it highly unlikely Ukraine ever gets Crimea back, it would require Putin to be dead and his successors to decide they would rather have normalized relations than land that they never really needed in any case other than pride related reasons.

On top of that I think basically the entire peninsula is now Russian expats or strongly pro-Russian Ukrainians, I think they would be pretty resistant to being merged back with Kiev.

We aren't talking about Kalingrad here though.
Crimea not that long gone that the native inhabitants who fled have given up on and forgotten their homes.
I'd expect quite a number of the newly arrived Russians to be pretty flaky.

Though  revisiting the earlier civil war talk interesting times do lie ahead as Ukraine reclaims lands in traditionally pro-Russian regions.
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Crazy_Ivan80

#9682
Quote from: Zoupa on August 10, 2022, 10:17:24 AMI wonder what can be done with current inhabitants of Crimea once/if Ukraine takes it back.

The 2014 referendum was rigged of course, but I think even if it hadn't been, with international observers giving it an A+, the "join russia" option probably would have won.

Ukraine could invite the Tatars and descendants back. And expel Russians of course. Call it a population transfer

Tonitrus

What really matters though, is if Russia considers Crmira enough "theirs", to resort to nukes if they think they risk losing it.  Which they have said.  I would guess that for Crimea, they would really mean it.

mongers

Quote from: Tonitrus on August 10, 2022, 02:11:12 PMWhat really matters though, is if Russia considers Crmira enough "theirs", to resort to nukes if they think they risk losing it.  Which they have said.  I would guess that for Crimea, they would really mean it.

Yes that's my view as well, a future Putin's Russia, firmly on the back foot to Ukrainian forces, decides to use tactical nukes to defend 'Russian soil'.

Also on the Crimea since the take over in 2014 a lot of the remaining Tartars had to flee because of persecution, many settled quite near the border in Southern Ukraine and so were force to flee again this year.

"We have it in our power to begin the world over again"

Zoupa

Putin is very, very scared of his own death. He's never going to go nuclear, as he knows that would be the end for him.

Jacob

At this point, I'm willing to defer to Putin's nuclear deterrent by not putting armies into what I consider Russia and driving towards Moscow*. Everything else - and that includes the Ukrainian territory of Crimea - pfeh.

(*obviously not my decision, but that's where I'd draw the lines)

Malthus

Quote from: Tonitrus on August 10, 2022, 02:11:12 PMWhat really matters though, is if Russia considers Crmira enough "theirs", to resort to nukes if they think they risk losing it.  Which they have said.  I would guess that for Crimea, they would really mean it.

One of the scarier outcomes of the mess Putin's Russia has landed itself and us in with its shitty invasion, is to create a 'boy cries wolf' atmosphere around nuclear threats.

Part of the price they pay for lying about, well, everything, is that their threats are not credible, and they have no way to communicate which are to be taken seriously.
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane—Marcus Aurelius

Tamas

I think we need to stop talking about tactical nukes. I don't see why those would be used in this conflict. They were, as I understand, made to be  used against massed armored formartions on the German front of the WW3 which never happened.

I don't think they would achieve anything Russia could not achieve with conventional artillery without risking M.A.D.


Tonitrus

I don't think they'd use a tactical nuke on a city (well, one that is not already rubbled by artillery anyway), or with a real tactical goal of eliminating a particular enemy formation...but more as a "demonstration" to stay back from territory that they are serious about.