Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-15 + 2022 Invasion

Started by mongers, August 06, 2014, 03:12:53 PM

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Jacob

Quote from: Barrister on June 20, 2022, 12:37:59 PMTwitter thread by a professor from St Andrews University (Scotland) saying Ukrainian losses appear to have been quite over-stated by the Ukrainians, perhaps to gain western sympathy and support.  He points out that things are virtually a stalemete in Donbas, while Ukrainians are advancing and working towards liberating Kherson.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1537711726560481283

Phillips O'Brien tends to be pretty positive on Ukraine in general, but he's generally very good IMO.

Another person worth following IMO is Mick Ryan - a retired Australian general: https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1538335853860118528

Sheilbh

#9121
Quote from: Jacob on June 20, 2022, 10:19:35 AMPutin only has to hang on until the GOP gains power and sells out Ukraine.
I'm not sure he needs to wait that long. I think the crunch is probably this autumn/winter.

The sanctions on Russia will really start biting by about September/October - I think Putin's speech where he talked about Russia surviving the "economic blitzkrieg" was wrong, because the nature of those sanctions is the impact will increase and deepen over time but also the shortages (especially conticeable ones) will probably only be felt this autumn onwards.

Similarly by then cost of living/inflation is projected to peak in Europe, I imagine Putin may well turn off a lot of the gas and the impact of food shortages will be felt worldwide.

I think that's going to be the key moment. Then probably 2024.

Edit: And an example - also why I think the SPD are sadly a bit of an issue and that CEE states are the ones with clarity and a strategy, not France and Germany - Scholz's foreign policy adviser at a conference today:
QuoteNoah Barkin 🇺🇦
@noahbarkin
Summing up Jens Plötner @dgapev:
- Don't put RU & CN in one basket. Aim is to reduce rivalry w/CN
- Very worried about next US election
- Media should focus more on future ties w/RU, less on tank deliveries
- No EU membership discount for UKR just because it was attacked

It's old SPD thinking persisting about Russia and doubling down on that approach to China too :bleeding:
Let's bomb Russia!

Crazy_Ivan80

#9122
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGGwO99fQaI&ab_channel=Perun

the most recent video on the war.
Has an interesting section on how long states can keep up the fight, even in the face of massive daily losses.
conclusion: as long as there is national will to fight, they can keep fighting.

Quote from: Tonitrus on June 20, 2022, 12:30:13 PM
Quote from: Berkut on June 20, 2022, 10:56:49 AMStalemate is Ukraine winning.

I am concerned that the "honeymoon" period for Europe is over, as far as the public/emotional response to the war.

Yeah, almost every news/talkie bit I see from sources like Deutsche Welle (the english version) seem to be including "well, surely Ukraine will have negotiate/cede territory at some point, right?".

the quoted vid has some good examples of that:
France didn't surrender in 1915 with a significant part of territory occupied,
The USSR didn't throw in the towel,
Nazi Germany didn't give up in '44, Korea fought on, etc, etc

That our press seems to be clamoring for, lets be honest, surrender shows how disconnected they are from the reality of national struggle and how little they know about history.
Not every war is France in 1940 (and even they fought on)


edit (2): Seems Lithuania is starting to block transit of stuff to Kaliningrad.

Barrister

Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on June 20, 2022, 02:23:30 PMedit (2): Seems Lithuania is starting to block transit of stuff to Kaliningrad.

Apparently it's only items subject to EU sanctions - which is about 50% of all rail shipments to Kaliningrad.
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Josephus

#9124
Quote from: Tonitrus on June 20, 2022, 12:30:13 PM
Quote from: Berkut on June 20, 2022, 10:56:49 AMStalemate is Ukraine winning.

I am concerned that the "honeymoon" period for Europe is over, as far as the public/emotional response to the war.

Yeah, almost every news/talkie bit I see from sources like Deutsche Welle (the english version) seem to be including "well, surely Ukraine will have negotiate/cede territory at some point, right?".

I said the other day. Early on, it was "let's find an exit plan for Putin." Now it's becoming "let's find an exit plan for Zelenskyy."

I'm also not sure I agree that the longer this goes on it's better for Ukraine. Despite the embargo, for the most part, life continues on for most Russians. Ukranians are obviously feeling the pain more. There may come a time, when ordinary Ukranians in the west say, "you know what? We never liked the Donbass region, anyway." Sometimes you need to remove the part that ails you.
Civis Romanus Sum

"My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world." Jack Layton 1950-2011

Berkut

I don't think anyone said it was "better for Ukraine". War is never "better". It's war. It is terrible.

But from the standpoint of the military struggle, a stalemate is a win for the Ukraine. They are the defender after all, their goal is to hold on and stop the agressor from winning.

Life continued on for most Americans during the Vietnam War. Life continued on for most Brits during the American Revolution. That didn't mean the war continuing on in each of those cases was not indicative of it going badly for the side that had to *win* to win, not just not lose.

That does not mean its all sunshine and roses for the people of Ukraine. It isn't, and it sucks. Indeed, it sucks for them a lot more then it sucks for the average people Russia. But the average people in Russia are not fighting for their homes.

You might be right that there comes a time when a negotiated peace is seen as desirable by Ukrainians. That won't reflect a win for Russia though, anymore then the "negotiated peace" at the Treaty of Paris was a win for the Brits, or whatever deal the US made with North Vietnam was a win for the Americans.
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Zanza

Germany delivered the first self-propelled heavy howitzers PzH 2000 now, so while we may still not deliver enough, at least we finally delivered heavy weapons.

Barrister

Quote from: Josephus on June 21, 2022, 05:54:10 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on June 20, 2022, 12:30:13 PM
Quote from: Berkut on June 20, 2022, 10:56:49 AMStalemate is Ukraine winning.

I am concerned that the "honeymoon" period for Europe is over, as far as the public/emotional response to the war.

Yeah, almost every news/talkie bit I see from sources like Deutsche Welle (the english version) seem to be including "well, surely Ukraine will have negotiate/cede territory at some point, right?".

I said the other day. Early on, it was "let's find an exit plan for Putin." Now it's becoming "let's find an exit plan for Zelenskyy."

I'm also not sure I agree that the longer this goes on it's better for Ukraine. Despite the embargo, for the most part, life continues on for most Russians. Ukranians are obviously feeling the pain more. There may come a time, when ordinary Ukranians in the west say, "you know what? We never liked the Donbass region, anyway." Sometimes you need to remove the part that ails you.

I think that unlikely to be honest.

This is the second / third invasion of Ukraine by Russia.  First Crime (then Donbas), and now this.  Putin has now made numerous statements about how Ukraine is an illegitimate state, how it's all a part of historic Russia, how Ukrainians are just little Russians, and so on.  And since virtually all Ukrainians know Russian, is all easily understood by them.

If Ukrainians seriously thought "well if we just give up the Donbas then we can have eternal peace" then maybe they'd be having that discussion.  But instead it's understood by all that Russia is an existential threat - that Russia wants to dominate/control the entire country.
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Barrister

Quote from: Zanza on June 21, 2022, 11:43:52 AMGermany delivered the first self-propelled heavy howitzers PzH 2000 now, so while we may still not deliver enough, at least we finally delivered heavy weapons.

:yeah:
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The Minsky Moment

Quote from: Berkut on June 21, 2022, 07:57:37 AMI don't think anyone said it was "better for Ukraine". War is never "better". It's war. It is terrible.

But from the standpoint of the military struggle, a stalemate is a win for the Ukraine. They are the defender after all, their goal is to hold on and stop the agressor from winning.
 . . .
You might be right that there comes a time when a negotiated peace is seen as desirable by Ukrainians. That won't reflect a win for Russia though, anymore then the "negotiated peace" at the Treaty of Paris was a win for the Brits, or whatever deal the US made with North Vietnam was a win for the Americans.

The immediate news tends to dominate perception, and the immediate news is a brutal slugfest in and around Severodonetsk.

That shouldn't distract from the bigger picture.  The bigger picture is that Russia lost the war 2 months ago, and what is happening now is an effort to double down and salvage something from the disaster. 

Russia's war goal was to eliminate Ukraine as an independent nation - it not only spectacularly failed to do so, its actions strongly reinforced and strengthened Ukrainian nationhood.  Russia's secondary goal was to strengthen its overall geopolitical position vs the West - again, another enormous failure as NATO has been strengthened and significantly enlarged at Russia's considerable expense.

The war has now become about what bits of Ukraine Russia can successfully hack off Ukraine as a consolation prize for its strategic disaster.  Whatever the result of that ends up - it will not be worth the enormous financial and human cost paid. The best result is a slightly enlarged Russian territory, extending over devastated and depopulated areas that will further tax a horribly depleted Russian economy, patrolled by a military whose offensive capacity will be fatally crippled for years to come.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

Berkut

Agreed. All the outcomes from here out are various flavors of abject failure on the part of Russia and Putin.
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Barrister

Quote from: Berkut on June 21, 2022, 12:45:23 PMAgreed. All the outcomes from here out are various flavors of abject failure on the part of Russia and Putin.

I think I'm pretty bullish on Ukraine, but it's still possible for Russia to win this war.

Putting aside the possibility of a Ukrainian collapse, but it goes something like this:  as western nations grow exhausted (or bored) of the war supplies to Ukraine start to slow up.  The Zelenskyy government decides to make peace, losing the western quarter of the nation.  Given sky-high energy prices western nations quickly lift most sanctions on Russia now that the war is over.  Ukrainian accession to the EU gets bogged down.  Other ex-soviet states quickly fall even more deeply into Russia's orbit.  Given the lack of sanctions, and aforementioned sky-high energy prices, Russia rebuilds its military and prestige.
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Crazy_Ivan80

Quote from: Barrister on June 21, 2022, 12:58:27 PM
Quote from: Berkut on June 21, 2022, 12:45:23 PMAgreed. All the outcomes from here out are various flavors of abject failure on the part of Russia and Putin.

I think I'm pretty bullish on Ukraine, but it's still possible for Russia to win this war.

Putting aside the possibility of a Ukrainian collapse, but it goes something like this:  as western nations grow exhausted (or bored) of the war supplies to Ukraine start to slow up.  The Zelenskyy government decides to make peace, losing the western quarter of the nation.  Given sky-high energy prices western nations quickly lift most sanctions on Russia now that the war is over.  Ukrainian accession to the EU gets bogged down.  Other ex-soviet states quickly fall even more deeply into Russia's orbit.  Given the lack of sanctions, and aforementioned sky-high energy prices, Russia rebuilds its military and prestige.

and then invades again and takes the rest, cause the west has been proven to be weak.

Threviel

The thing is that if Russia is allowed to win and take territory from Ukraine it will show that wars of aggression is a strategy that can be gotten away with. That's a can of worms that I don't think the west will stomach.


Barrister

Quote from: Threviel on June 21, 2022, 01:41:42 PMThe thing is that if Russia is allowed to win and take territory from Ukraine it will show that wars of aggression is a strategy that can be gotten away with. That's a can of worms that I don't think the west will stomach.



Reportedly the Bosnian Serbs were ready to declare independence once Ukraine fell...
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