Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Barrister]

Kyiv police bust up two nightclubs for violating curfew.  They serve 219 men notices to appear for military registration.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1541456291125665795

[Sheilbh]

I think that's what's happening DGuller. Fascism and other Reactionary forces are encouraged and brazen both in various domestic policies, and on the international scene.

It was expected, actually, as a reaction to modernity. However the expectation, I think, saw it as a natural transitional phase before modernity and progress carried on. Right now I admit to feeling more than a little worried that this transition is not a simple blip, but potentially a transition to a long, bloody, and miserable phase of reactionary ascendance.

I think we're experiencing "morbid symptoms". I think the, for want of a better word, neo-liberal order of the early post cold war is over. There are a number of factors that are driving us out of that era: climate, the rise of China, the financial crisis (and maybe QE too?) etc.

I don't think the outline is yet clear of what a new order or era - and I've no idea. I tend to be fairly optimistic. But in the same way as I'm fairly sure Biden's "restorationist project" isn't sufficient or won't succeed in response to Trump, I'm pretty sure any attempt to restore the post cold war/neo-liberal order will fail too. But I'm not sure yet that there's much attempt to think or imagine what the "new" might be - and in that is the crisis: continued climate breakdown, opportunistic use of force to re-write facts on the ground etc.

[Sheilbh]

This is a war crime, surely. Right?

Just horrendous - footage of the mall which gives a sense of scale too:
https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1541456349862690816?s=20&t=9bJsYt2UBhipIUssEkmP6A

Not sure if NATO has equipment that can help stop that type of attack, but if we do we should start sending it to Ukraine now

[DGuller]

I think that's what's happening DGuller. Fascism and other Reactionary forces are encouraged and brazen both in various domestic policies, and on the international scene.

It was expected, actually, as a reaction to modernity. However the expectation, I think, saw it as a natural transitional phase before modernity and progress carried on. Right now I admit to feeling more than a little worried that this transition is not a simple blip, but potentially a transition to a long, bloody, and miserable phase of reactionary ascendance.

I see it as shorter-term reactionary power.  The forces falling out of synch with a more modern, transnational, and changing culture are united to a degree in their fear and disdain.  They are far more able to initially strike and strike hard, as they are a more cohesive group than the other they fear.  That said, the attacks and dominance attempts will end up crystalizing opposition to their minority position.

Much like the invasion was what finally might have made Ukraine into something new, this period of revanchism and scorched earth tactics by the reactionary group will likely create what they fear the most (and believe is already there) an actual movement opposing them.

I find the current situation in the US most analogous to the period right before the Spanish Civil War.  For a while you have total war in the political arena, before the fascists finally make an overt military move.  The forces on the other side, despite starting with overwhelming advantage on paper, can't ever unite and get their shit in order, and the actual democrats get sidelined by the radicals on their own side.  The outcome wasn't that short term for the Spain, so hopefully this analogy doesn't apply too closely.

[crazy canuck]

Not sure how the Spanish analogy holds in a country with only two parties.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I think that's what's happening DGuller. Fascism and other Reactionary forces are encouraged and brazen both in various domestic policies, and on the international scene.

It was expected, actually, as a reaction to modernity. However the expectation, I think, saw it as a natural transitional phase before modernity and progress carried on. Right now I admit to feeling more than a little worried that this transition is not a simple blip, but potentially a transition to a long, bloody, and miserable phase of reactionary ascendance.

I see it as shorter-term reactionary power.  The forces falling out of synch with a more modern, transnational, and changing culture are united to a degree in their fear and disdain.  They are far more able to initially strike and strike hard, as they are a more cohesive group than the other they fear.  That said, the attacks and dominance attempts will end up crystalizing opposition to their minority position.

Much like the invasion was what finally might have made Ukraine into something new, this period of revanchism and scorched earth tactics by the reactionary group will likely create what they fear the most (and believe is already there) an actual movement opposing them.

I find the current situation in the US most analogous to the period right before the Spanish Civil War.  For a while you have total war in the political arena, before the fascists finally make an overt military move.  The forces on the other side, despite starting with overwhelming advantage on paper, can't ever unite and get their shit in order, and the actual democrats get sidelined by the radicals on their own side.  The outcome wasn't that short term for the Spain, so hopefully this analogy doesn't apply too closely.

could as well happen with the communists, given that they too are ascendant as the extremists they are.
Basically authoritarians.

[Admiral Yi]

I find the current situation in the US most analogous to the period right before the Spanish Civil War.  For a while you have total war in the political arena, before the fascists finally make an overt military move.

Perhaps a quibble, but an uprising of the Left preceded Franco's revolt by a few years.

[DGuller]

So I'm reading that Russia has defaulted on its debt for the first time in 100 years.  To be devil's advocate (no offense to the devil), can you really consider it a default when the debtor is not allowed to make a payment?  Russia certainly can afford to make a payment, and as far as I'm aware, they're willing to make it, but they're just prevented from doing that.  Certainly this is the logic that Russia would apply to others, they applied it to Navalny in a way, but lots of things Russia does should not be done by decent people.

[The Minsky Moment]

So I'm reading that Russia has defaulted on its debt for the first time in 100 years.  To be devil's advocate (no offense to the devil), can you really consider it a default when the debtor is not allowed to make a payment?  Russia certainly can afford to make a payment, and as far as I'm aware, they're willing to make it, but they're just prevented from doing that.  Certainly this is the logic that Russia would apply to others, they applied it to Navalny in a way, but lots of things Russia does should not be done by decent people.

I don't see the problem.  Russia will have an opportunity to present its case in a court with an independent judiciary, which is more than it would afford its adversaries.

[The Brain]

So I'm reading that Russia has defaulted on its debt for the first time in 100 years.

I read 1998.

[Jacob]

I find the current situation in the US most analogous to the period right before the Spanish Civil War.  For a while you have total war in the political arena, before the fascists finally make an overt military move.  The forces on the other side, despite starting with overwhelming advantage on paper, can't ever unite and get their shit in order, and the actual democrats get sidelined by the radicals on their own side.  The outcome wasn't that short term for the Spain, so hopefully this analogy doesn't apply too closely.

There are a few places where the parallels diverge, however.

For one: there is no external party equivalent to Nazi Germany militarily supporting the reactionaries in the Spanish Civil war.

Another one: there is no external party equivalent to the Soviet Union actively subverting the unity of the Republicans and pushing to co-opt the movement.

[Jacob]

could as well happen with the communists, given that they too are ascendant as the extremists they are.
Basically authoritarians.

I think it is very unlikely. The "communists" do not have widespread sympathy within the ranks of the American siloviki, nor do they have an ideologically aligned armed militia movement, or indeed a stated program of enacting violence and overthrowing the government. At their most radical they've said to stop spending money on policing.

Those are not strong preconditions for overthrowing the government, no matter how authoritarian you may find their positions in other areas.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

could as well happen with the communists, given that they too are ascendant as the extremists they are.
Basically authoritarians.

I think it is very unlikely. The "communists" do not have widespread sympathy within the ranks of the American siloviki, nor do they have an ideologically aligned armed militia movement, or indeed a stated program of enacting violence and overthrowing the government. At their most radical they've said to stop spending money on policing.

Those are not strong preconditions for overthrowing the government, no matter how authoritarian you may find their positions in other areas.

the west is bigger than the US, and it's not because they don't appear to be that dangerous yet they couldn't become even more dangerous in the future. Communism and it's adherents are as dangerous as their fascist counterparts and they really don't deserve the excuses that are being made for them all the time. Them being 'left' doesn't make them okay.

[DGuller]

There are a few places where the parallels diverge, however.

For one: there is no external party equivalent to Nazi Germany militarily supporting the reactionaries in the Spanish Civil war.

Another one: there is no external party equivalent to the Soviet Union actively subverting the unity of the Republicans and pushing to co-opt the movement.

We're not up to the shooting part of the analogy yet, we're still in a state of permanent political dysfunction and political total war.  I'd also say that in 21st century the troll armies can be just as effective as the military armies in the 20th century, and in that way (and many, many other ways) Russia has been playing the role of Nazi Germany.

[The Larch]

Hey, we had shooting AND political disfunction at the same time over here, mind you.